On 29 August 2024, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visited Beijing and assured that the Democrats led by Kamala Harris would “responsibly manage” relations with China if they won the elections.[i] Sullivan, who met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, said in his message that the Democrats wanted to avoid “conflict or confrontation” with China.[ii] To achieve this, the Biden administration values maintaining high-level and open channels of communication with Beijing. Because mutual exchanges of views are vital in the settlement of a possible tension.
From China’s perspective, the uncertain and volatile policies of the Trump era, especially after 2017, have constantly prevented bilateral relations from settling on a healthy and stable ground. Therefore, after the elections in the US, China is still worried about whether the new American administration will be able to put these relations back on track. As the China policies of Republicans and Democrats have started to “converge”. In this regard, the similar attitudes of American decision-makers and public opinion toward global policies have been effective.
Little is also known about Democratic candidate Harris’s view of China. In her speech at the Democratic Convention, Harris promised to ensure that “America, not China, wins the competition in the 21st century”. This can be interpreted as a sign that Harris will follow the path of her predecessor Biden in line with American national interests and deepen the competition with China.
On the other hand, China’s messages in its relations with the US focus on stability, dialogue and building world peace. According to Xinhua, Xi told Sullivan during the talks that Beijing and Washington should be a “stable source of world peace” and reiterated that his country has always aimed for a stable, healthy, and sustainable China-US relationship.[iii]
It is questionable how sincere Sullivan is in his statement of “managing relations responsibly.” Since, it was the Biden administration itself that tried a provocation over ‘Taiwan’ on 2 August 2022 and caused the breakdown of defense ties with China. Therefore, there is no guarantee that the US will “responsibly manage” relations with China under the Harris administration. At this point, it can be understood that the Biden administration wants to promise Beijing “a more rational and stable relationship than the Trump administration.”
After 2017 under Trump’s presidency, there were major fluctuations and even ruptures in US-China relations. The most important of these was Trump’s initiation of trade wars against China. Furthermore, the US Secretary of State at the time, Mike Pompeo, made radical outbursts on many issues related to China’s internal affairs, and it became almost impossible to establish a healthy dialogue in relations. These accusations spread to a number of areas such as the Xinjiang-Uygur Autonomous Region, Taiwan, Hong Kong and the Covid-19 pandemic. There was no major change in relations with China after Trump, and the Democrat Biden administration continued its rivalry with Beijing.
Trade wars have become permanent in post-Trump US-China relations and are seen as indispensable for American national-global interests. In order to prevent China from overtaking the US economically and becoming the world’s new superpower, a common mission of Republicans and Democrats has emerged: To stop China’s rapid rise.
As in the Trump era, the Democratic Biden administration faces a number of difficulties in “responsibly managing” the competition with China. These arise from differences of interest between American public opinion, the Senate, the White House, the Pentagon, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and other institutions.
The main focus in relations with China has changed under Republican or Democratic administrations. Under the Trump presidency, the US focused on issues such as China’s Xinjiang-Uygur Autonomous Region and Hong Kong and Covid-19, while under the Biden presidency, an intensive policy was pursued on Taiwan and other Asia-Pacific issues. Escalation of the crises surrounding China has been the main policy pursued by the US in the last 10-15 years. The next phase of this will be the relocation of Western collective defence organisations to the Asia-Pacific and the creation of a US protection shield in the region.
Republican Trump’s “America First” strategy could weaken security alliances in the Asia-Pacific. Leaving aside the recent military partnerships with Japan and South Korea, Taiwan may not receive sufficient military support and a full guarantee of protection from the US under the Republican administration. Conversely, it has been observed that the US seems to be more determined to help Taiwan during the Biden era. Hence, the Democrats tend to portray the ‘possible Trump administration’ as a threat to their allies in the Asia-Pacific. Likewise, in its dialogue with China, the Biden administration draws attention to Trump’s irrational policies.
However, it can be said that Trump is also preferable when China’s interests are at stake. This is because Trump may question the costs of military partnerships, especially with Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, and may seek to recoup them and, if necessary, weaken ties with these actors.
To conclude, it can be said that the Democratic or Republican governments will have their own challenges in terms of China’s ability to put relations with the United States back on track. Although Sullivan talked about “managing relations responsibly” during his meetings in Beijing, these words may not have any meaning in China. It can be said that the Democrats will try to manage relations with China by drawing attention to ‘Trump’s unpredictability’ at least during the election campaign. In this process, the Biden administration will not want a new crisis in foreign policy.
[i] “US assures China that Kamala Harris would ‘responsibly manage’ ties”, Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/be95e0fa-f9ca-4c42-9dc3-dc57e5a57c56, (Access Date: 30.08.2024).
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] Ibid.
