The US House of Representatives passed a $61 billion (£49 billion) aid package for Ukraine on April 20, 2024, after months of political deadlock in parliament. This followed President Joe Biden’s pledge to provide new military aid to Ukraine ‘expeditiously’.[1] In a statement, the White House said it had “an enduring commitment to support Ukraine as it defends its freedom against Russian aggression”.[2] In addition to the US, the UK also reiterated its support for Ukraine. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak warned that Vladimir Putin “will not stop at the Polish border” if Russia wins the war, and promised the UK’s largest ever military aid package to Ukraine.[3]
In this context, the UK plans to provide Kiev with vital equipment, including 400 vehicles, more than 1,600 missiles, 4 million rounds of ammunition, 60 boots and £500 million in additional military funding. This aid is expected to total £3 billion over the course of the year. Mr. Sunak expressed the UK’s steadfast support for Ukraine:
“The armed forces of Ukraine continue to bravely fight on, but they now need our support. This package will assist Ukraine in having everything it needs to combat Russia. The United Kingdom will always stand at the forefront of European security, defending our national interests and standing by our NATO allies.”
Since February 2022, the UK has pledged nearly £12 billion of support to Ukraine, including £7.1 billion in military aid and the remainder in humanitarian and economic support. The US and UK’s decisive support for Ukraine has subsequently led Russia to repeat its nuclear threats. Moscow reiterates its nuclear threats whenever it receives a decisive response from the West. The international community is opposed to any use of nuclear weapons and has signed a series of multilateral agreements. In addition, threats to use force are prohibited under the Charter of the United Nations.
Nevertheless, Russia has been warning of nuclear war following the decisive support of the West in the war in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on April 22, 2024 that the United States and NATO countries are obsessed with the idea of inflicting a “strategic defeat” on Russia, adding that their military support for Ukraine has brought the world to the brink of a catastrophic direct confrontation between the world’s greatest nuclear powers.[4]
Lavrov, stating that Western countries are building a global missile system capable of eliminating their rivals, has issued the following warnings:[5]
“Particularly worrying is the fact that among the main sponsors of the criminal Kiev regime and the main initiators of various provocative steps is the ‘troika’ of Western nuclear states – the US, UK and France. We see serious strategic risks. This leads to an increase in the level of nuclear danger.”
These warnings come at the same time as the war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate. In fact, Moscow has gained significant momentum on the ground in recent weeks, with a series of victories in the east of the country. The poor morale of the Ukrainian army, Russia’s continued bombardment, the failure to deliver urgently needed air defense systems and the casualties on the battlefield make it clear that the situation is not promising for Kiev and the West.
Indeed, Russia’s aerial bombardment of Ukraine continues to inflict massive damage. Russia’s doubling of its attacks on Ukraine’s critical industries and infrastructure appears to be a strategy to completely destroy the country’s defense capacity. The emerging picture is that Ukraine is heading towards losing the war. While President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Ukraine is trying to find a way to hold its ground, military officials acknowledge that further losses this summer are inevitable. Without a major shift in the supply of advanced Western weapons and cash, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to liberate the territories currently held by Russian forces. This means that the West must take real responsibility for winning the war in Ukraine.
All these factors suggest that 2024 will be a turning point in the Russia-Ukraine War. While the West’s steadfast support for Ukraine continues, Russia continues to use its biggest trump card: nuclear threats. In 2024, the war is likely to become even more deadlocked. Therefore, it is clear that a new strategy is needed on the ground. Russia is threatening to use nuclear weapons for a final victory. This tension could ultimately bring NATO and Russia face to face.
[1] “Biden vows to ‘quickly’ supply new military aid to Ukraine”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68874906, (Access Date: 22.04.2024).
[2] Ibıd.
[3] “Rishi Sunak promises UK’s largest ever military support package for Ukraine”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/22/rishi-sunak-promises-uks-largest-ever-military-support-package-for-ukraine, (Access Date: 22.04.2024).
[4] “Russia issues chilling warning over ‘direct military clash’ between nuclear Powers”, Express, https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1891201/russia-warning-nuclear-weapons-clash, (Access Date: 22.04.2024)
[5] Ibıd.
