In the Presidential Elections held in Finland on 11 February 2024, Alexander Stubb of the center-right National Coalition Party narrowly defeated Pekka Haavisto of the liberal Green Party. According to data from the Ministry of Justice; Stubb received 51.6% of the votes in the second round, beating Haavisto who received 48.4% of the votes. Finland’s new president will be responsible for the country’s security and foreign policy, including its attitude towards Russia, with which the country shares a long border. Describing the post as “the greatest honor of his life”, Stubb said:[1]
“I feel calm and humble, but of course I am also extremely happy and grateful that Finns voted in such large numbers and that I will serve as president of the Republic of Finland.”
The 55-year-old Stubb, who was prime minister in 2014-2015 and began his political career as an MEP in the European Parliament in 2004, will be Finland’s 13th president since it gained independence from the Russian Empire in 1917. Shortly after becoming prime minister, Stubb served as finance minister before stepping down from Finnish politics altogether in 2017. He has also previously served as foreign minister and minister for European affairs and foreign trade. He holds a PhD in international relations from the London School of Economics and has been a professor at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy, since 2020.[2]
During his campaign, Stubb said that Finland’s priorities include taking a tough stance against Russia’s current leadership, strengthening security ties with Washington, and helping Ukraine on both military and civilian levels. In addition to the presidency, the National Coalition Party holds the posts of prime minister, foreign minister and defense minister in the government.
Finnish voters are also concerned about the sudden increase in the number of refugees crossing the border with Russia. Many in Finland believe that Russia is retaliating against Finland’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) with migrants. Moscow has warned of “counter-measures” if Finland joins NATO. Beyond the Russian issue, there is another source of concern for Finnish voters. This is the possibility that former President Donald J. Trump, who has openly criticized the alliance and suggested that the United States (US) could leave NATO, could win the presidential elections in November.[3]
In late 2023, Finland’s decision to close checkpoints on its border with Russia was also negatively received by Moscow. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told reporters, “They have closed the border. How can we react to this? Finnish citizens will suffer. We can only comment on rational decisions.” Grushko continued his remarks as follows:[4]
“In rational decisions at least some logic can be sought. But sometimes decisions are irrational. Ask these questions to our Finnish colleagues. Why did they decide to close the border? If we look at the figures, about 700 migrants tried to cross the Russian-Finnish border during this period. In the same period, 387,000 people tried to cross the borders of the European Union.”
The Presidency is an important political office in Finland, a country of 5.6 million inhabitants. Unlike in most European countries, the Finnish President has executive authority to formulate foreign and security policy together with the government. However, Stubb is expected to stay out of day-to-day politics and stay away from domestic political bickering while acting as the spiritual leader of the nation. At a press conference in Helsinki, Stubb was asked by the Associated Press about the state of the Army and whether he would be a commander in practice. Stubb responded as follows:[5]
“We have one of the strongest military forces in Europe. Finland has a military force of 280,000 through wartime reservists. This number is increased by about 900,000 men and women who have received military training through compulsory military service. When the Cold War ended, Finland did not downsize its army, on the contrary, it developed it. We will play our role in the Alliance (NATO). People trust us and they know that we are serious about our defense for quite obvious reasons. Will I be an active commander-in-chief? Yes, I intend to do that.”
Stubb, a strong pro-European supporter of Ukraine with a tough stance against Russia, favors cooperation with NATO, such as allowing the transfer of nuclear weapons through Finnish territory and the permanent stationing of some NATO troops in Finland, but does not support the storage of nuclear weapons in Finland.[6]
As a new NATO member, Finland will integrate its security policies into NATO under the new President Alexander Stubb. Noting that NATO countries should allocate 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defense, Stubb argued that his country has a strategic importance for the West. In his first press conference in his new capacity, President Alexander Stubb said that he would have virtually no relations with Russia as long as its involvement in Ukraine continued:[7]
“We have a relationship on a practical level between our border guards in this extremely difficult situation. We also have a relationship on a diplomatic level between our diplomats and bureaucrats.” In conclusion, the election of Alexander Stubb as President of Finland, a representative of the center-right, at a time when Finland broke its long-standing neutrality and joined NATO, is one of the most recent events in the anti-Russian consolidation within the European Union. The course of the US elections in the fall will add a new dimension to the debate on Finland’s NATO integration.
[1] “Finland’s Presidential Election Won by Ex-Prime Minister Alexander Stubb”, CNN, https://t.ly/EsNaq, (Date of Access: 14.02.2024).
[2] Tanner, J, “New NATO Member Finland Elects A President Set To Keep Up Hard Line On Neighboring Russia”, Associated Press, https://apnews.com/article/finland-presidential-election-stubb-haavisto-9aa61dcd0eca72b3e68a2d55c005911b, (Date of Access: 14.02.2024).
[3] Solomon, E., et al, “Finland Elects Alexander Stubb President as It Ushers in NATO Era”, New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/11/world/europe/finland-election-nato.html, (Date of Access: 14.02.2024).
[4]“Russia: Finland’s Decision to Close the Border Harms the Finns”, Sputnik, https://sputniknews.com.tr/20231128/rusya-finlandiyanin-siniri-kapatma-karari-finlere-zarar-verir-1077883919.html, (Date of Access: 14.02.2024).
[5] Tanner, J, “New NATO Member Finland Elects A President Set To Keep Up Hard Line On Neighboring Russia”, Associated Press, https://apnews.com/article/finland-presidential-election-stubb-haavisto-9aa61dcd0eca72b3e68a2d55c005911b, (Date of Access: 14.02.2024).
[6] “Alexander Stubb, Who Supports NATO’s Aggressive Policies, Becomes Finland’s New President”, Sputnik, https://sputniknews.com.tr/20240212/finlandiyada-cumhurbaskani-secimini-eski-basbakan-stubb-onde-tamamladi-1080635888.html, (Date of Access: 14.02.2024).
[7]“First Russian Message from Finland’s New President Stubb”, Sputnik, https://sputniknews.com.tr/20240212/finlandiyanin-yeni-cumhurbaskani-stubbdan-ilk-rusya-mesaji-1080658456.html, (Date of Access: 14.02.2024).
