The Scandinavian country of Finland is known for its social welfare, quality of education and technological development. Geopolitically, it represents the outer border of the European Union and the northeastern flank of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Finland has recently focused on elections to strengthen its democratic structure and shape its governance. The Presidential Elections in February will witness an interesting race.
According to the results of the first round, former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb and former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, the country’s top diplomat for 2019-2023, will face off in the second round. Stubb was prime minister in 2014-2015 and represented the conservative National Coalition Party.
Former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto of the Greens is an environmentalist politician. Former Foreign Minister Haavisto is a human rights defender who has also worked as a peace negotiator.
The electoral dynamics were evident in the first round when Stubb from the center-right National Coalition party received 27.2% of the vote and Haavisto, an independent liberal candidate, received 25.8%. Stubb seems to be in an advantageous position in the second round as well. The fact that far-right candidate Jussi Halla-aho came third with 19% of the vote was considered an unexpected result, especially by experts.[1]
Finland’s first election since joining NATO brings with it the potential for significant change and uncertainty. The 74.9% turnout in the elections reflects the Finnish people’s interest in these elections.[2] The record turnout of advance voters shows that the public has a great desire to understand the importance of this election and the uncertainties of the future.
The second six-year term of the current President of Finland, Sauli Niinistö, expires in March. The February 11, 2024 run-off will be between two candidates, with the winner needing more than 50% of the vote to be declared president. Stubb and Haavisto represent different visions of Finland’s foreign policy, security strategies and international relations. This election is crucial in determining the country’s future leader and strategic orientation.
In Finland, unlike in most European countries, the president has executive authority in determining foreign and security policy. The President of Finland is the executive of foreign and security policy, especially in relations with countries outside the European Union, such as the United States of America (USA), Russia and China. The President also acts as Commander-in-Chief of the Finnish Army, a particularly important role in the current European security environment.
Finland’s admission to NATO last year prompted threats of “countermeasures” from Russia, with which Finland shares its entire 1,340 km land border.[3] In December, Finland closed its border with Russia in response to an increase in the number of migrants trying to cross into Russia and cyber-attacks in the country.
The main themes of the election include Finland’s NATO membership, policies towards Russia, increased security cooperation with the US and assistance to Ukraine.[4] These issues can affect Finland’s geopolitical position as well as its role in international affairs. However, in recent weeks, the focus on domestic issues has changed the electoral dynamics in Finland. This shows that voters are more focused on domestic issues rather than foreign policy.
Political leaders in Europe will be watching the election with interest due to Finland’s strategic location. The outcome of the election could have profound implications for the NATO security alliance, the North-Baltic region and the Russian threat. The election will also help observers to predict the direction of European politics ahead of the parliamentary elections in June.
In addition, populist, anti-EU parties are expected to perform well in this year’s European Parliament elections. A report by the European Council on Foreign Relations states that populists should come first in nine countries and come second or third in nine others.[5]
If a Haavisto presidency materializes, Finland’s approach to China could take a balanced stance. During the campaign Haavisto demonstrated a nuanced understanding of the complex relationship between Finland, the EU and China. He highlighted human rights and cybersecurity issues, stating that these would form an important part of his diplomatic agenda.[6] However, Haavisto may be willing to continue the dialogue on the condition that human rights concerns are addressed in order for economic relations to continue. This could lead to a more cautious and measured approach to economic engagement. It could focus on reducing dependencies in critical sectors while emphasizing cooperation in areas such as climate change and the green economy.
In another scenario, Finland’s China policy could take a more influential turn under Stubb’s presidency. Stubb is important given his views on global power dynamics and technological competition shaping the world order. Stubb advocates a human-centered approach to artificial intelligence and technological developments.
Both Haavisto and Stubb understand the importance of balancing national interests with overall international dynamics. However, their different perspectives suggest that Finland-China relations could change significantly depending on the presidential outcome. The next Finnish president will play a critical role in navigating the emerging challenges and opportunities in relation to China and other great powers.
As a result, this election will be a critical juncture in determining the country’s future leader, influencing political dynamics and shaping its geopolitical position. It will not only play a decisive role in the future of the Finnish people, but will also shape the political, economic and social orientation of the country.
Finland’s new president will have to deal with geopolitical tensions on the country’s borders, while assuming the responsibilities of NATO membership. Both candidates’ approaches to these issues will play a critical role in shaping the country’s future security and foreign policy strategies. This election is likely to be an important milestone in shaping Finland’s domestic and foreign policy orientation.
[1] Miranda Byrant, “Centre-Right Party Ahead in Finnish Presidential Election”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/28/centre-right-party-ahead-in-the-finnish-presidential-election-polls, (Date of Access: 29.01.2024).
[2] Jari Tanner, “Finland’s Presidential Election Runoff to Feature Former Prime Minister and Ex-Top Diplomat”, AP News, https://apnews.com/article/finland-president-election-stubb-haavisto-nato-2bd0d09cf0bcd7a65a8b5abdef80f829, (Date of Access: 29.01.2024).
[3] “Stubb Narrowly Wins First Round of Finland’s Presidential Election”, Aljazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/28/finns-head-to-the-polls-to-pick-new-president, (Date of Access: 29.01.2024).
[4] Same place.
[5] Harriet Marsden, “How Finland’s Tightening Presidential Race Could Affect Future of Europe”, The Week, https://theweek.com/finland-presidential-race-future-of-europe-russia, (Date of Access: 30.01.2024).
[6] “The Finnish Presidential Election And The Future Of Finland-China Relations: Pekka Haavisto Vs. Alexander Stubb”, The Helsinki Times, https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/politics/24838-the-finnish-presidential-election-and-the-future-of-finland-china-relations-pekka-haavisto-vs-alexander-stubb.html, (Date of Access: 30.01.2024).
