Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland, issued a clear warning that Europe had entered the “pre-war period” and that no one in Europe would feel safe if Ukraine was defeated by Russia.[1] “In his statement, Tusk said that “Any scenario is indeed possible” and continued his remarks as follows:[2]
“I don’t want to scare anyone, but war is no longer a concept of the past. We need to mentally get used to a new era. We’re in a pre-war period. I’m not exaggerating. It’s becoming more and more obvious every day.”
Poland, the Baltic states and the United Kingdom are constantly warning about the growing risk of war from Russia towards Europe. It should be recalled that in the run-up to the Second World War, Poland was the centre stage of the conflict between the Allies and the Axis powers, both politically and militarily. Poland’s partnerships, especially with Britain, led it to be dragged further into the war. It can be said that a similar situation is also taking place today. In February 2022, when Russia was preparing to attack Ukraine, Poland formed a triple defence alliance with both Ukraine and Britain. Today, the two countries stand out as the allied states that provide the greatest support to Ukraine’s war against Russia.
Prior to Tusk, British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps made similar warnings in a speech in January 2024, suggesting that the alliance was facing a “pre-war world”. On the other hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied that he intends to “go to war with NATO” in the event of a Russian victory in the war in Ukraine. However, Putin and other Russian officials had strategically concealed this intention even in the weeks immediately preceding the attack on Ukraine in 2022. Putin’s statements are therefore no comfort to Central and Eastern European leaders. Nevertheless, an important question arises here. Can Russia challenge NATO?
In response, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, speaking at the Hudson Institute, commented:[3]
“We are more technologically advanced, better prepared, better trained… Russia is now fighting a real war, is building this army and expects us to be prepared politically, not militarily.”
Tusk likewise emphasises that European leaders should adopt a tougher stance, especially politically. In short, it is very important for Europe to prepare themselves psychologically for this war. While Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez asked EU leaders to stop using the word “war”, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that war in Europe’s own region is no longer an abstract idea.
As the debate on war with Russia continues, the political-psychological readiness of Europe is a question mark. Since the beginning of the war, the EU and its 27 members have pledged €49.7 billion in military aid to Ukraine but have so far managed to provide or allocate only €35.2 billion. Current military assistance continues to be provided by a few major donors, such as the Nordic countries, Germany, or the United Kingdom. Most past donors have made little or no new pledges.
While the voices of “war” are being raised in Europe, the success of Ukraine’s struggle against Russia is another subject of debate. Almost the entire West has come to accept the fact that the counter-attack launched by the Ukrainian Army in June 2023 ended in failure. There have been intense debates between the UK, the US and Ukraine about the responsibility for this failure. It seems that both the strategy was unsuccessful and the equipment was inadequate. Another important factor was the performance of the Russian Army. All these factors have increased the transatlantic rivalry. On the one hand, the UK is making a concerted effort to ensure that the US continues its military-financial support to Ukraine, while on the other hand it is calling on continental Europe to prepare for war.[4]
If Russia creates other crisis areas in its neighbourhood after Ukraine, this would be an additional blow to US interests. Indeed, the US considers that the war in Ukraine has delayed dealing with the problems in the Asia-Pacific and the fight against its main rival, China. Therefore, paying close attention to the security of Europe would only waste time for the United States. Therefore, the US wants Europe to turn its face away from Ukraine and focus on the Asia-Pacific as soon as possible. Europe, on the other hand, is having difficulties in forming a political unity within itself. In this sense, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warns that the situation in Europe is similar to the pre-World War II conjuncture. If Europe fails to build political unity to ensure its own security, this could accelerate the process of the West’s collapse from within.
[1] “If Ukraine is defeated, no one in Europe is safe, warns Tusk”, MSN, https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/if-ukraine-is-defeated-no-one-in-europe-is-safe-warns-tusk/ar-BB1kMa1Q, (Date of Access: 30.03.2024).
[2] “NATO allies: War with Russia could come ‘very soon’”, Washington Examiner, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/foreign-policy/2945273/nato-allies-war-with-russia-soon/, (Date of Access: 30.03.2024).
[3] Ibid.
[4] Ibid.
