In order to evaluate Northern Corridor Project’s importance and possible intersection of Russia and China’s economic and geopolitical interests, Ankara Centre for Crisis and Political Studies made an interview with Assoc. Prof. Chris Monday, Dongseo University. This interview is presented to your attention below.
1. Currently, Russia needs to provide a large amount of finance for the expansion, modernization and operation of the Northern Corridor. How do you see China’s economic and financial involvement in Russia in the long term in the context of Russia and the Belt and Road initiative?
The Russian news promotes the Kremlin’s efforts to modernize and improve transportation. But they face many hurdles: while the Mikhail Mishustin government has overcome the main sanction barriers, sooner or later the lack of Western technology will impact train, car, and aviation industries. Russian finances and know-how are limited by the war. And it’s not clear when European countries will lift their blockade. Currently, it’s hard for Westerners to travel to Russia at all. At least for me, it’s all but impossible. So how is Russia to provide a major international trade route? Moreover, during wartime there is the issue of Ukrainian and Western sabotage. At one time, Nordstaream was supposed to be a game-changer. China has been extremely reluctant to heavily invest in Russian infrastructure. The “Power of Siberia” gas pipelines took years of negotiations. It’s clear the Chinese would rather invest in Central Asian transport routes, but there are problems with this too,
2. What does the Belt and Road initiative mean for Russian foreign policy in Eastern European geopolitics?
China faces fierce opposition from the US security establishment. While they will not say it openly, Russia too has been fearful of the ONE belt and ONE road that threatened to recreate a silk road that bypassed Russia completely. “As readers of Marco Polo know, Samarkand was a civilizational center while Moscow was a backwater.”
3. What does the Northern Corridor mean for the Russian geo-economic balance of power in Central and Far Asia?
A Russian-based trade route would give enormous leverage to the Kremlin. Putin has made no secret that he sees trade as a geopolitical weapon. For years he used natural gas to obtain leverage over Ukraine, Georgia and other countries. Presumably, the Kremlin would exploit a Northern corridor to bring Central Asian countries back into line. This is one reason, why it would be looked at sceptically. By contrast, if China, Turkey and Europe focus on creating a Central Asian trade route, this could open up countries such as Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan that possess young vibrant populations. In theory this would be the shortest and cheapest route which could lift the economies of Asia at a time when the world is de-globalizing. Also this could facilitate the transition to solar panels and electric cars. But a Central Asian route also faces many uncertainties.
4. The security and stability of the Northern Corridor is of great importance for regional and global trade. The resolution of political and security issues in these tense regions is essential for the full realization of the Northern Corridor’s potential. What are Russia’s possible future steps in its part of the Belt and Road initiative?
Currently, Russia and China need one another. Russia needs China to get around sanctions. China needs Russia for help in its confrontation with the USA. But I doubt this necessitated partnership will be a basis for long term projects. The Chinese are not going to trust their long term economic livelihood to Putin. Moreover, there is no end in sight to the Ukrainian conflict. Any sort of peace would be short-term. Basically, prospects for the Northern Corridor are dim.
