For years, Central Asian countries have experienced emigration due to various reasons, such as economic and security concerns, as well as the desire to improve living standards. Russia has long been the primary destination for migrants from Central Asia. Geographic proximity, along with historical and cultural ties between Central Asia and Russia, have played a significant role in this migration process. The widespread use of the Russian language in Central Asian countries, and its status as an official language in some, facilitates the adaptation of these migrants to life in Russia. Moreover, Russia’s cultural connections with Central Asia are another factor influencing migrants to choose Russia as their initial destination.
However, since the 2000s, the foreign policies of Central Asian countries, migration-restricting policies in Russia, and the increasing global migration trends have significantly impacted the migration flow between Central Asia and Russia, redirecting it towards other countries. For instance, during German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s recent visit to Central Asia, several agreements were signed between Uzbekistan and Germany to facilitate the migration of Uzbeks to Germany. The remittances sent by migrants play a crucial role as a significant economic resource for Central Asian countries. Therefore, migration agreements with other countries hold critical importance for these nations.
Restrictive policies targeting migrants in many regions of Russia can be seen as a significant factor influencing changes in migration flows. For example, in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), migrants are prohibited from working in the transportation sector. In several regions, labor restrictions have led to labor shortages. For instance, Krasnodar, a major hub for agricultural production in Russia, is facing a shortage of agricultural workers. According to the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Economics, the country currently has a labor shortage of approximately 4.8 million workers.[1]
The policies faced by migrants have the potential to impact Russia’s economy in the long term. Indeed, with Russia already burdened by the ongoing war with Ukraine, labor shortages in various sectors could further negatively affect the economy. Moreover, Russia’s new migration policies do not include measures to reverse this situation, and in fact, they make it even more difficult, particularly for the large number of Central Asian migrants.
The Russia-Ukraine war has significantly reduced the number of migrants entering the country. In 2021, net migration was 500,000, but it dropped to 62,000 in 2022. Among the main reasons for this decline are the decrease in wages following Western sanctions and the conscription of migrants into the Russian military.[2]
The uncertainty about when the war will end and the possibility of further tightening of Western sanctions on Russia may lead to a further decline in migration from Central Asia to Russia. However, in order to ensure the labor force needed for Russia’s post-war economic recovery, changes in migration policies and facilitation of the situation for Central Asian migrants in Russia are also possible. The stability of diplomatic relations between Russia and Central Asian countries demonstrates Russia’s commitment to maintaining its ties with the region, which can also influence the situation of migrants in Russia.
Following the terrorist attack in Moscow in March 2024, which resulted in the deaths of 144 people, Russia has taken steps to tighten its migration policies. Additionally, migrant workers face constant document checks, workplace raids, dismissals, flight delays, and long queues at the Kazakhstan border.[3]
As in many countries, in Russia, increased anti-migrant sentiment can be observed due to economic uncertainties, security concerns, and tensions arising from cultural differences. Considering that more than half of the migrants in the country come from Central Asia, it is foreseeable that this wave of anti-migrant sentiment will affect them the most. Recently, the Russian Federal Assembly passed a law that grants the police greater authority to intervene with migrants, indicating that the situation will be challenging for migrants in the future.
The position of migrants in Russia is not limited to the economy. Currently, the death rate in Russia is nearly twice the birth rate. This means that Russia is likely to face demographic challenges in the future.[4] If the imbalance between these rates continues in the long term, the labor migration gap in Russia may increase, and migrants could become a key group in filling this gap. Demographic issues may potentially be addressed through migration. In this case, Russia may need to make adjustments to its migration policies.
Despite changes in the number of migrants from Central Asia to Russia and the tightening of Russia’s migration policies, Russia remains one of the most preferred countries for migrants. Given that the Russian economy is in a better position compared to Central Asian countries, despite the ongoing war, and that there is a labor shortage in the country, it is natural for migrants seeking economic prosperity to choose Russia. The flow of remittances sent by migrants plays a crucial role in the economic resources of Central Asian countries, making it a decisive factor in their migration choices.
However, the fact that Central Asian countries predominantly send migrants to Russia increases their economic dependency on Russia and allows Russia to maintain its political influence over these countries. Relationships with other countries and migration agreements open the door for these nations to become more independent from Russia, while also providing migrants with more alternatives. If these migrants turn to other countries, it could reduce Central Asian countries’ economic dependency on Russia and weaken Russia’s position in the region.
[1] Ibragimova, G. (2024, August 1). Why are central Asian migrant workers spurning Russia? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/07/russia-central-asia-migrants?lang=en, (Access Date: 08.11.2024).
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
[4] Ibid.
