India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi visit to Ukraine on August 23, 2024, comes at a critical time amidst the rising tension. The first visit ever since Ukraine’s independence in 1991 by an Indian PM, it’s already a significant step in diplomatic relations with the country.
India, with its history of Non Alignment, has historically maintained a very strong defence and economic ties, dating back to the Cold War era. The two countries have cooperated in various sectors, but especially in military exchange as India is highly dependent on Russia for Military equipment.
The visit is seen as an opportunity for India to strengthen its bilateral ties with Ukraine, which have been relatively limited since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 because of its relation with Russia. During Modi’s meeting with President Zelensky, the two leaders discussed ways to expand cooperation in areas like agriculture, healthcare, culture, and humanitarian aid etc.[1]
His visit was also interpreted by many as a proof of New Delhi’s diplomatic act of balancing, which aims to highlight India’s position as a rising geopolitical power while countering criticism of its tight defence and economic links to Moscow.
Russia is hopeful that India will play a crucial role in this war, speaking at a panel discussion at Russia’s Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin was asked which countries could potentially handle peace negotiations with Ukraine. “First of all, Chinese People’s Republic, Brazil, India. I am in contact with my partners, we have trust and confidence in one another,” Putin said. He later added: “If there is a desire of Ukraine to carry on with the negotiations, I can do that.”[2]
From Ukraine’s perspective, this diplomatic stance comes at a critical time and is very advantageous for Ukraine’s national and international interests, given India’s strong relationship with Russia. India’s stance aligns with its desire to strengthen ties with the West, the United States and the European Union, who have supported Ukraine during the conflict.
This visit to Ukraine in August along with Modi’s visit to Russia in July 2024, signifies that India is willing to engage with both sides of the conflict, maintaining its long standing principle of Non-alignment while seeking to act as a mediator in this war.
India’s role in major global forums such as BRICS and G20, makes it a critical player in international diplomacy. A visit to Ukraine would likely have broader ramifications for India’s diplomatic standing, especially within the context of its leadership in promoting peace and stability and principle of Non-alignment. However, the reaction from Russia still would need careful consideration, for any future predicament.
During his visit to Kyiv, Modi emphasised India’s commitment to peace and dialogue, asserting that India has never been neutral in the conflict. He discussed potential cooperation in Ukraine’s reconstruction and signed four agreements covering agriculture and medical product regulation, which aim to restore bilateral trade to pre-conflict levels.[3] This signals a strategic shift in India’s foreign policy, focusing more on Central and Eastern Europe while maintaining its ties with Russia.[4]
The visit to Ukraine raises questions about India’s long-standing strong relationship with Russia, but it is important to consider India’s pragmatic approach to securing its own economic and energy interests. India is Russia’s one of the key energy importer, India also increased its imports of Russian oil at discounted rates following the sanction on Russia by the Western countries.
Within the broader context, India is safeguarding its energy security while not alienating Russia, its key energy partner. However, it is also a calculated risk, as India wants to maintain its relation with Russia for defence purposes, while balancing to build stronger economic ties with the Western countries. This move might also reflect India’s attempt to change its strategic partnerships and reduce over-dependence on Russian military equipment, oil and energy etc.
Although it is difficult to predict if New Delhi will be willing to play a crucial role in peace-making or mediation beyond the facilitator role, it’s quite clear, that India is trying to balance its neutral stance as to safeguard its International and national interest and securities. Increasing shifts towards the multipolar world indicates the change in global politics, the war has played a great role in changing the dynamics of polarity in the international arena, future implications remain to be seen and hard to predict in this multipolar world.
[1] “PM Modi attempts a tricky balance in Kyiv, as U.S. and Russia watch closely”, The Hindu, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/pm-modi-attempts-a-tricky-balance-in-kyiv-as-us-and-russia-watch-closely/article68554189.ece, (Date of Access: 07.09.2024); “Indian PM Modi visits Ukraine to open new foreign policy horizons”, Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/indian-pm-modi-visits-ukraine-to-open-new-foreign-policy-horizons/, (Date of Access: 07.09.2024).
[2] “Putin says China, Brazil or India could act as intermediaries in Ukraine peace talks”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-eastern-economic-forum-china-brazil-india-intermediaries-peace-talks-ukraine/, (Date of Access: 07.09.2024).
[3] “PM Modi attempts a tricky balance in Kyiv, as U.S. and Russia watch closely”, The Hindu, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/pm-modi-attempts-a-tricky-balance-in-kyiv-as-us-and-russia-watch-closely/article68554189.ece, (Date of Access: 07.09.2024); “India’s PM Visit to Ukraine”, Drishtiias, https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/india-s-pm-visit-to-ukraine, (Date of Access: 07.09.2024).
[4] “India’s PM Visit to Ukraine”, Drishtiias, https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/india-s-pm-visit-to-ukraine, (Date of Access: 07.09.2024).
