The political conjuncture of the Asia-Pacific Region is mainly shaped by alliances and exercises. As a matter of fact, Asia-Pacific has turned into a field of competition between the West and its regional allies, which are the founders of today’s international system, and states that challenge the international order, such as China and North Korea. Because the region is seen as the area where global geopolitical ruptures will take place. This leads to an increased interest of the West in the region, especially the United States (USA) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). One of the important reasons for this is that China, whose rise cannot be prevented, is located in this region. Therefore, Washington is trying to surround China on a regional scale in the context of its global struggle against Beijing.
In this context, the visits of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to South Korea and Japan between 29 January-1 February 2023 are very important.[1] As a matter of fact, it can be said that NATO wants to strengthen its dialogue with both states and is trying to increase its influence in the Asia-Pacific. Because NATO, a Western-based defense organization, wants to increase the pressure on China and North Korea in the region. Another important reason for this situation is the emergence of North Korea as a nuclear power. Pyongyang has increased both ballistic missile and nuclear tests after passing legislation declaring itself a nuclear power.[2] For this reason, the threat perceptions of the regional states, especially Japan and South Korea, have been reinforced.
Another reason for this situation is China and its increasing global geopolitical and geoeconomic power. In this context, NATO gives the message that it will support Taiwan in a possible crisis by increasing its effectiveness in the region. The message given to Taiwan is also conveyed to Moscow through the Russia-Ukraine War. Because the West sees affinity in Taiwan and Ukraine issues. The point that stands out in this context is actually the West’s perception of these crises. Because, in the eyes of the West, a blow to Moscow in the Ukraine War will deter Beijing from attacking Taipei.
In addition to all these, Russia’s reasoning for the Ukraine War is NATO’s expansion and approaching its borders can be considered within the same framework. In such a reading, Stoltenberg’s visits can be interpreted as a message given to China via Taiwan.
On the other hand, it can be predicted that the increasing influence of the West in the Asia-Pacific Region will further provoke China and North Korea. Moreover, the West may be aiming for this and forcing China to make a choice. As a matter of fact, if the increasing influence of NATO provokes China as well as Russia and prompts them to intervene in Taiwan, a study can be carried out to show Beijing as an “aggressive” actor.
On the other hand, if China does not act against this pressure, it will both lose its prestige on a global scale and lose its credibility in the eyes of other revisionist actors who challenge the international order built by Western hegemony.
It can be argued that with Stoltenberg’s visits, NATO wants to keep Japan’s increased armament and security moves under control. Because the West may want Tokyo to pursue a proactive foreign policy under its control, rather than becoming a new threat. Moreover, it can be deduced that in the future, NATO aims to establish new alliances in the region, apart from South Korea and Japan. Considering that Washington is accelerating its strategy of containment Beijing, the inference in question is strengthened.
In addition, military exercises are held in partnership with Washington, Seoul and Tokyo. The establishment of a stable coordination in the triangle of NATO, South Korea and Japan after these visits may open the door to NATO memberships of South Korea and Japan or creation of regional NATOs in the future.
On the other hand, these visits can be read as NATO will continue its expansion strategy, albeit qualitatively, in the short term, despite the Ukraine War. In this context, it can be argued that NATO may raise the issues of the South China Sea, Taiwan and the denuclearization of the region in order to show interest in the region again.
As a result, the Asia-Pacific region has become the chessboard of global geopolitical competition. The increase in NATO’s interest in the region stems from this. In this context, it can be predicted that the tension in the region will not decrease in the short term and the interest of Western actors in the region will continue. It seems inevitable that these visits will provoke more states such as China and North Korea.
[1] “Update: NATO Secretary General to Visit Republic of Korea and Japan”, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_211016.htm#:~:text=NATO%20Secretary%20General%20Jens%20Stoltenberg,Sup%2C%20and%20other%20senior%20officials., (Date of Accession: 09.02.2023).
[2] “Experts: North Korea’s New Law on Preemptive Use of Nuclear Weapons Puts Regime at Risk”, Voice of America News, https://www.voanews.com/a/experts-north-korea-s-new-law-on-preemptive-use-of-nuclear-weapons-puts-regime-at-risk/6749962.html, (Date of Accession: 15.02.2023).
