The most important projects in Central Asia are the “Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Natural Gas Pipeline (TAPI)” and “Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP)”. The TAPI project, which has been postponed for a long time, has been taken steps towards its realisation in recent years with the efforts of Turkmenistan. Factors such as regional security problems, conflicts between the countries party to the project and lack of financing have been effective in the postponement of the project. When the project is completed, it will be possible to ship Turkmen gas to India.
The TAPI Project has been the subject of a series of debates since the day it was announced due to the vast geography it covers and serious delays have been experienced in the project. In the summer of 2021, the Taliban’s seizure of power in Afghanistan was the biggest break in the project. The Taliban government has constantly stated that it has taken additional security measures for the project. As a result, the Taliban government and Turkmenistan officials continued negotiations and made decisions for the completion of this line. Accordingly, Turkmenistan will provide a loan to Afghanistan for the completion of the line, and the transit toll from this line will be used to repay the loan. Despite the difficulties in Afghanistan, Turkmenistan is making great efforts to complete the line. The cost of the project is estimated at around USD 7.5 billion and, if completed, it is expected to deliver approximately 33 billion cubic metres of gas per year from Turkmenistan to India via Afghanistan and Pakistan. [1]
Afghanistan will be able to purchase gas from Turkmenistan for 30 years under the TAPI Project. In the first 10 years of the project, Turkmenistan will supply Afghanistan with 500 million cubic metres of natural gas per year, in the second 10 years with 1 billion cubic metres per year, and in the third 10 years with 1.5 billion cubic metres per year.[2] The natural gas to be purchased from Turkmenistan will ensure sustainable electricity generation in the power plants in the country. Thus, power cuts, which have become an important problem in the country, will be prevented.
The TAPI Project is turning into a trump card that Afghanistan can use against both India and Pakistan in foreign policy. Since TAPI is a big project, it is also very important for the economies of Pakistan and India. If the project in question is realised, both Afghanistan’s energy needs will be met and the ground will be prepared for regional actors to invest. The project to transport Turkmen gas to India leads to a deepening of the regional power struggle. India is the third largest energy consumer in the world. India’s problems with Pakistan complicate the implementation of the project.
India is keen to develop close relations with the Central Asian states. Considered as a member of the Western Alliance, India, with its large economy and population, has the capacity to rival China in Asia. Therefore, having strong ties with Central Asia, where China is influential, will strengthen India’s hand among its Western allies. It will also reap economic gains if the project is completed. However, the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan is a noteworthy issue in terms of regional conflicts, which is one of the reasons why the project has been delayed so far. Due to the instability and fragile security structure of the region, the parties should take serious responsibilities and adopt a constructive attitude in order to realise the project. In this context, Turkmenistan may play a mediation role in the dispute between India and Pakistan.
At this point, it is useful to look at the benefits that Pakistan will derive from the project. In recent years, Pakistan has been having difficulties in providing domestic and industrial gas supply. Therefore, it would like to see the project realised. In this context, Turkmenistan’s balanced relations with India, China and Pakistan may be effective in the success of TAPI. Relations between China and India are also among the factors that will affect the process. The US fuelling the rivalry between China and India has a negative impact on the TAPI Project.
The negotiations on the TAPI Project, which have gained momentum in recent years, are failing due to the conflicts of interest of regional actors. If this project is realised, Turkmen natural gas will be less dependent on China in terms of market and will reach a large market such as India. In addition, India will also gain different alternatives to meet its energy needs. This is a profitable project for both sides. However, the reasons for the postponement of the construction process of TAPI are still not eliminated. Both security problems in the region and financing problems for the countries on the project route persist.
India may want to strengthen its relations with Central Asian countries in order to be an influential country in the region against the problems that may arise in this process and to closely follow the diplomatic process. On the other hand, China needs Turkmen gas for the continuity of its industry and production. In this sense, the TAPI Project is seen as a rival project by Beijing as it will create a peace process on the Turkmenistan-India line.
[1] “Türkmenistan-Afganistan-Pakistan-Hindistan (TAPI) Doğal Gaz Boru Hattının Güvenlik Planı Anlaşması İmzalandı”, Ticaret Bakanlığı, https://dtybs.ticaret.gov.tr/blog/post/4444/, (Erişim Tarihi: 28.08.2023).
[2] “TAPI Koridorunun Özellikleri”, Business, https://business.com.tm/tr/post/6657/tapi-koridorunun-ozellikleri, (Erişim Tarihi: 28.08.2023).
