The regional elections held in the German state of Thuringia in September 2024 marked a significant change in the country’s political scene. The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 32.8% of the vote. Since World War II, it has become the first far-right party to lead in a German state. This success of the AfD, which performed strongly in Thuringia and neighboring Saxony, reveals the deepening separation between the eastern and western regions of the country. Analysts convey that these election results are because East Germans feel that their compatriots have neglected them in the West and by the central government in Berlin.[i]
While the rise of the AfD is a reflection of the anti-establishment movements gaining momentum across Europe, its success in East Germany can be considered closely linked to the historical and socio-economic challenges specific to the region. after the reunification of Germany, which took place after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, east Germans felt that they were being left behind in terms of economic growth and political influence. Despite the investments made in infrastructure and technological sectors, it has been seen that the East is still lagging behind the West. The AfD has tried to cover up these frustrations with a discourse based on economic justice and traditional values, and in this sense has managed to use the space left by the center parties by filling the political void.
One of the main factors behind the success of the AfD is the sense of economic and social exclusion felt by East Germans. Although the financial differences between East and West Germany have narrowed in recent years, there is still a significant gap. The lack of young and qualified workers who migrated from East to West after reunification and the low birth rates in the 1990s created a big gap in the Eastern labor force. Although foreign workers partially fill this gap, many East Germans consider it a threat to their identity.[ii]
The AfD has positioned itself as a party that defends these traditional values and appeals to voters who feel overwhelmed by the policies of climate change, migration, and social integration implemented in the West. Many people in the East find these policies elitist and incompatible with everyday concerns. The party’s anti-immigrant stance finds wide support in regions dominated by economic concerns and fear of cultural erosion.
Another dimension of the east-west divide in Germany is the difference in attitude towards Russia. In East Germany, which has spent decades under Soviet rule, many people have a more moderate view of Russia than the pro-NATO views in the West. This difference is also manifested in the AfD’s stance towards the Russia-Ukraine War. The party calls for the end of military support to Ukraine and the lifting sanctions against Moscow.[iii] This contrasts with the harsher attitude of the Western World towards Russia and further deepens the cultural and political divisions within Germany.
The AfD’s success in Thuringia and Saxony can be seen as one of the strongest reflections in Germany of a growing right-wing populist movement across Europe. The rise of the AfD, when considered in a broader context, is not only due to Germany’s internal dynamics but is also seen as part of the anti-immigrant, nationalist, and anti-globalization wave in Europe. Examples such as Brexit, the victory of Giorgia Meloni in Italy, and the popularity of Marine Le Pen in France show how right-wing populism is gaining momentum in Europe. In this international context, the AfD makes strong use of concerns that globalization is undermining the local workforce and that traditional cultural values are under threat.
In this context, the success of the AfD in Thuringia and Saxony marks a period when the federal structure of Germany is also being tested. Since states in Germany have their local governments, a far-right party gaining power in a state such as Thuringia could weaken the federal government’s policies and threaten Germany’s overall political stability. Even if the AfD is unable to secure the necessary coalition to form a government in Thuringia, this victory sends a serious message to the central government in Berlin. This may also be a “flare” for elections to be held at the federal level in the coming years.
Especially as we approach the 2025 federal elections, it will be critical how the center parties develop a strategy to counter the AfD’s rhetoric.[iv] Given that the AfD’s policies have melted the voting base of the traditional center parties and narrowed the political maneuvering space, there is an increasing possibility that the political map of Germany may undergo a radical change in the coming years. The issues of migration, economy, and cultural identity will be decisive for how the center parties manage this division. The Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) may have to revise their policies to balance the influence of the far right.[v] The successes of the AfD may lead these parties to harden their stances on migration policies further, combating economic inequalities, and national security issues.
As a result, the rise of the AfD in Thuringia and Saxony symbolizes a deep rejection of the current political order in East Germany. The party has become a powerful political presence in the East by skillfully exploiting historical resentments, economic inequalities, and cultural concerns. It can be assumed that many voters who feel ignored by Berlin and the West decry the AFD as a savior. As Germany struggles with these internal divisions, the rise of far-right populism in the East raises important questions about the future of national unity and the country’s role in Europe.
The achievements of the AfD serve as an example not only for Germany but also for the rising far-right movements across Europe. These developments are of a nature that can have a serious impact on the future of democracy and unity projects in Europe, and the decisions to be taken on this issue can affect the fate not only of Germany but also of the whole of Europe. The AfD’s victory is not just a local result, but a stark reminder of the deep rifts in Germany’s post-unification society.
[i] Virginia Pietromarchi, “Stark rejection’: How Germany’s far-right AfD won key election in the east”, Aljazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/9/3/stark-rejection-how-germanys-far-right-afd-won-key-election-in-the-east, (Accessed: 04.09.2024).
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] “Liv Stroud, ‘Germany grapples with far-right surge as AfD wins state election”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/09/03/germany-grapples-with-far-right-surge-as-afd-wins-state-election, (Accessed: 04.09.2024).
[iv] Nadine Schmidt, Claudia Otto and Matthies Otto, “Germany’s far-right party AfD set to win one state election, and is level in another, exit polls show”, CNN World, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/01/europe/far-right-germany-regional-election-win-intl-latam/index.html, (Accessed: 04.09.2024).
[v] Ibid.
