Existing cooperation in Central Asia related to the Belt and Road Initiative covers various sectors, such as energy, transport, and cultural exchanges, and includes projects of different sizes. Under this project, Central Asian countries are pursuing various strategies aimed at economic integration and the use of trade routes. These projects aim to strengthen regional cooperation and create new opportunities for economic development.
Therefore, Ankara Centre for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) presents the views of Murad Nasibov, Research Assistant at Justus Liebig University in Giessen, Germany, to assess the role and importance of Central Asia in the Belt and Road Initiative.
1-How do Central Asian countries view economic integration under the Belt and Road Initiative? What are the implications of this integration for regional stability?
Understanding the motivations behind states’ policies when it comes to issues as complex as the Belt and Road Initiative. One way to discern the thinking behind motivations in such cases is to look at the facts on the ground and assume that the actors involved are rational, maximize their own interests, and have sufficient analytical skills.
The Belt and Road Initiative is a highly flexible tool that China can use to deploy its financial and economic instruments abroad, with a focus on Central Asia for several reasons. It provides China with access to alternative European routes and energy sources. In addition, by maintaining good relations with Muslim countries, China seeks to prevent the rise of fundamentalist groups that pose a threat to its borders.
China’s interest in the region also stems from its own economic structure. In recent years, China has evolved from a mere producer and supplier of products to an active service provider abroad. Chinese companies are “internationalizing” themselves through government programs as service providers in infrastructure construction. This can be seen as a way for China to sustain its long-term growth. Central Asia is one such market for Chinese companies. At the same time, the fact that Central Asia lies to the west of China contributes to China’s less focus on heavy industry and economies in the east and southeast, while drawing some to the western regions. If there is a power vacuum in the region as Russia’s capabilities dwindle in the wake of the Ukraine war, China needs to keep India and the West out of the region. That is the broad outline of China’s policy, and at the heart of it is the Belt and Road Initiative.
On the other hand, Central Asian states are looking for alternative sources of investment and new trading partners, especially after Western sanctions against Russia. They are also trying to implement “multilateralism,” which they have declared the main direction of their foreign policy since the early 1990s. It would be a good strategy for the Central Asian states to increase the number of their economic and political partners. It would create and improve the scope of action of the various powers interested in the region. Located in the heart of Eurasia and surrounded by many regional powers or ambitious states, Central Asian states can achieve real success through rich cooperation with a wide range of partners. In the international relations literature, “hedging” is the concept that best describes Central Asia’s foreign policy motivations.
2. How do you think Central Asian countries plan to increase their exports and imports by using the Belt and Road Initiative trade routes?
Each Central Asian country is pursuing different strategies to benefit from the Belt and Road Initiative trade routes. Kazakhstan is focusing on becoming a transit hub, which will lead to a significant increase in container traffic between China and Europe. As Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made clear in one of his recent interviews, Kazakhstan, together with Azerbaijan, is one of the biggest supporters of the Central Corridor, seen as part of this project. Although the project was proposed a long time ago, it has gained more importance since the start of the war in Ukraine. Cargo transportation through Trans-Caspian International Transport increased by 2.5 times in 2022.
During this period, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have emerged as co-leaders of the project, intensifying their cooperation on measures to facilitate the use of the Central Corridor. Uzbekistan’s new trade agreements with Afghanistan and collaboration on the Trans-Afghan Railway with Pakistan aim to diversify export markets. Turkmenistan, evaluating projects such as the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, seeks alternatives for its energy exports to China. These efforts reflect a strategic reorganization of trade. The lack of coordination among Central Asian countries may hinder the full realization of the potential benefits.
3. What are your views on the existing examples of co-operation in Central Asia on the Genus and Road Initiative, and what benefits do these examples offer to countries?
Current co-operation covers sectors such as energy, transport and even cultural change, ranging from small community-level projects to long-term transnational projects. For example, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Project aims to facilitate trade and cultural linkages, China’s access to the coast of the Khazarian Sea. But delays in the project have shown how complex regional co-operation is.
The agreement on feasibility studies was signed at the last Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in September 2022. Although the route within Kyrgyzstan is somewhat controversial, it has finally reached a settlement. The new line plans a route from China to Europe via Turkmenistan, Iran and Turkey, aiming to shorten the journey by about 900 kilometres and eight days. China’s interests are not just about reaching Europe, but also about regional interests. For example, the agreed route will also link China to gold mines in the Makmal region of Kyrgyzstan, where Chinese investors are. Under normal circumstances, geological research was expected to begin earlier this year.
China’s Belt and Road Project is not just a trade route for Central Asia. Such projects will help China develop multidimensional and more careful relations with Central Asian countries and help Central Asia strengthen itself far beyond a transit route. Investments in infrastructure projects fuel economic prosperity in the region. Indeed, investments pledged at the first Central Asia-China Summit in May 2023 totaled $3.6 billion.
Murad Nasibov
Murad Nasibov works at the Justus-Liebig University in Giessen. He is working on the project “Eurasian Regionalism” funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and also contributing to the project “SHAPEDEM-EU” funded by the European Union (EU). He has been continuing her PhD at the same university since 2018. He holds an MA in Political Science from the University of Manchester (2011) and a BA in International Relations from the Academy of Public Administration in Baku (2010). Between 2012-2017, he worked for international NGOs in Azerbaijan. As a lecturer, Nasibov taught seminars in International Relations at different private universities in Baku between 2012 and 2016. Since 2018, he has been teaching seminars on international security, Eurasian geopolitics and research methods to undergraduate and graduate students at Justus-Liebig University. In addition to his work in academia, he provides consultancy support to different international companies and organizations.
