The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Natural Gas Pipeline Project (TAPI) is at the center of the search for energy-based cooperation along the Central Asia-South Asia route. The project can be interpreted as an important symbol for the search for regional security, development and prosperity with its peaceful approach that puts cooperation in the face of crises and conflicts on the agenda.
The project, which aims to export Turkmen gas to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, and from there to the world via the Indian Ocean, was an initiative that came to the agenda in the 1990s and gained momentum with the financial support of the Asian Development Bank in 2003. However, it has not yet been completed due to both Afghanistan-based instability and disputes in Pakistan-India relations. However, in addition to increasing Turkmenistan’s energy exports, the project offers other stakeholder states the opportunity to meet their energy needs and increase their geopolitical and geoeconomic importance as an energy corridor.
The 1814 km TAPI project envisages the supply of up to 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Galkynysh, the world’s second largest natural gas field and Turkmenistan’s largest, to Fazilka in northern India, near the border with Pakistan.[1] TAPI is therefore an important regional cooperation initiative that offers profitable opportunities for all stakeholders. For this reason, the parties have periodically taken initiatives to accelerate TAPI.
In this framework, it is seen that initiatives to make progress in TAPI have gained momentum as of June 2023. In fact, Turkmen Turkmengaz State Concern Chairman Maksat Babayev and Pakistani Prime Minister Mian Mohammad Shahbaz Sharif signed an agreement on a joint plan for the accelerated implementation of TAPI, namely the roadmap, and the parties mutually reaffirmed their confidence in the project.[2]
It is known that Turkmenistan has come to the forefront as an important actor in the context of the increasing energy needs of the West, especially after the Russia-Ukraine War. At this point, Ashgabat is focusing on Caspian-based energy projects and the Central Corridor on the one hand, and on initiatives that will both meet the needs of the regional states and reach the Indian Ocean on the other. Therefore, determining the road map of TAPI and putting forward a concrete will to accelerate the work on the project is of great importance both regionally and globally.
On the other hand, given that Pakistan is an energy importer and continues to source energy from Russia despite the sanctions and may even have to face Western scrutiny for this, accelerating TAPI is also important for Islamabad. In such an environment, the approach of the Taliban, which dominates Afghanistan, regarding the fate of TAPI is crucial. Indeed, Taliban Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani stated on June 12, 2023 that there are promising developments for the construction of the Afghanistan section of the project.[3]
In today’s conjuncture where Afghanistan is isolated by the international community and in a sense the West is punishing the Afghan people while acting to punish the Taliban regime, it can be argued that the Taliban’s participation in TAPI is also critical for Afghanistan. Because through TAPI, Afghanistan will be able to gain gains in terms of integration into the international community as well as attract serious investments. This will increase Afghanistan’s geopolitical and geoeconomic gains. Therefore, the Taliban has a positive attitude towards TAPI and states that it will fulfill its responsibilities regarding the project.
Finally, to mention the Indian dimension, it should be emphasized that there was no statement from New Delhi regarding the developments in June 2023. However, considering that India has recently reduced its reservations about the Taliban and activated its embassy in Kabul, and even adding to this information the New Delhi administration’s statement that it will continue its humanitarian aid activities, especially food, to Afghanistan, it can be predicted that India will continue to support TAPI.[4] In fact, India has frequently underlined that it welcomes the project. Moreover, it is possible that India and Pakistan, which are at odds over the Kashmir issue and border disputes, will develop a cooperative approach through TAPI, and thus the project will push regional rivalry to the background and put cooperation at the center. Therefore, it can be argued that TAPI holds significant opportunities for India, Pakistan and the region.
Conclusively, developments regarding TAPI have intensified as of June 2023. The agreement signed between Turkmenistan and Pakistan confirms this. Haqqani’s statement revealed that there is no problem in the Taliban dimension. India is also expected to continue its support for the project. This will increase regional and global cooperation in terms of energy, paving the way for the development of a win-win relationship between the actors and increasing the geopolitical and geoeconomic importance of the stakeholder states.
[1] “Saudi Arabia Expresses Its Support for TAPI Gas Pipeline Project”, Business Turkmenistan, https://business.com.tm/post/7631/saudi-arabia-expresses-its-support-for-tapi-gas-pipeline-project, (Date of Accession: 12.06.2023).
[2] “Turkmenistan, Pakistan Agree on Plan to Accelerate Implementation of TAPI Project”, Trend News Agency, https://en.trend.az/business/energy/3760364.html, (Date of Accession: 12.06.2023).
[3] “Haqqani Seeking Control of Afghanistan Section of TAPI Pipeline, Says UN Report”, The Times of India, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/haqqani-seeking-control-of-afghanistan-section-of-tapi-pipeline-says-un-report/articleshow/100924618.cms, (Date of Accession: 12.06.2023.).
[4] “Amid Taliban Outreach, India to Boost Food Aid to Afghanistan”, AKI Press, https://akipress.com/news:714028:Amid_Taliban_outreach,_India_to_boost_food_aid_to_Afghanistan/, (Date of Accession: 12.06.2023).
