As post-Soviet states, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are at odds over various issues such as borders and water. At various times, armed conflicts occur between the parties and regional stability is disrupted. This situation causes insecurity between the states and leads to a security dilemma in the region.
One of the policies pursued by states in this process has been to purchase armed/unarmed unmanned aerial vehicles (UCAV/UAVs), one of the most talked about technologies on the world agenda and in industrial defense, and to produce them with national capabilities. Weapons that changed the course of conflicts and wars in the field provided countries with a significant psychological advantage. In addition, the fact that UCAV/UAVs inflict heavy casualties despite their low cost was an important advantage on the world agenda..
At this point, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have also turned to purchasing UCAVs. This has led to discussions of deepening tensions and insecurity in the region. However, after the last conflict in September 2022, changes and transformation in both regional dynamics and global dynamics prevented the parties from resorting to the use of military force.
After the September 2022 conflict, Tajikistan turned to peaceful means more intensively as a result of Kyrgyzstan’s foreign policy and Russia’s statements on the process. In this context, contacts and meetings have started to be held continuously at various levels between various institutions, including both capitals and officials in the field, in order to determine the borders. As a result, thanks to the strong will of the parties to solve the problems, the work to determine the borders continues rapidly.
The first reason for the parties to prioritize peaceful means over the use of military force is the realization that violence will not solve the problems. Secondly, conflicts in the region destabilize both states and Central Asia. Central Asia has adopted the principle of peaceful settlement of bilateral conflicts for the sake of secure and stable development. In this context, regional actors put pressure on both Bishkek and Dushanbe to make peace. Moreover, conflicts and the use of military force impose a significant cost on the economies of both states. The damage caused by the security dilemma and the losses incurred in conflicts reduce the attractiveness of a possible victory.
On the other hand, conflicts will make it easier for terrorist, radical and separatist threat sources to establish a presence in the region. As is known, Afghanistan is one of the most important threat bases in the region. A conflict in the region has the potential to increase the influence of various terrorist organizations. For example, according to a statement by the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the so-called Khorasan Emirate (ISKP) of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is based in Afghanistan near the border with Tajikistan.[1] A potential violent and sustained conflict would make it easier for the ISKP to infiltrate and entrench itself in the region, posing a greater threat to the Dushanbe administration.
Finally, on May 2, 2023, Human Rights Watch published a report titled “When We Moved, They Shot” on how the clashes between Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces between September 14-17, 2022 harmed civilians. In the report, the organization argues that both sides committed war crimes during the conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.[2] The organization pointed out that security forces from both sides attacked civilians during the clashes and that war crimes were committed at this point. The report also stated that the people of the region paid the heaviest price during the clashes.[3]
It can be said that the Human Rights Watch report further increased the pressure on Bishkek and Dushanbe. On top of that, the parties had taken various steps to reduce violence in a possible conflict. Due to previous conflicts, the parties had established a direct line of communication with the influence of other countries and regional actors. Secondly, and especially in the period after the report, the Bishkek and Dushanbe administrations took decisions on the use of UCAVs. In this context, the Kyrgyz administration announced on May 24, 2023 that the parties had agreed not to use drones on the common borders. This agreement is a rare development in terms of conventional weapons.[4] However, this can be considered as a preliminary step to new agreements between the parties.
The agreement is an important development in regional and bilateral relations. It is normal for it to be accepted today, when tensions are low. However, there is a possibility that in the event of a conflict, and especially on the side that suffers the greatest casualties, UCAVs could be used. Therefore, the use of UCAVs in a new conflict would undermine the trust and cooperation steps recently built between the parties. While the agreement signed in this context is important for regional stability, preventing a new conflict is of utmost importance for sustainable cooperation. In the end, it can be said that UCAVs have led to regional rapprochement in a “balance of terror”-like manner.
[1] “6500 ISIS-K Terrorists Operating in Afghanistan: CSTO Chief”, BNN, https://bnn.network/conflict-defence/6500-isis-k-terrorists-operating-in-afghanistan-csto-chief/, (Date of Accession: 26.05.2023).
[2] “When We Moved, They Shot: Laws of War Violations in the September 2022 Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Border Conflict”, Human Rights Watch, https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/media_2023/05/kyrgyzstan_tajikistan0523en.pdf, (Date of Accession: 26.05.2023).
[3] “Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan: Apparent War Crimes in Border Conflict: Justice Needed for Lethal Attacks on Civilians”, Human Rights Watch, https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/05/02/kyrgyzstan/tajikistan-apparent-war-crimes-border-conflict, (Date of Accession: 26.05.2023).
[4] “Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan Agree Not to Use Drones in Border Areas”, The Defense Post, https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/05/25/kyrgyzstan-tajikistan-drones-border/, (Date of Accession: 26.05.2023).
