The most important issue that has caused discussions among the member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for many years is the budget allocated by the member states of the alliance for defense expenditures. In this context, in 2006, NATO Defense Ministers agreed to allocate at least 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defense expenditures in order to continue to ensure the military readiness of the alliance..[1]
In particular, this situation leads to disagreements between some European countries and the United States of America (USA). Because the USA is the state that allocates the most budget to the defense field among NATO member countries and it wants European actors to meet the military needs of the alliance in financial terms.
Especially under the previous US President Donald Trump, the Washington administration has put pressure on some NATO countries to increase their military spending to 2% of their GDP. In 2018, Trump urged NATO members to fulfill their 2% commitment, noting that this ratio should eventually rise to 4%.[2] Thus, with the Trump era, the issue of increasing the defense expenditures of the member countries to 2% of their GDP has started to become one of the hottest agenda items of NATO.
On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine War, which started on February 24, 2022, led to the fact that NATO countries increased their defense expenditures to 2%. After the start of the war, many NATO countries committed to spend 2% of their GDP on defense. For example, in 2022, Czechia 2025, Denmark 2033, Hungary 2024, Italy 2028, Luxembourg 2028, Netherlands 2025, North Macedonia 2024, Romania 2023, and Slovenia, which have a GDP below 2% in 2022, have committed to meet the said target by 2030.[3]
Currently, 30 countries are members of NATO. As of 2022, only seven states among the 30 members spent 2% of their GDP on defense. These countries; USA (3.46%), Greece (3.54%), England (2.16), Poland (2.42), Estonia (2.12), Latvia (2.07) and Lithuania (2.47). However, Europe’s largest economies, Germany, France and Italy, could not meet the 2% target. Germany remained at 1.49, Italy at 1.51, and France at 1.89.[4] As it can be understood, this picture brought with it discussions that NATO countries were militarily inadequate before Russia’s intervention in Ukraine.
On the other hand, when the seven countries that have achieved the 2% commitment are examined, it is seen that Greece aims to achieve this rate within the framework of its own military targets. On the other hand, it can be said that the USA and the UK are already trying to reach this rate regularly, since they want to play a leading role in this regard within NATO. However, the fact that Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania allocate 2% of their GDP to the defense area is closely related to threat perceptions.
As a matter of fact, the Baltic countries, formed by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, are among the European states that perceive the most threat from Russia. Poland, on the other hand, is the center of anti-Russianism in Eastern European geopolitics. In this context, the fact that the four countries fulfilled the 2% commitment should not be considered as a surprise. So that; Poland announced in February 2023 that it will allocate 4% of its GDP to the defense field for 2023.[5]
As can be seen, the war in question led to significant changes in Poland’s security paradigm. It can be argued that this move of the Warsaw administration may cause pressure on the NATO members that insist on spending 2% of their GDP on defense.
Germany, the richest country in the European Union (EU), has insisted on spending 2% of its GDP on defense for many years. However, this resistance of Germany was broken with the war in Ukraine. First of all, the Berlin administration announced a military spending plan of 100 billion euros after the start of the war. However, in December 2022, Berlin announced that it would try to meet NATO’s 2% GDP target by 2025.[6]
Germany’s 2% commitment cannot be read independently of the war. Because before the start of the war, Germany was one of the countries that had the closest relations with Russia among the European countries. In this context, rather than a choice of Berlin’s move; It can be said that it is due to necessity.
Moreover, NATO; He asked Europe’s most economically powerful countries such as Germany, France and Italy to allocate 2% of their GDP to the defense field even before the war in Ukraine started. However, the current conjuncture in the world and the conjuncture before the war started show great differences. For this reason, although the three countries in question allocate 2% of their GDP to the defense field in the coming years, it is clear that this will not have the effect before the war. For example, on March 21, 2023, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas expressed shock when he looked at who among NATO members had fulfilled the 2% commitment. Also, Kallas said, “Everyone should know and see what’s going on in Ukraine, understand that we don’t have that much time.” he said.[7] Considering that Estonia is one of the seven countries that fulfill the 2% commitment in 2022, it can be said that the Tallinn administration is trying to put pressure on other countries in the alliance.
As a result, the war in Ukraine has led to significant changes in the security paradigms of the countries within NATO. Many countries that insisted on raising their GDP to 2% for a long time made a commitment to meet the target in time. Therefore, it can be predicted that the 2% defense expenditure target will continue to be one of the hottest agenda items of NATO for a long time to come.
[1] “Funding NATO”, NATO, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_67655.htm, (Erişim Tarihi: 29.03.2023).
[2] Mikkel Runge Olesen, “Donald Trump and the Battle of the Two Percent”, Danish Institute for International Studies, https://www.diis.dk/en/research/donald-trump-and-the-battle-of-the-two-percent, (Date of Accession: 29.03.2023).
[3] “Defence Spending Pledges by NATO Members Since Russia Invaded Ukraine”, UK Parliament, https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/defence-spending-pledges-by-nato-members-since-russia-invaded-ukraine/, (Date of Accession: 29.03.2023).
[4] Aurelie Pugnet, “Majority of NATO Members Still Short of Alliance’s Spending Pledge”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/majority-of-nato-members-still-short-of-alliances-spending-pledge/, (Date of Accession: 29.03.2023).
[5] “Poland to Rise Defense Spending to Over 4 Pct GDP in 2023: President”, TVP World, https://tvpworld.com/66255029/poland-to-rise-defense-spending-to-over-4-pct-gdp-in-2023-president, (Date of Accession: 28.03.2023).
[6] “Germany Says Will Reach NATO Spending Target By 2025”, The Defense Post, https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/12/06/germany-reach-nato-spending-2025/, (Date of Accession: 28.03.2023).
[7] Lili Bayer, “Is There a War on? Big EU Powers Still Short of NATO Spending Targets”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/is-there-a-war-on-big-eu-powers-miss-nato-spending-targets-again-allies/, (Date of Accession 28.03.2023).
