Transnistria, with a population of approximately 470,000, is a thin strip of land located between the eastern bank of the Dniester River and Moldova’s border with Ukraine. The state, whose official name is “Republic of Pridnestrovian Moldova”, has its own currency and flag. Transnistria, which is not officially recognized, appealed to Russia for help due to the economic blockade imposed by the Moldovan administration, with the decision adopted on February 28, 2024, at the congress of deputies at all levels of the Republic of Moldova.
The decision adopted at the congress stated the following:[1]
“Transnistria is under conditions where more than 220 thousand Russian citizens live permanently on the territory of the Republic of Moldova and the pressure from Moldova is increasing. Taking into account Russia’s unique positive experience in establishing peace in the Dniester, as well as its status as a guarantor and mediator in the negotiation process; it was decided to accept the application to the Russian Federation Council and State Duma with a request to implement measures to protect Transnistria.”
It is emphasized in the document that the Republic of Transnistria Moldova is exposed to unprecedented pressure and threats in the economic, social, humanitarian, military and political fields. Vadim Krasnoselskiy, leader of the Transnistrian Republic of Moldova, stated that there are those who try to intimidate their citizens and silence their voices, and said that they do not want the truth about the situation in the region to be told to the world.
Speaking at the congress, Krasnoselskiy made the following statements:[2]
“Notice what kind of hysteria there is. The aim of bloggers and some so-called media organizations is to disperse, intimidate and silence the congress… The voices of Transnistria residents must be heard. We must talk about our freedom and our rights. Everyone who escalates the hysteria is against peace in Transnistria. Don’t hesitate to speak up. No one has the right to shut our mouths. It is our right to make our voices heard!”
In the statement made by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the same day, the following statements were included:[3]
“Protecting the interests of the inhabitants of Transnistria, our citizens, is one of our priorities. All requests are always carefully evaluated by the relevant departments of Russia.”
These developments also created a sensation within the European Union (EU). The day after Transnistria’s statement, Peter Stano, Spokesperson of Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said that the union was closely monitoring the situation in Transnistria and maintaining close contacts with Moldovan officials. Additionally, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that Paris will open a permanent defense mission in Chisinau in the coming months. Speaking at a joint press conference with Moldovan President Maia Sandu in the capital Paris, Macron used the following statements:[4]
“The opening of the permanent defense mission in Chisinau in the coming months will also allow us to work more effectively to strengthen our cooperation in terms of training, training and interoperability of our armed forces… We will contribute bilaterally to this collective effort to strengthen your country’s sovereignty and security. This is the meaning of the security agreement that our defense ministers will now sign, which will create a framework for strengthening our cooperation.”
In a referendum held in Transnistria in 2006, more than 95% of voters supported the option of joining Russia, but the vote was not recognized internationally. At the time, the US State Department described this referendum as “a provocative referendum that cannot be taken seriously.” In his text message to SitRep, Moldova’s Ambassador to the USA, Viorel Ursu, said that the separatist authorities in Transnistria have requested help from Russia at least three times in the last two years, two of them in Moscow, and stated that a possible annexation is unrealistic:[5]
“The assumptions about the annexation request, widely spread in the press before the incident, were in fact well-planned disinformation and an example of information pressure that created panic on Moldova. I believe the main reason behind this congress is to remind Russia that they still exist and to demand more funding from the Kremlin.”
In light of the latest developments, it does not seem possible for Russia to intervene in Transnistria with a military operation, as it previously carried out in Georgia and continues today in the case of Ukraine. Russia has 1,500 soldiers in Transnistria from the former 14th Guards Army, which was stationed in Moldova when it was Soviet territory. The tactical capacity of this military force is considered limited. Considering that Transnistria has no land connection with Russia and that Russia is currently conducting a large-scale operation in Ukraine, it does not seem realistic for Russia to carry out a sustainable military operation in Transnistria.
Transnistria’s call for Russia’s support against the sanctions of the Moldovan government can be read as a new position of polarization in the West-Russia polarization. Transnistria, the breakaway region of Moldova that wants to join the EU and openly showed its support for Kiev in the Ukraine War; has been seen as one of the primary problems that Moldova needs to solve in the process of integration with the West since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is also clear that the Moldovan government took this situation as an opportunity in the political climate in which Russia was preoccupied with Ukraine and increased the pressure on Transnistria.
[1] “Moldova’nın ekonomik ablukası altındaki Transdinyester Rusya’dan yardım talep etti”, Sputnik, https://sputniknews.com.tr/20240228/moldovanin-ekonomik-ablukasi-altindaki-transdinyester-rusyadan-yardim-talep-etti-1081183435.html, (Date of Access: 09.03.2024).
[2] Ibıd.
[3] “Rusya Dışişleri Bakanlığı: Transdinyester’in yardım talebini dikkatle değerlendireceğiz”, Sputnik, https://sputniknews.com.tr/20240228/rusya-disisleri-bakanligi-transdinyesterin-yardim-talebini-dikkatle-degerlendirecegiz-1081194759.html, (Date of Access: 09.03.2024).
[4] “Fransa Cumhurbaşkanı Macron: Moldova’da daimî savunma misyonu açacağız”, Sputnik, https://sputniknews.com.tr/20240307/fransa-cumhurbaskani-macron-moldovada-daimi-savunma-misyonu-acacagiz-1081489253.html, (Date of Access: 09.03.2024).
[5] Detsch, J., “Breakaway Transnistria Asks for Russian Aid”, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/29/breakaway-transnistria-asks-for-russian-aid/, (Date of Access: 09.03.2024).
