Poland has historically occupied a central position in European great power politics. The presence of powerful and assertive neighbors such as Russia and Germany has significantly shaped the course of Polish history and its socio-political landscape. From a geopolitical perspective, Russia and Germany have often held divergent views. They have consistently agreed on Poland’s strategic importance in Europe. Both nations considered influence over Poland a natural right, making the country a potential battleground.
Throughout the 19th century, Poland’s geopolitical dilemmas were starkly evident. The early 20th century saw the emergence of the Polish geopolitical school. Eugeniusz Romer, considered the Polish geopolitical school’s pioneer, emphasizes the necessity of Poland’s continuous initiative and strategic playmaking for its survival. This proactive stance would enable Poland to adopt a more assertive foreign policy. Nonetheless, it can be argued that during this period, Poland perceived Germany as a greater threat.
In 1908, Roman Dmowski, a prominent figure in the Polish geopolitical school, authored “Germany, Russia and the Polish Question” (Niemcy, Rosja i kwestia polska), which underscored the notion that Germany was Poland’s “historical enemy”. Other geopolitical perspectives highlighted the negative role Russia played in Polish history. Thus, Poland’s historical contradictions, dilemmas, reservations, and fears were firmly embedded in the Polish geopolitical school.
Today, due to its geographical location, Poland continues to act as a barometer of great power politics. The Russia-Ukraine War has reignited the debate over Poland’s role in Central and Eastern Europe. Analyzing Poland’s post-Cold War policies reveals a trend of closer cooperation with actors like the United States and the United Kingdom to safeguard itself from its two powerful neighbors.
Poland’s increasing alignment with US-UK-oriented geopolitical strategies is rooted in the aforementioned historical reservations and dilemmas. The support from the United States and the United Kingdom has facilitated the limited adoption of the game-making characteristics advocated by Eugeniusz Romer in Polish geopolitics. However, for Poland to fully realize Romer’s envisioned geopolitical capabilities, it must become an independent and essentially self-sufficient geopolitical player. The assistance from the US and the UK has provided limited opportunities for Poland to “simultaneously protect itself” from Russia and Germany.
In the 2015 parliamentary elections, the nationalist-conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) came to power, advocating for compensation for the economic, social, and humanitarian damages inflicted on Poland by Germany during World War II. This stance included a demand for substantial reparations. Following the Russia-Ukraine War, these demands grew more vocal, with Poland estimating the damages at $1.40 trillion. However, Germany has repeatedly asserted that financial claims related to the war were settled long ago.[1] In the 2023 elections, the liberal-leaning Donald Tusk was elected Prime Minister. Unlike his predecessor Mateusz Morawiecki and his government, Tusk has not insisted on war reparations.
At the onset of the Russia-Ukraine War, Poland’s active involvement raised many geopolitical questions. The geography of Ukraine is crucial to Poland’s historically and geopolitically driven strategy of becoming an independent player. Specifically, western Ukraine holds significant importance for Polish geopolitics both historically and existentially. The war also became a tool for Poland’s aspirations for regional leadership. This leadership was facilitated by a new geopolitical alignment, supported by the US and the UK, in which Poland actively participated in Eastern Europe and the Baltic region. Consequently, Warsaw views the consolidation of the American presence in the region, replacing that of Russia and Germany, as advantageous for its interests in the short and medium term. In the long term, Poland seeks to enhance its regional position with an independent strategic framework.
Poland’s efforts toward regional leadership in Eastern Europe and the Baltics have been cautiously observed by major regional powers as well as by countries like Hungary and Romania. The 2015 Three Seas Initiative (Baltic-Black Sea-Adriatic), essentially a US-backed geopolitical response to the Berlin-Paris-Moscow axis, aligns with Poland’s long-term strategic goal of “Rzeczpospolita,” which carries historical significance. Similarly, the 2020 Lublin Triangle Initiative, uniting Poland, Ukraine, and Lithuania, can be viewed in this context. The Lublin Triangle developed from a joint military unit formed by the three countries in 2014, which has been integral in implementing NATO standards in the Ukrainian Armed Forces since 2016.
Warsaw’s attempt to solidify its playmaker credentials with US support may yield short-term benefits. However, in the medium and long term, this approach could exacerbate regional fault lines. Meanwhile, economic interactions with Russia and Germany remain vital for Poland’s economy, highlighting the country’s economic-geopolitical dilemma.
Poland’s historical background offers a rich geopolitical and geostrategic resource. As one of Europe’s most significant historical powers, Poland prioritizes having a greater influence in continental politics. However, in pursuing this ambition, it navigates complex geopolitical fault lines that are synonymous with Europe’s history of conflict. Thus, Poland’s actions entail numerous dilemmas and challenges.
[1] “Polonya’nın rekor savaş tazminatı talebine Almanya’dan ‘konu kapandı’ cevabı”, Euronews, https://tr.euronews.com/2023/01/03/polonyanin-rekor-savas-tazminati-talebine-almanyadan-konu-kapandi-cevabi, (Access Date: 24.05.2024).
