Russia’s intervention in Ukraine not only affects its immediate geographical vicinity but also relatively distant regions such as Africa. The cessation of grain and fertilizer trade due to the war has further complicated issues in Africa, where some countries are already struggling with famine. In other words, despite being perceived as a distant geography, the continent of Africa is deeply impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Based on this impact and the influence of political objectives of African leaders, some leaders of African countries have engaged in diplomatic initiatives aimed at achieving peace between Russia and Ukraine. While it is not expected that these initiatives will be effective in the short term, the visits have generated significant international attention and once again highlighted the fact that the war affects not only the immediate region but also different geographies of the world. Another interesting point is that while the African delegation continues its engagements, Ukraine is being bombed. The delegation has had to take shelter in bunkers.
As evident, prominent leaders of the African continent, under the presidency of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, have organized diplomatic visits to both Ukraine and Russia. The delegation includes President Ramaphosa himself, as well as Senegal’s leader Macky Sall, Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema, and Comoros President Azali Assoumani. Participation from countries such as Uganda and Egypt has also been ensured. The delegation held meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Russian and Ukrainian leaders conveyed the terms of their respective plans to their African counterparts. In addition, the United States and the United Kingdom have cautiously expressed support for the “Africa Peace Initiative.” Ramaphosa shared with the public that United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guteress has been informed about the initiative and the plan.
There are some points of criticism regarding the visit. For instance, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Ugandan leader Yoweri Museveni were initially scheduled to participate in the discussions but withdrew their decisions at the last moment. Some argue that the withdrawal of these two leaders from the delegation has affected the credibility of the diplomatic mission.
During the visit, Ramaphosa highlighted the importance of the diplomatic mission, emphasizing that it was the first time African leaders undertook a peace mission outside the continent. He also emphasized that the delegation maintained a neutral stance. According to African leaders, this stance demonstrates the significance of the mission and the delegation’s desire to gain the trust of both Russia and Ukraine. However, as mentioned earlier, it should be noted that the diplomatic mission faced various criticisms.
The peace plan proposed by African leaders consists of 10 articles. The draft includes provisions for the preservation of the territorial integrity of both Russia and Ukraine, as well as the continuation of grain imports. The plan calls for the reduction of violence in the conflict, the immediate commencement of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the release of war criminals, and increased humanitarian support.
When considering the needs of Africa, the reopening of grain movements in the Black Sea for the import of grain from Russia or Ukraine and diplomatic engagement have emerged as the most prominent topics. According to the African Development Bank, the war has created a shortfall of approximately 30 million tons in grain supply to Africa. The continent is also facing a shortage of fertilizers due to the conflict.
Despite these calls, Ukrainian President Zelensky has expressed that Ukraine will not participate in peace negotiations while its territories are under occupation. Ukraine reiterates the call for the Russian Army to withdraw from the occupied territories before any talks or plans.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has announced that they accept the main outlines of the African plan. Putin, on the other hand, stated that Russia is always ready to negotiate with Ukraine and claimed that it is the Kiev government that rejects negotiations. He conveyed Russia’s positions to the African leaders during their meetings. Putin reminded that the Minsk Agreement was signed between Russia and Ukraine, and according to him, it is Ukraine that has “abandoned” the peace table. He also emphasized that the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic in Ukrainian territories have been recognized by Russia after an 8-year process. According to Putin, the recognition of these entities by Russia is in accordance with international law and the UN Charter.
In this context, Putin emphasized that the UN Charter includes the right to self-determination and argued that the Luhansk and Donetsk administrations could declare their independence. After Kiev responded to this situation in Donbass with military force, Putin stated that Russia was exercising its legitimate right to self-defense as stated in Article 51 of the UN Charter.
There are also various topics being examined and evaluated regarding the visits of African leaders to Russia and Ukraine. These include Russia’s and Ukraine’s relations with African states. Furthermore, South Africa’s central role in the diplomatic visits has led to a reevaluation of relations along the Moscow-Cape Town axis. However, due to the close relations between the parties, the purpose of the delegation has been questioned by Western circles.
Russia’s relations with African states have developed in parallel with the onset and deepening of the Ukraine crisis. Following the annexation of Crimea by Russia, which led to its isolation in the international community, Russia has sought the support of African countries. Especially considering the votes condemning Russia’s occupation in the United Nations General Assembly, it is understood why Moscow needed the support of Africa. While some African states did not accept these resolutions, there were also African countries like Kenya that either accepted or abstained from the decision.
Russia’s increasing visibility in African countries such as Mali and the Central African Republic is seen as a way for Moscow to address its deteriorating relations with the West in Africa. Russia organizes summits with African countries to enhance relations and further cooperation. The first summit took place in Sochi in 2019. It has been announced that the second summit will be held in St. Petersburg in July 2023. In fact, the second summit was originally planned to take place earlier but was postponed due to the war in Ukraine.
Putin, especially from his second term as president, aimed to develop relations with African countries. It should be remembered that with the establishment of the Russian Federation, Moscow’s focus shifted to its immediate neighborhood, and relations with the continent took a back seat on the agenda. This void was filled by Western countries. However, with Putin assuming the leadership position after Boris Yeltsin, interest in Africa increased. The memory of Soviet Union-Africa relations during the Cold War era has diminished the difference between Russia and other actors. Particularly, some countries still value the Soviet Union’s support for national liberation movements, providing weapons, and training independent/national liberation leaders in the Soviet Union during the decolonization era. Therefore, the experience of the Cold War is among the factors that facilitate Putin’s Africa policy. It is also evident that Russia is one of the leading actors in arms trade with the continent, which further demonstrates its engagement in Africa.
Wagner Group, which is considered as a paramilitary force/private military company by some sources, also plays a role in increasing Russia’s visibility and hence its influence in Africa. Especially in countries like Mali, the Central African Republic, and Libya, Wagner fills the void left by France’s withdrawal from certain countries. In Mali, for example, Wagner is involved in combating terrorists, while in other instances, it is involved in protecting regimes and securing mining operations.
Furthermore, there have been occasional protests in certain countries that are pro-Russia and anti-France, which are frequently covered in Western media. However, the uncertain future of Wagner, the group that enhances Russia’s visibility in Africa, may raise questions about Moscow’s influence. This is because on June 24, 2023, the Wagner group rebelled against the Putin regime and took control of the city of Rostov. They even advanced towards Moscow. The uprising of Wagner against the Kremlin will also lead to discussions about the fate of their activities in the continent. Lavrov has already stated that the responsibility for the contracts signed with Wagner lies with the African countries themselves. For example, Wagner operates in the Central African Republic. Additionally, alongside the Wagner militants, Lavrov has emphasized that there are hundreds of Russian military advisors working in the country.
At this point, it is necessary to examine Ukraine’s relations with Africa. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba occasionally undertakes visits to African countries. For example, during his visit to Ethiopia, Kuleba called on African leaders to abandon their neutral/indifferent stance towards Russia’s war against Ukraine. Some African countries, including Ethiopia, have remained neutral in the voting of the United Nations General Assembly resolutions that oppose Russia’s policies.
Kuleba expressing Ukraine’s discomfort with the stance exhibited by certain African states and calling on African countries to support Ukraine is significant. He states that the neutral stance of African leaders actually implies a violation of the principle of inviolability of borders in their own regions and remaining indifferent to major crimes that may occur in their own regions. In this context, in December 2022, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister called for support for the 10-point peace plan prepared by President Zelensky. Kuleba emphasizes that for any peace plan to be accepted by Kyiv, respect for Ukraine’s territorial integrity is required, and the demand for an immediate ceasefire will not be accepted.
In addition to the demand for support in the war, Kuleba also aims to expand relations and cooperation in various fields. He emphasizes that maintaining trade relations in areas such as energy and technology will mutually benefit both parties.
As mentioned earlier, during his visits in May 2023, Kuleba also met with officials in Morocco and Rwanda. In October 2022, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister visited Senegal, Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Kenya. It is evident from these engagements that Ukraine, despite Russia’s increased presence in Africa, is also taking an offensive approach to develop its relations with African countries. In this regard, the Ukrainian government has announced their goal of opening 10 new embassies in Africa, starting with Rwanda and Mozambique. They have also expressed that agricultural imports to the continent will increase and military relations will develop. Kuleba frequently states that strong cooperation is aimed between African countries and Ukraine, which should be based on mutual respect and common interests. During his May 2023 visits, Kuleba also met with officials from the African Union and announced the goal of creating a new roadmap for relations.
One of the underlying reasons for Ukraine’s goal of gaining support from different regions like Africa is the desire for the Russia-Ukraine War not to be perceived as a Western war. Kiev also occasionally expresses that it has not been able to secure the support of African countries against Russia. It should be noted that Zelensky addressed the African Union Summit in June 2023. With only 4 out of 55 heads of state attending the summit, it can be said that African leaders approached Zelensky with caution.
During the virtual meeting, Zelensky stated that they are aware of the importance of grain imports for Africa. He claimed that Russia is responsible for the increase in food prices on the continent and mentioned that food prices have risen worldwide, but African countries are the most affected. Zelensky expressed their desire for the development of relations with African countries and assessed these countries as hostages of Russia’s war against Ukraine. He also mentioned that Ukraine will appoint a Special Representative for Africa who will start his duty soon. Additionally, he stated that the outreach to African countries will continue and called for a summit focusing on political and economic areas between African countries and Ukraine.
It is alleged that the initiative by African leaders aims to resume grain trade rather than providing a platform for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. It is worth noting that South Africa plays a key role in this regard. In recent times, military exercises have taken place between Russia and South Africa. South Africa has drawn criticism from the Western world for its abstention in the United Nations General Assembly resolutions condemning Russia’s occupation.
Furthermore, President Ramaphosa’s invitation to Putin to visit South Africa during the BRICS Summit scheduled for August 2023 has also sparked various criticisms. However, it is not yet clear whether Putin will visit this country to attend the BRICS Summit. The issue of Putin being handed over to the International Criminal Court (ICC) will come up, increasing pressure on the Cape Town government. It should be remembered that the ICC has issued an arrest warrant against the Russian leader on charges of international crimes committed in Ukraine. Additionally, it is known that some American officials have raised allegations of South Africa supplying weapons to Russia. Although Cape Town has stated that it did not take sides in the war, these allegations also bring about discussions on the neutrality of Africa’s peace initiative.
Indeed, the desire to secure the import of grain and fertilizer has influenced Africa’s peace initiative. The disruption of grain and fertilizer trade due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict has further complicated the existing challenges of food scarcity in some African countries. Ensuring a stable supply of these essential commodities has been a key concern for African leaders, as they recognize the impact of the conflict on their agricultural sector and food security. By advocating for peace and diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine, African leaders aim to address not only the immediate crisis but also the long-term stability of agricultural trade and food availability in the region.
