President of Turkmenistan, Serdar Berdimuhamedov, visited China on 5-6 January 2023. The said visit attracted attention as it coincided with the 31st anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Because this symbolic history is very important in terms of revealing the importance that the parties attribute to each other. Similarly, Mr. Berdimuhamedov’s first foreign visit to China in 2023 reveals the importance of relations on the Ashgabat-Beijing line.
It is possible to state that the most important driving force of Turkmenistan-China relations is energy. Because Turkmenistan is one of the richest countries in Central Asia in terms of energy. On the other hand, China stands out with its energy dependency. For this reason, the Beijing administration imports natural gas from Turkmenistan, which is located in a relatively close geography, taking into account the geographical factor. As a matter of fact, the Ashgabat administration has focused on exports to China in accordance with the “Gas of Asia to Asia” discourse, which Russia has used for many years to dominate the European energy market. The aforementioned situation also reflected positively on Turkmenistan-Russia relations. Because Ashgabat earns a significant income through exports to China without entering into a serious competition with Moscow on energy. As a matter of fact, when we look at the bilateral trade volume in Turkmenistan-China relations, it is seen that the balance is in favor of Turkmenistan. This is due to the natural gas exchange.
However, it is known that after the Russia-Ukraine War, the Moscow administration turned to the Asian market in order to reduce the effect of the sanctions imposed on it. However, although China imports from Russia, it does not take steps to meet the Kremlin’s expectations and seeks ways to deepen its energy relations with Turkmenistan. Mr. Berdimuhamedov’s visit to Beijing has also clearly demonstrated that the energy relations between the parties will develop.
On the other hand, it should be noted that the Middle Corridor also plays a decisive role in the rapprochement of China-Turkmenistan. Because after the Russia-Ukraine War, the importance of the Middle Corridor increased, especially due to the instability in the Northern Corridor. As an actor who wants to be effective in global trade routes, China has focused on the Middle Corridor, which is the lowest cost, safest and shortest route to the West. In this context, it can be argued that the Beijing administration, which wants to reach the West through the Central Asia-Caspian Sea-Caucasus route, wants to improve its relations with Turkmenistan, since it is a riparian to the Caspian Sea. The Ashgabat administration is also very willing in this regard. In fact, Mr. Berdimuhamedov, in his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, clearly stated that Turkmenistan is an important bridge in terms of the Belt-Road Project and that he wants to develop railway connections.[1]
At the same time, this situation is in line with the foreign investment expectation of Turkmenistan, which has taken important steps to offer its people a prosperous future. As a matter of fact, China’s advancing trade relations with Turkmenistan also accelerates its investment in the said country. In this sense, on the occasion of the visit of Mr. Berdimuhamedov, it is seen that Chinese investments in Turkmenistan in strategic fields such as the energy sector, chemical industry, transportation, communication and agriculture were discussed.[2] This shows that China’s increasing economic influence in Central Asia is also valid for Turkmenistan and means that there is a pragmatic relationship between the parties that is shaped by a win-win logic.
When current data are analyzed, it is seen that the trade volume in China-Turkmenistan relations exceeded 10 billion dollars between January and November 2022. This means an increase of 53 percent compared to 2021.[3]
Based on the figures in question, it can be said that the Beijing administration wants to fill the power vacuum in Central Asia after the Russia-Ukraine War. Berdimuhamedov’s visit in such an environment reveals that Ashgabat attaches importance to the commercial potential of relations with Beijing.
On the other hand, it should be emphasized that the visit of Mr. Berdimuhamedov opened the door to move bilateral relations to a new level. In this sense, the relations deepened with the signing of the “Joint Declaration on the Establishment of Strategic Partnership Relations between Turkmenistan and the People’s Republic of China” in September 2013, reached the level of “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” after the aforementioned visit.[4] This means that the relations on the Ashgabat-Beijing line are not just about energy and trade; indicates a much wider spectrum. Therefore, it is possible to foresee that the relations between the parties will continue to expand and deepen.
As a result, Mr. Berdimuhamedov’s visit to Beijing elevated Turkmenistan-China relations to the level of “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” and showed that relations will continue to expand and deepen with a win-win mentality that prioritizes mutual interests. Therefore, it is possible to state that the relations on the Ashgabat-Beijing line will develop further in the context of energy, Middle Corridor and trade in the future.
[1] @CGMeifangZhang, “Turkmenistan firmly opposes any act of attempting to split China. It is willing to bridge its strategy to revive the Great Silk Road with the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (#BRI), expand trade, energy cooperation & enhance railway connections, Serdar Berdimuhamedov said”, Twitter, https://twitter.com/CGMeifangZhang/status/1611258349378568192, (Date of Accession: 06.01.2023).
[2] “Turkmen President Arrives in China on State Visit”, Business Turkmenistan, https://business.com.tm/post/9668/turkmen-president-arrives-in-china-on-state-visit, (Date of Accession: 06.01.2023).
[3] “Turkmenistan Sees Significant Growth in Trade Turnover with China”, Trend, https://en.trend.az/casia/turkmenistan/3690417.html, (Date of Accession: 05.01.2023).
[4] @liupheonix, “Chinese President #XiJinping held talks with visiting Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov in Beijing on Friday, and the two heads of state announced the elevation of #China-#Turkmenistan relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership.”, Twitter, https://twitter.com/liupheonix/status/1611258589091627009, (Date of Accession: 06.01.2023).
