The change of power in the Maldives may signal a significant shift in the regional balance of power. Mohamed Muizzu, who won the presidential elections, ran an “India Out” campaign and promised to remove some Indian military personnel serving in the country. Despite the pro-India stance of the previous president, Muizzu wants to reduce New Delhi’s influence in the country. In this context, his visit to China in January 2024 and the agreements signed afterwards are important.
China was Muizzu’s third state visit abroad since he became president last November, following trips to Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Moreover, Muizzu’s outlook towards India is not yet known. During Muizzu’s visit to China, the two countries signed at least 20 “key agreements” on the economy, infrastructure development and other areas, elevating bilateral relations to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership.[i] Subsequently, China pledged to send 920 million yuan in free aid to the Maldives. This suggests that the Maldives will begin to distance itself from India and increase China’s influence in the Indian Ocean.
In a joint statement, Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his country’s unwavering support to the Maldives in overcoming national challenges and promoting development. In particular, he recognized China’s steadfast support for the Maldives in its pursuit of national stability, sovereignty and territorial integrity.[ii] China is of particular economic importance to the Maldives.[iii]
Muizzu’s attitude towards India is clearly seen in his speech after his visit to China. Speaking to the media on his return from China, India’s regional rival, President Mohamed Muizzu said that the Maldives is not in any country’s backyard and that the Indian Ocean does not belong to a single country.[iv]
Muizzu believes that India’s military presence poses a threat to the security of the Maldives. Although bilateral relations are important in terms of tourism and health sector, the President of Maldives has an “anti-India” stance in foreign policy.
Another dispute started when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted on his old Twitter account, X, photos of himself hiking and snorkeling in the Indian archipelago of Lakshadweep, which his government believes has untapped tourism potential.[v] In response, three Maldives ministers’ comments about India on social media X were not welcomed by Indians. Muizzu subsequently suspended these ministers. In other words, although Muizzu is looking for alternatives to reduce Maldives’ dependence on India, he does not completely ignore its relations with its neighbor India. In the new era, the Maldives maintains close ties with India while maintaining close contacts with China as an alternative ally.
[i] Rabia Ali, “In Battle Between India and China, What Next for Maldives?”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/in-battle-between-india-and-china-what-next-for-maldives/3107837, (Access Date: 15.01.2024).
[ii] “China-Maldives Diplomatic Triumph: 20 Pivotal Agreements Despite India Strain”, International News and Views Corporation, https://www.internationalnewsandviews.com/china-maldives-diplomatic-triumph-20-pivotal-agreements-despite-india-strain/, (Access Date: 15.01.2024).
[iii] “China, Maldives Upgrade Ties with Infrastructure Deals in Pivot from India”, Al Jazeera Media Network, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/11/china-maldives-upgrade-ties-with-infrastructure-deals-in-pivot-from-india, (Access Date: 15.01.2024).
[iv] “Maldives Leader Says His Country’s Small Size Isn’t a License to Bully in Apparent Swipe at India”, The Associated Press, https://apnews.com/article/india-maldives-china-tourism-a70c4e133c19c0ef011df934d10356e9, (Access Date: 15.01.2024).
[v] “Maldives Leader Says His Country’s Small Size Isn’t a License to Bully in Apparent Swipe at India”, The Associated Press, https://apnews.com/article/india-maldives-china-tourism-a70c4e133c19c0ef011df934d10356e9, (Access Date: 15.01.2024).
