After the Cold War, the United States of America (USA) assumed the “world’s gendarme” and claimed that the international system had become unipolar. However, given the conjuncture, although the military and political power of the United States remained effective, its rivals developed rapidly and the international system subsequently took on a polycentric structure. Therefore, it can be argued that the competition in question is shaped by the race for influence and frozen conflicts have come to the fore. One of the issues we encounter in this framework is the Kosovo-Serbia tension.
It can be said that actors competing on a global scale avoid being a party to a direct conflict due to the reactions that may arise against them in the international community due to globalization and the binding nature of international law. For example, the sanctions imposed on Russia due to the Russia-Ukraine War and the decisions taken according to international law make this situation understandable. Global competition takes the form of a struggle for economic and political influence rather than direct intervention by the parties.
Washington struggles to maintain its influence in many geographies and prioritizes preserving the existing order. Since the old system cannot be preserved due to changing global dynamics, the US aims to play an active role in the new system. From this point of view, it can be said that the US has taken the initiative in addressing the security concerns of its European allies. In this way, on the one hand, Trans-Atlantic security relations will be maintained, and on the other hand, the US’s rivals will be prevented from gaining influence. One of the issues where this struggle for influence manifests itself is the Kosovo-Serbia tension.
Kosovo declared its independence in 2008, despite various attempts in the historical process. However, the fact that it is not recognized by Serbia prevents the normalization of the two actors and thus the region. Considering the importance of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Serbian national identity and Serbian-Russian relations within the framework of Panslavism, a possible tension in the region is perceived as an expansion of the Kremlin’s sphere of influence and is aimed to be prevented. Although the European Union (EU) played the role of mediator, the tensions since 2022 have continued with increasing momentum. On September 24, 2023, it has been argued that the developments in the Balkans led to the political destabilization of the region. At this point, the US interest in the Balkans has increased.
With the war in Ukraine, Moscow has been subjected to Western sanctions and has accelerated its efforts to build an alternative power center to the US-dominated international system. Using grain and energy as leverage, Russia would have a favorable condition to deepen its relations with Serbia in the event of a possible escalation in the region. Ultimately, if the conflict were to spill over to Europe, strained relations would lead to increased European security concerns. At this point, Washington is approaching the situation with a proactive policy.
In the trans-Atlantic security equation, the military relationship between the US and European actors is maintained through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). At this point, NATO is seen as a deterrent actor to prevent potential risks and ensure political stability in the region. Considering the US influence on NATO, it can be argued that Washington is trying to address the security concerns of its European allies through NATO. On September 24, 2023, NATO’s announcement that the military presence of the Kosovo Peacekeeping Force (KFOR) had been strengthened in response to the escalation proves this. [1] Given the geopolitical location of the Western Balkans, a potential conflict would have a direct impact on Europe, reminding the EU of its political and the US of its military power.
One of the important issues to be emphasized is the approach of Pristina and Belgrade to this issue. The attitude of the parties to this tension shapes their relations with global actors. The first issue here is how Kosovo views the West. Due to its cosmopolitan nature, Kosovo is dealing with a number of problems related to political stability. In particular, the demographic structure of North Mitrovica, Zubin Potok, Leposavic and Zveçan puts the Pristina governance to a political test. It can also be argued that Kosovo wants to get rid of its political isolation and turn towards the West. However, its stance in the EU-brokered normalization process has distanced Pristina from this goal. According to Kosovo’s approach, the way to normalize relations is for Serbia to recognize it.
Another issue that needs to be addressed is Serbia’s attitude towards the West. Compared to Kosovo, Belgrade is far from political isolation and enjoys relative political stability. This is mainly due to its deep relations with Russia and its strategic partnership with China. Therefore, it is hard to argue that Belgrade is without options in the face of possible Western sanctions. However, instead of turning its back on the West, Serbia pursues a policy of balance and attaches importance to integration with the West, especially seeing the EU as an economic opportunity. At this point, for the Kosovo-Serbia conflict, it can be said that Belgrade looks favorably on the Union of Serbian Municipalities or a similar administrative power, although there are comments that Belgrade considers Kosovo as a part of it. This is evidenced by the fact that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic called on Serbian representatives in Kosovo to organize local elections in these 4 municipalities as soon as possible. [2]
It is possible to say that NATO has been very influential in Kosovo-Serbia relations. It would be an incomplete approach to say that NATO is present in the region only for its European allies. This is because Serbia aims to deepen its relations with the West without harming its relations with Russia and China, even though the conflict of September 24 has had a negative impact on the process. At this point, Belgrade’s demand for a NATO-led peacekeeping force to take over the National Police in northern Kosovo in case of extremism in the current tensions can be read as an attempt to prevent Serbia’s approach to the West and a public opinion that could be formed against it. [3]
It can be argued that the parties on the Belgrade-Pristina line are moving away from normalization. Therefore, the West is likely to increase its presence and pressure on actors in the region. In particular, the statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg emphasizing that the return of the old violence will not be allowed is evidence of the West’s position. [4] In addition, US Ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill’s statement calling for Serbia to recognize Kosovo is an indication that Washington is very interested in the relations between the two actors. [5]
Based on all these, it can be argued that the frozen conflict has re-emerged in Kosovo-Serbia relations. It can be predicted that the status of Kosovo Serbs, which is seen as one of the important elements of the problem, will be discussed in the long run and the issue will turn into an international agenda. It is possible to say that the US will deepen its role in the tension against the expansion of its influence by Russia and China, with whom it competes on a global scale. Washington does not want to give its rivals room to maneuver and lose its hegemony, neither in the region nor on a global scale.
In conclusion, the power struggle in global politics manifests itself in different geographies. The tension between Kosovo and Serbia is seen as a risk by the EU and therefore the US due to its geopolitical location. Considering that trans-Atlantic security relations are shaped through NATO, it is possible to say that Washington will increase its presence in the region to address the security concerns of its European allies and to prevent Russia’s influence. Since both Belgrade’s and Serbia’s positions do not meet the expectations of the West, it can be predicted that the tension between the two actors will be on the international agenda and this situation may be shaped by the status of Kosovo Serbs.
[1] “NATO Beefs Up İts Kosovo Force As The US Worries About A Buildup Of Serb Troops İn The Area”, APnews, https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-clashes-raid-police-f671bd21560f60bdca72d2daf7ce50ef, (Erişim Tarihi: 29.09.2023).
[2] “Vučić pozvao Srbe sa Kosova da izađu na izbore”, Aljazeera, https://balkans.aljazeera.net/news/balkan/2023/10/13/vucic-pozvao-srbe-sa-kosova-da-izadju-na-izbore, (Erişim Tarihi: 13.10.2023).
[3] “Serbia Demands That NATO Take Over Policing Of Northern Kosovo After A Deadly Shootout”, APnews, https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-shootout-nato-policing-vui-3d28b4431ffb3a0428899c59cef773e2, (Erişim Tarihi: 26.09.2023).
[4] “Stoltenberg: NATO neće dozvoliti reprizu nasilja iz 1990-ih”, Aljazeera, https://balkans.aljazeera.net/news/balkan/2023/10/9/stoltenberg-nato-nece-dozvoliti-reprizu-nasilja-iz-1990-ih, (Erişim Tarihi: 09.10.2023).
[5] “Хил: Би сакал Србија да сфати и да признае дека Косово е независна држава”, Slobodenpecat, https://www.slobodenpecat.mk/hil-bi-sakal-srbija-da-sfati-i-da-priznae-deka-kosovo-e-nezavisna-drzhava/, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.10.2023).
