Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) presents an interview with Assistant Professor Jong Eun Lee, Assistant Professor of Political Science at North Greenville University, to evaluate North Korea’s military and economic cooperation with Russia and the impact of this alliance on regional security strategies.
1.How might North Korea’s decision to send troops to Russia influence the security strategies of other Asian countries?
The Asian country most affected by North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia is, South Korea. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War, the South Korean government has attempted to walk a tightrope in strategically aligning with the West’s stance toward supporting Ukraine, but also avoiding direct conflict with Russia. However, the growing alignment of the Russia-North Korea strategic relationship has increased the dilemma for the South Korean government on whether to respond in a reciprocal manner; expanding South Korea’s support for Ukraine. Specifically, the South Korean government is considering whether to provide direct, “defensive” and “offensive” arms to Ukraine in response to the news of North Korean troop presence in the combat zone.
China is also placed in a strategic dilemma. Though China is often perceived as strategically aligned with North Korea and Russia, China has kept relatively more distance in direct involvement with Russia’s war in Ukraine. China may be wary of North Korea’s growing military partnership with Russia, as it could signal a decline of China’s own influence over the North Korean regime.
For Japan, a security concern it shares with South Korea is the transactional benefits North Korea may receive in return from Russia. Japan and South Korea are concerned that Russia may provide advanced military technology (space, satellite, nuclear) to North Korea, which would enhance North Korea’s ICBM capability. In fact, North Korea conducted another ICBM test, increasing concerns for Japan.
2.Given North Korea’s history of international isolation, how do you think this alliance with Russia might impact its global standing?
My perception is the Russia-DPRK alliance is more beneficial for Pyongyang. Since the Russo-Ukraine War North Korea has mitigated its international isolation through increasing its strategic partnership with Russia. Even if this description is perhaps exaggerated, the so-called “trilateral partnership” (Russia-China-North Korea, or alternatively, Russia-Iran-North Korea) elevates North Korea’s status as a third member of an anti-West, revisionist alliance/bloc.
Though some critics might view North Korea’s decision to ally with Russia as only solidifying North Korea’s isolation from the West-led “liberal international order”, I think North Korea’s global status from an “isolated hermit kingdom” to a proactive member of an emerging “revisionist bloc” is a clear improvement of its global status.
Furthermore, I analyze that North Korea’s aspiration to become accepted internationally as a defector nuclear state (similar to Israel, and Pakistan) has become bolstered by its strategic partnership with Russia, as Russia has used its UN Security Council’s veto to protect North Korea from further UN and international sanctions.
3.Beyond military support, do you see potential for North Korea to strengthen economic ties with Russia? If so, what types of economic benefits could North Korea expect from such collaboration?
Recently, there have been a number of analyses and discussions that North Korea continues to suffer socioeconomic challenges, increased discontent of its citizens toward the regime’s domestic policies. Though Russia’s export of food and energy has mitigated North Korea’s economic challenge, the North Korean regime would likely welcome more economic aid in return for its military deployment.
In my view, there are three different types of earnings:
One Type of Benefit: Russia may provide wages to North Korean soldiers for their service in the Russia-Ukraine War. The North Korean regime could collect their soldiers’ wages to purchase foreign imports (from Russia and other countries).
Second Type of Benefit: North Korea may request Russia’s technical support in upgrading its infrastructures. For example, North Korea’s power grids and transportation (railways, roads, bridges) are in need of repairs/maintenance and would benefit from Russia’s assistance (exporting of spare parts, sending of Russian engineers/technicians).
Third Type of Benefit: North Korea may also request assistance in improvements of its agricultural capability. One possibility is the importation of fertilizers. Another possibility is receiving Russia’s agricultural technology, such as “agricultural drones.”
