The recent proceedings at the European Parliament have sparked significant discourse regarding Armenia’s relationship with the European Union (EU). During a session marked by deliberations on closer collaboration between the EU and Armenia, a resolution was passed, proposing to explore the prospect of elevating Armenia to the status of a candidate for EU membership. Such a move signifies a potential paradigm shift in the dynamics between Armenia and the EU, indicating a willingness on the part of the European Parliament to deepen its engagement with the nation. This resolution, which comes amidst Armenia’s increasing disillusionment with Russia’s protection and its desire for greater autonomy and integration with Western institutions, further underlines the geopolitical shifts taking place in the region.
Armenia’s history is closely linked to its ties with Russia, particularly because of its Soviet era. Following its independence, Yerevan has maintained strong political, economic, and military connections with Russia through different agreements and alliances, including joining the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Other former Soviet republics, in particular Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, have all actively pursued deeper integration with the European Union, encountering various challenges along the way. Georgia, despite securing EU candidate status, contends with the complexities of two Russian-backed conflicts within its borders, namely Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Similarly, Moldova has been provided with a clear pathway to EU membership, despite the presence of a Kremlin-backed proxy state in Transnistria. In Ukraine, the pursuit of closer ties with the EU has been met with resistance from Russia, manifested in the annexation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine.
In contrast to the pro-EU pathways pursued by Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, Armenia took a divergent course in 2013 when its previous government opted to align with the Russia-led Eurasian Customs Union.[1] Nonetheless, recent disappointments with Russia have played a significant role in shaping Armenia’s evolving opinion and approach towards its foreign policy orientation.
Yerevan has often looked to Moscow for protection and support, particularly in the face of regional conflicts and geopolitical pressures. However, Armenia’s relationship with Russia has been complex, marked by moments of discontent and tension. The 2018 “velvet revolution” in Armenia signalled a significant shift in the country’s domestic politics, with pro-Moscow elites being ousted from power and a reformist government taking their place. This change brought about a reevaluation of Armenia’s ties with Russia, particularly in terms of its approach to democracy, civil rights, and foreign policy.
This discontent with Russia’s protection became even more apparent during the border war in 2022 and the subsequent conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Despite Armenia’s formal obligations within the CSTO, Russia’s response was perceived as inadequate by many Armenians. The lack of support during the border conflict and the decision by Russian peacekeepers to stand back during Azerbaijan’s offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh led to widespread disillusionment and anger among Armenians. The mass exodus of Armenian residents from Nagorno-Karabakh further underscored the perceived failure of Russia to protect Armenian interests effectively. In light of these developments and amid growing dissatisfaction with Moscow’s handling of key regional issues, Yerevan ultimately made the decision to suspend its membership in the organization.
Armenia’s refusal to support Russia’s actions in Ukraine, particularly Putin’s war, highlighted this divergence in their foreign policy priorities. The reformist government in Armenia sought to distance itself from Moscow’s aggressive tactics and align more closely with Western values of democracy and human rights.
Other movements have manifested Yerevan’s dissatisfaction with the Kremlin. In a notable departure from its previous reliance on Russian arms procurement, Armenia has recently diversified its defence partnerships by turning to France and India for military equipment. This strategic shift was exemplified by the procurement of MBDA-made Mistral missiles from France, signifying a move away from traditional Russian suppliers.[2] Furthermore, Armenia’s defence cooperation with France has expanded beyond arms deals to encompass training and advisory services. In a significant development, a partnership was forged between France’s prestigious Saint-Cyr military school and the Armenian military academy.
Furthermore, amid escalating tensions and increased Russian strikes on infrastructure and civilian targets in Ukraine, Yerevan also declared its intention to extend humanitarian aid to the affected areas, which caused a diplomatic ripple effect. In response to Armenia’s pledge of aid, Russia summoned the Armenian ambassador, reflecting Moscow’s concerns regarding Armenia’s decision to support Ukraine during the crisis.[3]
While the path to EU membership is known to be a lengthy and intricate process, often taking years to materialize, and in some cases never achieving fruition, the recent resolution proposing consideration of Armenia as a candidate for EU membership exemplifies a striking shift in the dynamics of Russia’s sphere of influence in the region. Moreover, the resolution reflects broader geopolitical trends in the post-Soviet space, where nations are increasingly seeking to assert their sovereignty and pursue their own strategic interests independent of traditional alliances.
[1] “Armenia Turns Away from the EU”, OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich, https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2013-09-04/armenia-turns-away-eu, (Accessed: 13.03.2024).
[2] “France Plants Flag in Russia’s Backyard with Armenia Arms Deals”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/france-seeks-to-up-ante-in-former-soviet-union-with-new-weapons-for-armenia/, (Accessed: 13.03.2024).
[3] “Russia Summons Armenian Ambassador Over Ukraine Aid Pledge”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-summons-armenian-ambassador-over-ukraine-aid-pledge/, (Accessed: 13.03.2024).
