Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced during an interview with France 24 on February 22, 2024, that his country has suspended its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) led by Russia.[1] Pashinyan stated that this decision came after Moscow began openly calling for the overthrow of the Armenian government several months ago, and the onslaught of counter-propaganda against him has not ceased.
The Pashinyan Government has long criticized the CSTO for its failure to respond to Armenia’s “security challenges.” Armenian officials have accused the Russian peacekeepers deployed to Karabakh in 2020 of failing to stop the Lightning Operation launched by Azerbaijan in September 2023, which resulted in Baku reclaiming control of the separatist region that had been under the control of ethnic Armenians for thirty years.[2]
Moscow has argued that its soldiers do not have the authority to intervene, and has accused Pashinyan of previously accepting Azerbaijan’s sovereignty, thereby laying the groundwork for the collapse of the separatist administration in the region, rejecting the allegations. Nevertheless, Pashinyan refused to attend the CSTO Summit held in Minsk in November 2023 and later stated in a televised question-and-answer session that any decision regarding Armenia’s continued membership in the organization, which includes Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, would be based on Armenia’s “own state interests.”
In light of the deteriorating relations between Moscow and Yerevan, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan stated in a declaration on March 7, 2024, that Armenia no longer needs the Russian “peacekeeping forces” stationed at the international Zvartnots Airport in Yerevan.[3] Mirzoyan added that the request for the withdrawal of the Russian contingent only applies to those stationed at the airport, and there is currently no plan for Russian soldiers to leave their positions along Armenia’s borders with Turkey and Iran.
Prime Minister Pashinyan announced in a press statement on March 12, 2024, that his country has given Russia until August 1, 2024, to withdraw the border guards stationed at the airport since 1992. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov confirmed that the Armenian side communicated their decision to them via a letter. Peskov stated that the relevant Russian and Armenian parties are currently in “contact” regarding the matter.[4]
As Armenia distances itself from Russia and the CSTO, it concurrently seeks to enhance its dialogue with the European Union (EU) and NATO. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan stated in an interview with TRT World on March 9, 2024, that amid the escalating tensions with Russia, Armenia is considering applying for membership in the European Union to strengthen its ties with Western countries.[5]
The strengthening of Armenia’s relations with the West has led to heavy criticism from the Moscow government. In a statement made in the first week of March 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that if Yerevan continues to distance itself from Moscow and move closer to the West, Russia will seriously “reconsider” its relationship with Armenia:[6]
“The Armenian Government has decided to rely on countries outside the region that are laying siege to Yerevan, and Armenia has promised to help them with all their troubles as long as it destroys its relations with Russia and the integration structures created in our region. The West doesn’t hide it. We cannot ban them from making any statement or announcement about our future relations. If this is the view of the Armenian people, let it be the new policy of the Yerevan administration. It is quite politically ambitious to say that Armenia has completely followed the wrong path in its relations with Russia since 1991. If this is an assessment based on the people’s opinion, then it necessitates reconsidering many things in Russo-Armenian relations. We are waiting for the official confirmation of what Yerevan’s final decision will be.”
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova expressed concern about the planned Armenia-EU-US meeting scheduled for April 5, 2024, citing Washington and Brussels’ overt “anti-Russian stance.” Zaharova highlighted that such meetings raise concerns in most regional countries, as the goal is not to establish peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia but rather to “further inject the West’s highly destructive approaches into the South Caucasus, create new lines of division in the region, compel regional countries to implement anti-Russia policies, destroy their centuries-old ties with Moscow, and undermine existing regional security and economic cooperation mechanisms.”[7]
Russia consistently warns Armenia against becoming a tool of the West. Armenia, feeling disappointed by Russia’s stance, is increasingly leaning towards the West to avoid being squeezed in the triangle of Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Russia in South Caucasus geopolitics. Meanwhile, the West is also making efforts to create an “anti-Russian” position in South Caucasus, just as it tries to undermine Russia through Ukraine. NATO countries, which conduct cooperation agreements and joint exercises with Armenia in the context of security concerns, have simultaneously granted candidate status for EU membership to Georgia. Although there have been occasional tensions since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, South Caucasus, generally seen as within Russia’s sphere of influence, has gained new significance in the current geopolitical context.
[1]“Pashinian Says Armenia Freezes Membership In Russian-Led Security Alliance”, Radio Free Europe, https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-pashinian-csto-frozen/32832200.html, (Date of Accession: 29.03.2024).
[2] Aynı yer.
[3] Ostiller, N., “Armenia asks Russian ‘peacekeepers’ stationed at Yerevan’s airport to leave”, Kyiv Independent, https://kyivindependent.com/armenia-asks-russian-peacekeepers-stationed-at-yerevans-airport-to-leave/, (Date of Accession: 29.03.2024).
[4]“Deadline Set For Russian Border Guards To Leave Yerevan Airport”, Azatutyun, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32858718.html, (Date of Accession: 29.03.2024)
[5] Basmat, D., “Armenia considering applying for EU membership amid growing tensions with Russia”, Kyiv Independent, https://kyivindependent.com/armenia-considering-applying-for-eu-membership-amid-growing-tensions-with-russia/, (Date of Accession: 29.03.2024).
[6] “Russia Warns Of Response To Armenia’s Tilt To West”, Azatutyun, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32847225.html (Date of Accession: 29.03.2024).
[7]“Zaharova: Ermenistan, Batı’nın Kafkasya’daki tehlikeli planları için bir araç haline getiriliyor”, Sputnik, https://sputniknews.com.tr/20240328/zaharova-ermenistan-batinin-kafkasyadaki-tehlikeli-planlari-icin-bir-arac-haline-getiriliyor-1082157181.html, (Date of Accession: 29.03.2024).
