On 12 June 2024, Western leaders agreed to Ukraine’s attack on Russia with Western weapons. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered exercises in the Southern Military District. The Russian Ministry of Defence announced that the personnel of the missile unit of the Leningrad Military District had successfully carried out combat training tasks.[1]
Russia has stated that soldiers and sailors have been designated for the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons during exercises on the borders of NATO members: Norway, Finland, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. This step gives the impression that Russia is expanding the geographical scope of nuclear exercises in military zones covering a large part of the European border.
For the 9K270 Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system which is a Russian-made short-range ballistic missile system, tasks such as procuring special training ammunition, equipping launch vehicles and sneaking to the designated deployment area for missile launch preparations are carried out by the personnel of naval ships. During these trainings, sea-based cruise missiles are provided with special dummy warheads and sent to designated patrol areas.
On 11 June 2024, Russia also announced that it had begun the second phase of exercises to ensure the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons alongside Belarusian troops. A video released by the Russian Ministry of Defence showed a mobile missile system being escorted to a site and a rocket being loaded onto a warship. Putin has expressed that it is not necessary to use nuclear weapons to achieve victory in Ukraine. This is a convincing signal from the Kremlin that the European conflict will not escalate into a nuclear war.[2]
Moreover, it is unclear how Russia will respond to calls to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. However, it remains uncertain as to how Putin will proceed in this regard. There is also the possibility of a change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Although the US states that it has not observed any change in Russia’s strategic stance, senior intelligence officials emphasize that Russia’s statements on nuclear weapons should be taken seriously.
The United States and Russia are recognized as the world’s major nuclear powers. Tactical nuclear weapons are less powerful than strategic nuclear weapons and are designed to be used on the battlefield. The United States has many nuclear weapons in Europe and within its borders. Russia is also known to have non-strategic nuclear warheads. Putin has declared the power of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons. On the other hand, the US has stated that it can use strategic nuclear weapons against increasing threats.
Tactical nuclear weapons are smaller-powered weapons that are used against troops on the battlefield rather than for the destruction of cities. These weapons can be aerial bombs, warheads for short-range missiles or artillery munitions. However, these weapons are not restricted by international agreements like strategic weapons.[3]
On 7 June 2024, Putin stated in a statement that it is unnecessary to use nuclear weapons to achieve victory in Ukraine and that nuclear weapons can only be used in the event of a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. He pointed out that Russia considers the territories captured from Ukraine as an integral part of its own territory, which increases the chance of a nuclear attack if Kiev tries to retake these territories. Putin added that there is currently no need to test nuclear weapons, but that they could do so if necessary. Furthermore, Russia and the USA possess approximately 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons.[4]
Putin’s attitude towards Ukraine and his statements on the use of nuclear weapons are also noteworthy. Putin noted that Russia is advancing in Ukraine and increasing its weapon production. He also mentioned the possibility of making changes in Russia’s nuclear doctrine and nuclear weapon tests. US President Joe Biden reiterated his pledge of support for Ukraine and stated that the US and its European allies could deploy conventional missiles if Russia attacked Ukraine.
Russia makes a number of perilous statements regarding nuclear weapons. In this context, there is a possibility of a change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Both Russia and the United States are the world’s largest nuclear powers and most of Russia’s nuclear weapons are kept confidential. It is also stated that the explosive power of tactical nuclear weapons is five times that of the US nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
[1] “Russia broadens tactical nuclear weapons drills”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-its-non-strategic-nuclear-drills-involve-iskander-missiles-2024-06-12/, (Date of Access: 12.06.2024).
[2] “Russia begins second stage of tactical nuclear weapon drills with Belarus”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-belarus-start-second-stage-tactical-nuclear-drills-ministry-says-2024-06-11/, (Date of Access: 12.06.2024).
[3] Aynı yer.
[4] “Putin says Russia does not need to use nuclear weapons for victory in Ukraine”, Reuters, https://t.ly/074rb, (Date of Access: 12.06.2024).
