North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un has called for a “fundamental change” in relations with South Korea. Kim said he will no longer consider South Korea a counterpart for reconciliation and unification.[i] Bilateral relations had worsened after North Korea launched a spy satellite into space. “Relations between North and South Korea are no longer those of the same peoples but have become those of two hostile countries or countries in a state of combat,” Kim was quoted as saying by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).[ii]
South Korea increased the rapprochement in bilateral relations during the previous government Moon Jae-in’s term. However, it can be said that South Korea’s approach towards North Korea has changed, especially if its recent defense diplomacy and alliance with the US are evaluated. In 2023, the South Korea-Japan-US triple alliance conducted joint military exercises, developed arms trade, and agreed on intelligence sharing, especially about North Korea. This situation was interpreted by the North Korean administration as “a threat against himself”. Regardingly, North Korea’s state-run news outlet says the country’s leader Kim Jong Un has condemned security cooperation among Japan, the United States and South Korea and threatened what he calls a “super-tough counteraction”.[iii]
The increase in North Korea’s nuclear missile tests and the activation of its production factories have been met with concern by the international community. Therefore, the United States has stated many times that it is in favor of resolving this conflict through diplomacy. On December 28, 2023, “The United States harbors no hostile intent toward the DPRK and the United States has been very clear — we seek dialogue with Pyongyang without preconditions.” US Secretary of State Spokesperson Matthew Miller told Yonhap News Agency.[iv] However, according to North Korea; US interest in the Korean Peninsula is a threat to national defense. In addition, the increasing cooperation between Washington and Seoul is a tool of provocation for them.
According to North Korean state media, Kim Jong-un said his army should “completely destroy” the United States and South Korea if provoked. In a meeting with commanding army officers on Sunday, 31st of December, 2023, he said the country needed to sharpen “the treasured sword” to safeguard national security.[v] Moreover, Pyongyang has plans to expand defense spending next year. In a five-day meeting of the ruling party on the last week of December, 2023, Mr Kim pledged to launch three new spy satellites, build military drones and increase his country’s stock of nuclear weapons in 2024.[vi] North Korea is also expected to test intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US mainland and other significant new weapons.
North Korea has preached for the notion of “Uriminzokkiri (우리민족끼리),” which roughly translates into “among our own people,” in handling inter-Korean affairs and the issue of reunification. But at the latest WPK meeting, the North’s leader announced a shift in dealing with Seoul as relations of “two countries in a state of war”.[vii] State media now uses the official name “Republic of Korea” (ROK) instead of “South Korea”. Thus, in case of any war, he can offer an excuse that “he will be at war with the enemy state instead of an army of his own race.”
After Kim Jong-un said that there was no point in seeking reconciliation and unification with South Korea, he began negotiations to dissolve the institutions responsible for inter-Korean relations. Furthermore, At the end of a key Workers’ Party meeting, Kim stressed the need to take measures for “readjusting and reforming” the organizations in charge of inter-Korean affairs, including the United Front Department (UFD), and to “fundamentally change the principle and orientation of the struggle.”[viii]
It should not be forgotten that polarization is generally increasing in the Northeast Asian region. On the one hand, relations between Japan, South Korea and the USA are tightening; On the other hand, diplomatic traffic between North Korea, China and Russia is increasing. For example, it is noteworthy that Russia’s help was behind North Korea’s spy satellite success. From the strategic point of view, North Korea has been expanding ties with Russia, among others, as Washington accuses Pyongyang of supplying military equipment to Moscow for use in its war with Ukraine, while Russia provides technical support to help the North advance its military capabilities.[ix] It can be said that relations between South Korea and North Korea will become even more difficult in the new year and reconciliation through diplomatic means will become almost impossible. Pyongyang’s military strengthening is one of the reasons, and probably the most important, for abandoning bilateral reconciliation. It is also important to emphasize that in the ongoing wars in different parts of the world, the parties supported by the USA have not won the war. According to most of North Korean Leader Kim’s statements, the real reason for the conflict on the peninsula is South Korea’s cooperation with the USA. Thus, it can be said that a possible war situation may arise from the US-South Korea rapprochement.
[i] Kim Soo-yeon, “(News Focus) N.K. Leader Says 2 Koreas Are ‘Hostile Nations at War’ With No Chance of Unification”, Yonhap News Agency, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231231002300315?section=nk/nk, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2023).
[ii] Aynı yer.
[iii] “Kim Raps Japan-US-S.Korea Cooperation, Threatens ‘Super-Tough Counteraction’”, NHK World News, https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20240101_02/, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2023).
[iv] Song Sang-ho, “(LEAD) U.S. Reaffirms ‘No Hostile Intent’ To N. Korea After Kim Calls for Stronger War Preparations”, Yonhap News Agency, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231229000351315, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2023).
[v] “Kim Jong Un Says North Korea Should ‘Thoroughly Annihilate’ US And South Korea If Provoked”, Sky News, https://news.sky.com/story/kim-jong-un-says-north-korea-should-thoroughly-annihilate-us-and-south-korea-if-provoked-13040402, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2023).
[vi] Aynı yer.
[vii] Kim Soo-yeon, a.g.e., (Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2023).
[viii] “N. Korea Begins Discussions on Dismantling Agencies Handling Inter-Korean Affairs”, Yonhap News Agency, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20240101002500315?section=nk/nk, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2023).
[ix] Choi Soo-hyang, “North Korea’s Kim Orders Military to Accelerate War Preparations – State Media”, Radio New Zealand, https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/505700/north-korea-s-kim-orders-military-to-accelerate-war-preparations-state-media, (Erişim Tarihi: 02.01.2023).
