The issue of postponing the presidential elections in Ukraine, which under normal circumstances should be held in 2024, has been a topic of discussion since the last months of 2023. These debates were reignited with the expiration of the term of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky on May 20, 2024. Zelensky and his supporters argue that postponing elections under martial law is in accordance with the Ukrainian Constitution, while the opposition argues that he is not the legitimate President of Ukraine as of 20 May 2024.
In an interview with Reuters, Zelenski said that he had to continue as head of state due to martial law. Had martial law not been imposed, the next presidential election would have been held on March 31, 2024 and Zelenski’s term would have ended on May 20, 2024. However, Ukraine declared martial law following the Russian aggression on February 24, 2022. In March 2024, Zelensky said in an interview with the Italian media outlet Rai 1 that the presidential elections had to be postponed because holding elections under martial law would require changes to Ukrainian law. The Ukrainian leader also emphasized that the government should provide the necessary conditions for 7 million Ukrainians to vote abroad and for soldiers serving on the front line. In early May 2024, Zelensky signed a law extending martial law and general mobilization from May 14 to August 11.[1]
The Washington Post noted that as Zelensky’s five-year term officially ends on May 20, there will be even more serious challenges to the legitimacy of the President and his chief advisor. The article in question, published in The Washington Post, made the following assessment:[2]
“The Ukrainian Constitution prohibits holding elections under martial law. But as long as he remains in office, Zelenski will be vulnerable to accusations that he is using the war to undermine democracy by seizing control of the media, sidelining critics and rivals, and favoring his unelected friend Yermak over career civil servants and diplomats. Some of these allegations are also undeniable”
On the second day of his visit to China, Russian President Vladimir Putin questioned Zelensky’s “political legitimacy” when responding to a journalists’ question about the current lack of plans to hold a presidential election in Ukraine. Putin said that this was a matter for Ukraine’s constitutional court and political system to decide. However, he said that this question is important for Russia because if it signs a war agreement with Ukraine in the future, “it wants to be sure that it is signing with the right person”.[3]
The chain of events that followed the statement that “there will be no elections in Ukraine” led to a political escalation that extended to the dismissal by Zelensky of the Chief of the General Staff Valeri Zalujni, who had become a popular figure in Ukraine, especially in wartime. This controversy in Ukraine is also becoming a trump card for the Russian administration. The report shared by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claims that Zelensky’s popularity in the Ukrainian Armed Forces does not exceed 20%, while more than 70% of the country’s people do not trust the Ukrainian media and nearly 90% of them want to leave the country. It is estimated that Zelenski has lost a great deal of credibility in the army, especially with the dismissal of Zalujni. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service reported that the West is extremely concerned about the decline in the ratings of Ukrainian leaders, especially after the adoption of the mobilization law.[4]
Doubts about Zelensky’s staying in office beyond May 20, 2024 stem from the vagueness of Ukrainian law. While the Constitution does not explicitly prohibit presidential elections under martial law, it states that the president must remain in office until his successor is elected (Article 108) and that the presidential term is five years (Article 103).[5] Ukrainian jurists argue that the absence of a mechanism for the extension of the president’s mandate is a loophole created to reduce the risk of abuse of power.
Zelenski’s opponents, on the other hand, argue that it is constitutional for the speaker of parliament to serve as acting head of state until the next election. There has been a similar situation in recent Ukrainian history: During the 2014 Maydan Events, when then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych fled the country, then Speaker of the Parliament Aleksandr Turchinov assumed executive power as Acting President. Turchinov then handed over power to Petro Poroshenko, the winner of the next presidential elections.
As a result, in addition to the growing despair in the Ukrainian public opinion against Russia, which has started to increase its attacks on the Ukrainian front, the political legitimacy of the Ukrainian leader Zelensky has also been questioned by his opponents. In Ukraine, which is facing ammunition and manpower shortages, Zelenski’s martial law policies are also causing despair among the Ukrainian people. The situation in Ukraine, which was able to maintain the moral high ground from the beginning of the war until mid-2023, is deteriorating from the point of view of Western public opinion. In addition to the “Ukraine apathy” in some Western circles and the concrete difficulties on the frontline, the questioning of Zelensky’s legitimacy has added a new layer to the problem in the context of the Russia-Ukraine War.
[1]Hodunova, K., “Zelensky on legitimacy dispute: My term is not over yet”, Kyiv Independent, https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-on-his-5-year-presidential-term-that-is-not-it-yet/, (Date of Access: 22.05.2024).
[2]“Zelenskiy’in görev süresi sona erdi: Şimdi ne olacak?”, Sputnik, https://anlatilaninotesi.com.tr/20240520/zelenskiyin-gorev-suresi-sona-erdi-simdi-ne-olacak-1083996981.html, (Date of Access: 22.05.2024).
[3]Öztürk, T., “Ukrayna’da sıkıyönetim: Putin, Zelenski’nin “siyasi meşruiyetini” sorguluyor”, NTV, https://www.ntv.com.tr/dunya/ukraynada-sikiyonetim-putin-zelenskinin-siyasi-mesruiyetini-sorguluyor,3h_DH9HksE2880BE6ftmWw, (Date of Access: 22.05.2024).
[4]“Zelenskiy’in görev süresi sona erdi: Şimdi ne olacak?”, Sputnik, https://anlatilaninotesi.com.tr/20240520/zelenskiyin-gorev-suresi-sona-erdi-simdi-ne-olacak-1083996981.html, (Date of Access: 22.05.2024).
[5]Skorkin, K., “Is Zelensky’s Legitimacy Really At Risk?”, Carnegie, https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/03/is-zelenskys-legitimacy-really-at-risk?lang=en, (Date of Access: 22.05.2024).
