A representative of the Chinese Ministry of Defense stated on 16 March 2024 that Beijing was “ready to intervene” if the United States (US) or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) decided to attack Russia.[1]
In early March 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron raised the possibility of NATO sending troops to Ukraine. While this issue continued to be discussed in Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West once again, stating that Moscow was militarily and technically ready for nuclear war.
Since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War, NATO members’ involvement has so far been limited to providing ammunition and military equipment to Ukraine, rather than sending troops. In January, however, NATO launched Steadfast Defender 2024, the largest military exercise since the Cold War, to show Russia that the alliance is ready to defend its territory. These large-scale exercises brought together 90,000 troops from 32 countries.
On 13 March 2024, the eighth security policy dialogue between China and NATO took place in Beijing, as tensions between Europe and Russia continue to escalate. “The two sides exchanged views on defense exchanges between China and NATO, international and regional situations and other issues of common concern,” the Chinese Army said in a statement.[2] NATO, for its part, said that the Russian-Ukrainian war was particularly discussed during these talks.
After China’s declaration of support for Russia, Putin warned that a possible conflict with NATO would lead to World War III.[3] In this context, China’s cooperation with Russia is on the agenda to move to military dimensions (support in war). If the West’s war with Russia deepens, the involvement of China and North Korea has become almost inevitable. This is because China has long been uncomfortable with NATO’s expansion into the Asia-Pacific and has been vocal about it. China has even promised a ‘decisive response’ to any NATO expansion in Asia.[4] In this sense, China and Russia are determined to form a united front against NATO expansion.
It can be said that the UK and the US are waging a proxy war against Russia over Ukraine. While continental Europe is reluctant to continue this war, the UK and the US are in favor of its continuation. Therefore, it can be said that Russia and China are positioned against the UK and the US in the power competition between the great powers. The power rivalry between these powers lies behind the war being staged in Europe today. In this context, it is still possible to analyze world politics through realist theory, zero-sum game and polarization politics.
By attacking Ukraine, Russia actually wanted to weaken and defeat the West. China, on the other hand, is worried that the effects of this war will reach the Asia-Pacific militarily. As Russia’s conflict with NATO grows, China suffers as well. By provoking the West, Moscow is actually putting Beijing in a difficult position. Since China refrains from criticizing Russia for the war in Ukraine and does not agree with the sanctions imposed on Moscow, the West is starting to target Beijing as well. In short, as Russia deepens its war with the West, Western pressure on China increases. Therefore, while China is trying to restrain the West, it is also calling on Russia to end this war. The Western axis, led by the UK and the US, on the other hand, continues to strive with all its might to make Russia the loser in the war in Ukraine. In this process, the extent of cooperation between the UK, the US and Continental Europe or between Russia and China has constantly changed.
The above-mentioned actors have started to polarize each other in a zero-sum game. The Western World, led by the UK and the US, is no longer at the center of the international system. Russia and China, as rising powers in the world system, are challenging the old established powers, the West. In the face of this situation, the UK and the US are trying to make Russia and China lose in a zero-sum game. The theater of the rivalry between the UK and Russia is Ukraine. The main stage for the struggle between the US and China is the escalating new crises in Asia. If the war in Europe comes to an end, Britain may want to move its struggle with Russia to other parts of the world. This is also the expectation of the United States. Washington wants Europe to turn its attention to Beijing. In the current conjuncture, Russia is likely to create new crises in Moldova, Georgia or the Baltics after Ukraine. In other words, Russia will continue to deepen its war against the West.
China, on the other hand, sees Russia as a similar partner moving towards building an alternative world order to the so-called Western-led international order. On the surface, Russia’s victory over NATO seems to favor China. But the realist paradigm says otherwise. As Moscow’s quarrel with the West grows, China finds itself in a polarized situation. The West is still concerned about Beijing’s continued partnership with Moscow. China is trying to strike a delicate balance between the West and Russia. But this balance policy is still in its infancy. Therefore, it will be difficult to predict the trend in China’s foreign policy. Both the dialog with the West and the strategic partnership with Russia may have costs for China.
[1] “China ‘ready to intervene’ if America, NATO attack Russia: Report”, Newsbyteapp, https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/world/china-reportedly-ready-to-intervene-if-us-nato-attack-russia/story, (Accessed: 18.03.2024).
[2] “China and NATO Officials Meet Amid Warnings of Russia Alignment”, Newsweek, https://www.newsweek.com/china-nato-ukraine-russia-war-dialogue-1879500, (Accessed: 18.03.2024).
[3] “Putin warns the West a Russia-NATO conflict is just one step from WW3”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/putin-warns-the-west-a-russia-nato-conflict-is-just-one-step-from-ww3/, (Accessed: 18.03.2024).
[4] “China promises ‘resolute response’ to any NATO expansion in Asia”, Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/12/china-promises-robust-response-to-any-nato-expansion-in-asia, (Accessed: 18.03.2024).
