Recently, claims have strengthened that Russia’s next target could be Moldova following Ukraine. It is alleged that after two years since the war it started against Ukraine, Russia’s new objective is Moldova, particularly Transnistria.[i]
It should be noted that at the beginning of 2024, it was claimed that Moldova’s separatist Transnistria region would hold a referendum to seek joining the Russian Federation. Both the Moldovan government and the Ukrainian side have denied these claims, stating that there is no solid basis for them. Additionally, Ukraine’s ambassador to Chișinău, Marko Șevcenko, has assured that in the event of increased tension in Transnistria, Kyiv would provide full military support to Moldova.
Transnistria, supported by Russia in economic, political, and military terms, declared independence from Moldova in 1990. In a similar referendum held in 2006, Transnistria received overwhelming support for “joining” Russia and reiterated its desire to establish closer ties with Moscow. Neither the Moldovan government nor the international community has recognized referendums on independence or joining Russia
While Russia has not recognized Transnistria as an independent state so far, it has made critical statements regarding Moldova’s presence there. For instance, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mihail Galuzin emphasized that if Moldova attempts to resolve the Transnistrian issue by force, Russia has all the means to defend the [Russian] inhabitants in Transnistria.[ii] More importantly, Russia currently has a “peacekeeping” force consisting of up to 2,000 soldiers in the region. Since 1992, Russia has maintained a presence in Transnistria with two motorized rifle battalions from the Western Military District. Additionally, it is reported that there are thousands of paramilitary soldiers in the region, ready to act upon a call from Moscow.[iii]
According to a report prepared by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Transnistria might use the upcoming congress to initiate discussions regarding another referendum aimed at integration with Russia. In this context, Russian President Vladimir Putin could potentially announce the annexation of Transnistria during his speech at the Federal Assembly; however, at present, it is considered unlikely that Putin would go that far.
Currently, Moldova’s efforts to join the European Union are perceived by the Kremlin as a threat to its regional geopolitical interests. Moldova’s candidacy for EU membership, combined with the pro-European stance under President Maia Sandu, has further increased tensions in the region. As geopolitical rivalries continue, Moldova finds itself caught between competing spheres of influence. While the Moldovan government remains cautious in monitoring developments, the likelihood of further provocations and destabilization in the region is increasing.[iv]
The possibility that Russia’s next target could be Georgia is also rising. Following Russia’s attacks on Georgia’s separatist South Ossetia region in 2008 and Crimea in 2014, it launched a new operation targeting Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, in February 2022. During this period, Russia has also demanded that NATO cancel the membership commitments made to Ukraine and Georgia in 2008 and pledge not to deploy weapons near the Russian border.[v] Russia sees Georgia’s NATO membership as a move to gain control over critical energy infrastructure in the Caspian and Black Sea regions. Simply put, Georgia is Russia’s gateway to the south, which is why Moscow opposes Tbilisi’s formal alignment with the Western camp.
The potential NATO membership of Georgia and Russia’s responses through attacks on these countries have clearly indicated that the Black Sea has transformed into a new playground and crisis geography. Although the EU and NATO support Georgia, they do not overlook the Russian factor in the region. Lacking the necessary support from both the EU and NATO, countries like Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova feel increasingly isolated against Russia and are gradually losing faith in the West. If Russia achieves the outcome it desires from Ukraine, it may once again turn its attention to the North Caucasus. The West’s inability to respond adequately to Russia so far raises the likelihood of such a scenario unfolding.
In conclusion, Western powers, attempting to strike Russia in various fields, may favor the continuation of the crisis in the Black Sea. Therefore, the interaction of Moldova and Georgia with the West will only lead to increased regional tensions, making these countries targets for Moscow once again.
[i] “Putin ‘preparing for landgrab’ in another European country”, Metro, https://metro.co.uk/2024/02/23/putin-preparing-landgrab-another-european-country-20332430/, (Access Date: 24.08.2024).
[ii] Same place.
[iii] “Putin could be days away from launching new European invasion as war fears skyrocket”, Express, https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1870159/vladimir-putin-new-european-invasion-days, (Access Date: 24.08.2024).
[iv] “Russia’s Shadow Looms Over Transnistria: Potential Referendum Within Days Sparks Concerns in Moldova and NATO”, Novinite, https://t.ly/-pfYv, (Access Date: 24.08.2024).
[v] “Rusya: NATO Ukrayna ve Gürcistan’a Verdiği Üyelik Taahhüdünü Geri Çekmeli”, Euro News, https://tr.euronews.com/2021/12/10/rusya-nato-ukrayna-ve-gurcistan-a-verdigi-uyelik-taahhudunu-geri-cekmeli, (Access Date: 24.08.2024).
