The rivalry between the United States (US) and China, which has grown rapidly in the last 20 years, is expected to determine the future of the international system and perhaps the fate of humanity. The key elements of this struggle are economic growth and the development of military capacity. If the US cannot halt China’s rapid economic growth, it will lose its global economic leadership by 2036. Similarly, this economic growth will provide China with the means to allocate more resources to its defense budget.
Washington is shifting its entire strategy towards the Asia-Pacific in order to emerge victorious in its global competition with Beijing. The process of economic and military containment of China has been accelerated by the Asia-Pivot strategy launched under former US President Barack Obama. Australia has increasingly played a greater role in the US strategy to encircle China over the past decade.
As a result of Washington’s pressures on Canberra, the positive momentum in China-Australia relations has gradually faded over time. One of the most significant ruptures in bilateral relations emerged when Australia joined the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) in 2017. A similar trade war to those in the U.S.-China competition has now begun between Australia and China. Canberra has also joined Washington’s move to ban the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei from 5G networks. İkili ilişkilerdeki en büyük kırılmalardan biri Avustralya’nın 2017 yılında Dörtlü Güvenlik Diyaloğu’nda (QUAD) yer almasıyla ortaya çıkmıştır.
Another turning point in Beijing-Canberra relations was the establishment of the AUKUS defense alliance in 2021. Moreover, these ties have been deepening steadily. Indeed, on March 14, 2023, the leaders of Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom came together to outline the roadmap for AUKUS. Thus, the positive atmosphere in China-Australia relations, which have been on an up-and-down course since 2017, has largely disappeared.
The Beijing government criticizes AUKUS, claiming that it poses a ‘threat to regional peace and stability,’ and serves the arms race and polarization.[1] In Beijing’s view, these three countries are pursuing their own geopolitical ambitions and ignoring the concerns of the international community, following a wrong and dangerous path.[2] Meanwhile, Australia is attempting to both enhance its military capabilities and maintain relations with China. Canberra continues to target Beijing, in part due to prolonged US pressure on Australia.
Western-axis countries, including Australia and Japan, have been under close political and military influence from the United States in the Asia-Pacific region for approximately the past year. As a result, China’s diplomatic, economic, and security activities in the region have been subject to criticism by the United States and its allies. Alongside Australia, it is noticeable that the Philippines, Japan, and even South Korea are demonstrating solidarity against China in the region. In addition to Australia, the Philippines, Japan and even South Korea have shown solidarity with China in the region. The main difference in the China strategies of the US and its allies is that the US is much more aware of China’s red lines on critical issues such as Taiwan. However, regional allies like Australia ignore China’s sensitivities or unwittingly cross these lines.
In recent years, for example, Australia has increased its military exercises with Japan, the Philippines and the United States near the South and East China Sea. As a great power, the United States maneuvers carefully in these seas. However, this does not apply to other allies. In the latest example, actors like Canada and Australia have only recently begun to accept China’s dominant position in these seas. The Philippines, Canada and Australia, which are struggling to counter a great power like China militarily and diplomatically, could provoke a possible war in the region with their provocative moves.
The fact that Australian Prime Minister Antony Albenese has been a guest at the NATO Leaders’ Summit for the last two years, along with the leaders of Japan, South Korea and New Zealand, is one of the dangerous moves aimed at provoking China. Against the backdrop of a growing “anti-China” axis in the Asia-Pacific, Australia has agreed to increase the number of American troops in the country. On the one hand, China seeks to develop its relations with Australia on the basis of mutual respect and win-win principles; on the other hand, Australia prefers to polarize with China, pushing its own interests to the background for the sake of American hegemony.
As a result, Australia has become directly involved in the US-China rivalry. As bloc politics gains momentum in the Asia-Pacific, the US is dragging its regional allies, especially Australia, into a dangerous game.
[1] “China’s Reaction to AUKUS Agreement”, America-Times, https://www.america-times.com/chinas-reaction-to-aukus-agreement/, (Erişim Tarihi: 28.03.2023).
[2] Same page.
