On Tuesday, October 29, 2024, South Korean Vice Minister Kim Soo-kyung said that Russia’s long-running war with Ukraine is not a distant conflict but a war that could “directly” affect national security.[i]
Kim claimed that if Russia transfers advanced military technology, including intercontinental ballistic missile technology, to North Korea in exchange for Pyongyang’s troop deployment, this could pose a serious threat to the security of the Korean Peninsula. The Deputy Minister stated that the government will prepare various response scenarios and options through close coordination within the South Korea-United States (US) alliance.[ii]
The fact that the effects of the Russia-Ukraine War may spread to the Asia-Pacific or pose a threat is also linked to the attitude of the leaders within the framework of the changing political and economic policies of countries with globalization. While North Korea is alleged to be indirectly supporting Russia with various weapons, at the same time providing troops for the war in Ukraine has the potential to change the dynamics of the war.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol stated that North Korea’s troop deployment in Russia poses a security threat to both his country and the world.[iii] It can be said that the developing relations between Russia and North Korea have been mostly in the military field, especially since 2023. As North Korea provided Russia with artillery and ammunition, North Korea also benefited from Russia’s technological support such as satellite development, missiles and fighter jets. Moreover, in the same year, Kim Jong-un visited fighter jet factories and naval bases during his visit to Russia. This means that security cooperation between the two countries has taken a step forward.
Considering the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement” signed between Russia and North Korea on June 18, 2024 during the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin, it could be said that Russia, which is trying to be isolated by the West and the US, provides the support it seeks from North Korea on the basis of this agreement.
The Pentagon reported that North Korea has sent nearly 10,000 troops to Russia “over the next few weeks” to train and fight in the war in Ukraine, a move that Western leaders say will exacerbate the nearly three-year war and shake relations in the region. Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh stated that some North Korean troops have approached Ukraine and are believed to be heading to the Kursk border region, where Russia is fighting to repel the Ukrainian offensive. North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed Ukrainian intelligence reports that some North Korean military units were already in the Kursk region.[1]
It can be concluded that North Korea’s support for Russia, as opposed to Western actors’ support for Ukraine during the war, could weaken the power of the US, which is the hegemonic power in the international arena, and have a significant impact on the transition to a multipolar world. It can also be argued that the US military aid to Ukraine served as a catalyst for Russia’s search for allies. Besides, North Korea sees the hegemony of the United States as a threat on the way to world peace and sides with Russia.
Meanwhile, South Korea, an ally of the United States, which characterizes Russia as an “invader”, has provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine, but no direct military assistance. North Korea’s cooperation with Russia and its move to send troops both raise concerns about South Korea’s security and play a critical role in the West’s policies towards the Asia-Pacific, as they have the potential to shape the direction of the war.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Polish President Andrzej Duda condemned North Korea’s sending troops to Russia for its war against Ukraine as a global security threat. Addressing a joint press conference with Duda, Yoon said that the two leaders held a summit and agreed to sign a new contract for the export of South Korea’s K2 tanks to Poland by the end of the year. Yoon noted, “We agreed that North Korea’s sending troops to Russia is a direct violation of UN Security Council resolutions, the UN Charter, and a provocation that threatens global security by going beyond the Korean Peninsula and Europe”.[2]
South Korea, which has also joined the Western sanctions against Russia, aims to increase Asia-Europe security cooperation by contacting Poland and mobilizing NATO and the EU in this regard. Seeking diplomatic support, South Korea is trying to limit and prevent North Korea in terms of external support.
Russia’s need for manpower and North Korea’s need for foreign currency meet each other. North Korea’s military support to Russia has the potential to change the direction of the war. On the other hand, South Korea is deepening its security-centered policies in line with its close relations with Western actors.
While there is speculation that the war will potentially end after the US presidential elections, it can also be argued that the recent developments may trigger a world war on a larger scale rather than a war between Russia and Ukraine. In this case, it can be claimed that the hegemony of the United States and the policies of various organizations or institutions that constitute alternative power unions will be clarified with the US elections and that the foreign policy approach of the United States will be the determining factor.
To conclude, it seems inevitable that further escalation of tensions between North Korea, which supports Russia with the goal of pursuing a power struggle against the United States, and South Korea, which will pursue policies in accordance with regional security concerns regarding international law. A Russia-Ukraine war could seriously affect not only Europe but also the security of the Asia-Pacific.
[1] “Russia to deploy 10,000 North Korean troops against Ukraine within ‘weeks’, Pentagon says”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/29/russia-north-korean-troops-ukraine-war, (Date of Access: 29.10.2024).
[2] “South Korea’s Yoon, Poland’s Duda condemn N. Korea troop dispatch to Russia”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/south-koreas-yoon-polands-duda-condemn-nkorea-troop-dispatch-russia-2024-10-24/, (Date of Access: 29.10.2024).
[i] “Russia-Ukraine war ‘directly’ affects South Korea’s security: vice unification minister”, Yonhap News Agency, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20241029007300315?section=national/politics, (Date of Access: 29.10.2024).
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] Ibid.
