The Karabakh conflict, which has been going on for years, has recently evolved in different directions. Before 2020, there was a status quo in the region in favor of Armenia. However, since then, Azerbaijan has managed to turn the situation in the region in its favor. The Baku administration took its first strong step with a 44-day operation in the Karabakh region. In this sense, the Second Karabakh War ended in a ceasefire with the mediation of Russia.[1] On November 10, 2020, as a result of the Moscow Declaration signed between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, it was agreed that a corridor would be opened to a part of Karabakh that could not be liberated from occupation and that this corridor would be monitored and protected by the Russian Peacekeeping Force.[2] This route, located in the Lachin region, has been named the Lachin Corridor.
After the agreement, this route was opened for transportation. Thus, Azerbaijan showed its support for peace. However, the Baku administration claimed that the Armenian government did not implement some of the articles of the agreement. Therefore, the region witnessed hot conflicts. At the same time, the Azerbaijani government also claimed that the Lachin Corridor was being abused. Indeed, the President of Azerbaijan, Mr. Ilham Aliyev, has stated that there is a huge trade in minerals as well as arms transportation on this route. He added that this situation harms the environment.[3]
Several protests have been organized by environmental activists in the region due to these allegations. This has led to stricter controls on crossings through the route. However, the Yerevan government claimed that the corridor was completely closed. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan proved with various evidences that the crossings continue.[4]
These problems and Armenia’s prolongation of the peace talks led Baku to take an important step. On April 23, 2023, Azerbaijan sent troops to the beginning of the Lachin Corridor and established a checkpoint in this region. Subsequently, it raised a flag and announced to the world that the region was under Azerbaijani rule.[5]
This situation has been met with reactions by many actors around the world, especially by Armenia and the separatist government in Karabakh. In particular, Russia, the US and France are among the countries that have reacted. The US claims that this checkpoint will harm the steps taken for peace.[6] France, on the other hand, is working to remedy this situation by organizing a visit at the Foreign Minister level.[7] Russia also replaced the Commander of the Russian Peacekeeping Force in the region and appointed Alexander Lentsov. Lentsov stated that negotiations were being held to restore the situation.[8]
The new situation on the Lachin Corridor puts Yerevan in a difficult situation. Baku, on the other hand, seems to be preparing to take further steps. Russia is also sitting at the table with Azerbaijan in order to maintain its weight in the region. In case no decision in favor of Armenia emerges from this process, it can be predicted that the Armenian government’s interest in the West will increase. The West, on the other hand, is trying to unite both countries under its will by using the Karabakh conflict. This is why Azerbaijan’s step is an opportunity for the US. The Azerbaijani government, on the other hand, wants to gain the support of both the US and Russia and is conducting effective diplomacy to this end.
In conclusion, Azerbaijani control of the Lachin Corridor will prevent illegal crossings. Moreover, the Karabakh separatist administration will be weakened militarily. In this way, an important opportunity will be seized to prevent the “Third Karabakh War” that may break out in the future.
[1] “Azerbaijan Calls on Armenia to ‘Accept Reality’ Following 2nd Karabakh War”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/azerbaijan-calls-on-armenia-to-accept-reality-following-2nd-karabakh-war/2850223, (Date of Accession: 28.04.2023).
[2] “Armenia-Azerbaijan, Tensions Rise As Baku Establishes Border Control on Lachin Corridor”, Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso Transeuropa, https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Azerbaijan/Armenia-Azerbaijan-tensions-rise-as-Baku-establishes-border-control-on-Lachin-Corridor-224902, (Date of Accession: 28.04.2023).
[3] “BM Güvenlik Konseyinde Azerbaycan ve Ermenistan arasında Laçın Koridoru tartışması”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/bm-guvenlik-konseyinde-azerbaycan-ve-ermenistan-arasinda-lacin-koridoru-tartismasi/2769340, (Date of Accession: 29.04.2023).
[4] “3 Soruda-Azerbaycanlı STK’lerin Laçın Koridoru’ndaki maden protestoları”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/3-soruda-azerbaycanli-stklerin-lacin-koridorundaki-maden-protestolari/2787503, (Date of Accession: 29.04.2023).
[5] “Azerbaijan Sets up Checkpoints on the Lachin Corridor”, Economist İnteligence, https://www.eiu.com/n/azerbaijan-sets-up-checkpoints-on-the-lachin-corridor/, (Date of Accession: 29.04.2023).
[6] “US ‘Deeply Concerned’ by Azerbaijan’s Checkpoint on Lachin Corridor Bridge”, VOA, https://www.voanews.com/a/us-deeply-concerned-by-azerbaijan-checkpoint-on-lachin-corridor-bridge/7062738.html, (Date of Accession: 29.04.2023).
[7] “Fransa Xarici İşlər Nazirinin Azərbaycana Səfəri Başlayır”, Report, https://report.az/xarici-siyaset/fransa-xarici-isler-nazirinin-azerbaycan-ve-ermenistana-seferi-baslayir/, (Date of Accession: 29.04.2023).
[8] “Назначен новый командующий российскими миротворцами в Карабахе”, Lenta, https://lenta.ru/news/2023/04/26/karabakh_new/, (Date of Accession: 29.04.2023).
