As Ukraine continued to launch drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his nuclear threat. Putin warned that his country is ready to use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty or independence is threatened.[i] Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the Russian leader has repeatedly tried to intimidate the West by talking about his readiness to use nuclear weapons. In his latest statement, Putin said, “If the existence of the Russian state or our sovereignty and independence is threatened, we are ready to use any weapons, including the ones you mentioned.”[ii]
After Putin said he was “ready” for conflict, China warned Russia that nuclear war “cannot be won” and should “never” be fought.[iii] Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin made the following statement:
“China believes that all nuclear-armed states should embrace the idea of common security and promote global strategic balance and stability. Under the current circumstances, the parties should take concrete steps and jointly seek to de-escalate tensions.”
China is worried about a nuclear war all over the world and the devastation that would result. This includes nuclear threats from Russia. Stating that there will be no winner in a nuclear war, China also opposes the threat of using nuclear power. This is because China is uncomfortable with nuclear threats from both Russia and North Korea and seeks to reduce the risk of such a war that could devastate it. North Korea, for example, has long been testing intercontinental ballistic missiles as a response to US nuclear threats. China has warned Russia to renounce its nuclear threats and similarly urges North Korea to contribute to world peace.[iv]
Some Western analysts argue that Russia could pose a threat to China on its eastern border, that there have been Russian-Chinese border clashes in history, and that China is always on guard against Russia. For example, American military expert Dr. John Callahan told the Express that Russia “would not stand a chance against China without the use of nuclear weapons.”[v]
The Western media, in particular, often talk about the possibility of a conflict or disagreement between Russia and China. The British media, in particular, wants to create a perception of a conflict between the two powers and pit them against each other. China has previously confronted Russia over border disputes. Britain wants to reignite “these frozen crises” between the two countries. The aim here is to replicate the Sino-Indian border disputes between Russia and China. In other words, to drive a wedge between Russia and China. The most convenient tool here is the nuclear threat from Russia.
Continental Europe has started to use the “nuclear threat” argument to separate China from Russia. For instance, during his visit to Beijing, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Cinping could use his influence over Russia to end the war in Ukraine. He also stated that they agree that Russia’s nuclear threats are “extremely dangerous”. The Chinese authorities also reaffirmed their opposition to the use and threat of nuclear weapons in Eurasia. After these remarks, the Western powers realized that China’s “soft underbelly” was the war in Ukraine, and rather the nuclear issue, and once again started to go after it over this issue.
According to the West, the way to win China to their side is to hit it in its “soft underbelly”. Accordingly, Western powers have constantly warned China about the “Russian threat” and pressured China to take a front against it. After Scholz, both US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron asked Cinping for support in preventing nuclear threats during the G20 Summit.[vi] Beijing has begun to show that it is uncomfortable with the prolongation of this war and especially with Moscow’s nuclear threats. China’s intention is to restrain Russia and prevent a nuclear holocaust in the world. In addition, Beijing continues to be a strategic partner with Moscow.
When there is a risk of a bigger war between Russia and the West, China tries to minimize this risk. This is because it has clearly seen that this war will at some point harm its own interests. China has the power to dissuade Russia from using nuclear force. If there is one actor that can convince Moscow, it is China. Because China says it is against the Cold War mentality. The Cold War is what Russia is currently doing with the West. China wants to break this.
The West’s anger is directed at China as well as Russia. Beijing is beginning to see that its ties with Moscow are damaging its relations with the world. That is why China invites Western states to Beijing and conveys to them in the first person that it “favors world peace” and “does not support Russia’s war”. China wants to make itself clear to the West without offending Russia and reduce the risk of war. The nuclear issue will remain a sensitive issue that could put China at odds with Russia.
[i] “Putin reiterates nuclear threat as Ukraine launches drone strikes on Russian oil refineries”, France 24, https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240313-ukraine-launches-mass-drone-attack-on-russia-putin-says-moscow-ready-to-use-nuclear-arms, (Date of Access: 31.08.2024).
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] “Ukraine-Russia War Live: Russians Begin Voting İn Sham Election As China Responds To Putin’s Nuclear Warning”, Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-troops-putin-elections-today-b2513095.html, (Date of Access: 31.08.2024).
[iv] “Xi Tells Kim China Willing to Work with N. Korea for ‘World Peace’: KCNA”, Strait Times, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinas-xi-in-message-to-n-koreas-kim-says-willing-to-work-together-for-regional-global-stability-kcna, (Date of Access: 31.08.2024).
[v] “Russia Vs China: Putin ‘Would Not Stand Chance’ Against Xi in Potential Military Standoff”, Express, https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1657052/putin-news-russia-china-putin-xi-nuclear-weapons-russia-latest-news-spt, (Date of Access: 31.08.2024).
[vi] “Macron Welcomes China’s Ability to Put Pressure on Russia”, Irısh Times, https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2022/11/18/macron-welcomes-chinas-ability-to-put-pressure-on-russia/, (Date of Access: 31.08.2024).
