Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is known as the umbrella organization of militant groups opposing the Pakistani government located on Pakistan’s Afghanistan border. The group, which draws attention especially with its attacks in recent years, has an important place among the security problems faced by the Islamabad administration. The ceasefire process, which started between the TTP and Islamabad administration in June 2022, was disrupted by the TTP in November of the same year and the organization started its attacks again.
The suicide attack that took place in Islamabad on December 24, 2022 is an important indicator that the country under Shahbaz Sharif will continue to face the TTP problem. TTP claimed responsibility for the attack in which a soldier was killed and two soldiers were injured.[1] The suicide attack in the country’s capital is significant in that it shows that the TTP is using the ceasefire process to its advantage. It is also of great importance as it is the first attack of the group in the capital for many years.
Established on December 14, 2007, TTP seeks to curb Islamabad’s influence in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas known as FATA and Khyber Paktunkhwa state. The organization’s aims during its founding years included the enforcement of sharia throughout Pakistan, the establishment of an Islamic caliphate, and the exit of Coalition troops from Afghanistan.[2]
As of 2018, there has been a change in the method of attack within the TTP. During Wali Mehsud’s leadership, attacks against civilians were reduced, focusing more on attacks against the government and the army. In 2020, the TTP claimed responsibility for 16 attacks targeting civilians, resulting in 14 deaths. From the July 10, 2018 attack on an election campaign rally in Peshawar, which killed 23 people, until April 2020, there has not been a suicide attack with double-digit fatalities claimed and carried out by the group.[3]
According to the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), there were 207 terrorist attacks in Pakistan in 2021. There was a 42% increase in attacks compared to 2020, resulting in 335 casualties. PIPS reported that the TTP alone was responsible for 87 attacks and that 282 attacks were carried out in 2021, an 84% increase compared to the previous year.
It was stated that more than 500 law enforcement officers lost their lives in these attacks.[4] In 2020, the number of claimed attacks was 149. In a statement released by the organization, it claimed that 42 attacks were carried out in January 2022 and 48 security personnel, including soldiers and police officers, were killed.[5]
As of 2020, the TTP will target security forces more in attacks. Conflicts and operations will be shaped accordingly. In the coming periods, TTP-Islamabad clashes may become more common.
The nature of the latest attack also carries a number of messages and details. The TTP has carried out suicide attacks in Pakistan in the past. However, for the first time in many years, an attack on security forces took place in the country’s capital. This incident in the capital of the country will make the TTP bolder for new attacks. At the same time, it will also have the effect of putting the Islamabad administration under pressure.
The ceasefire seems to have allowed the TTP to regroup and gather strength to launch new attacks. There is speculation that Islamabad may have allowed TTP elements to return to Pakistan from Afghanistan as part of the deal. The organization’s unilateral withdrawal from the ceasefire is seen as a factor that shows that it has no intention of laying down arms.[6] Therefore, it is worth considering the possibility that the ceasefire process may have prepared the ground for these attacks. It can also be said that the momentum of the attacks was determined in line with regional developments.
Following the suspension of the ceasefire by the TTP, the group’s pressure on the Pakistani government began to increase again. It can be said that the country is re-entering a period in which more measures will be taken and counter-operations will be carried out within the scope of national security. It is possible to say that the method to be followed by the Chief of General Staff Asım Munir is also important. In this respect, it is important in which direction the counter operations will proceed.
At this point, it is noteworthy that the United States of America’s (USA) statements that it will support the Islamabad administration in Pakistan’s fight against terrorism are also noteworthy. “The United States stands ready to assist Pakistan in dealing with the resurgent TTP,” the US State Department spokesperson said in a statement.[7] In early December 2022, it was announced that Washington had added the TTP to its list of “Specially Designated Global Terrorists”.[8] Based on these demonstrations of support, it can be interpreted that the US influence will increase in the Pakistani government’s fight against the TTP and operations will be organized in this context.
The developments on the US-Pakistan line on the fight against the TTP will also shape the Taliban’s perspective on the issue. It is also important how the Taliban, which played a mediating role in the ceasefire process, will respond to this issue. The cross-border dimension of the TTP-Islamabad developments will also affect Kabul’s attitude.
[1] “تحریک طالبان پاکستان مسئولیت حمله انتحاری در اسلامآباد را بر عهده گرفت”, Afintly, https://www.afintl.com/202212231117, (Date of Accession: 24.12.2022).
[2] “Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan”, Counter Terrorism Guide, https://www.dni.gov/nctc/groups/ttp.html, (Date of Accession: 24.12.2022).
[3] “The Revival of the Pakistani Taliban”, CTC, https://ctc.westpoint.edu/the-revival-of-the-pakistani-taliban, (Date of Accession: 24.12.2022).
[4] Madiha Afzal “Pakistan’s Ambivalent Approach toward a Resurgent Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan”, Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/02/11/pakistans-ambivalent-approach-toward-a-resurgent-tehrik-e-taliban-pakistan/, (Date of Accession: 24.12.2022).
[5] “The outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Claims in a Statement That It Carried out 42 Attacks and Killed 48 Law Enforcement Personnel, Including Soldiers and Policemen, in the Month of January,” Twitter, https://twitter.com/Roohan_Ahmed/status/1488720806779707394?s=20&t=Jm5-eU30MhivgZQmfh04bQ, (Date of Accession: 24.12.2022).
[6] “Pakistan Could Take Its Fight Against the TTP to Sanctuaries in Afghanistan”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/pakistan-could-take-its-fight-against-the-ttp-to-sanctuaries-in-afghanistan/, (Date of Accession: 24.12.2022).
[7] “Us Seeks Strong Partnership with Pakistan on Counterterrorism”, Dunya News, https://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/683307-US-seeks-strong-partnership-with-Pakistan-on-counterterrorism, (Date of Accession 24.12.2022).
[8] “US Names Anti-Pakistan Groups ‘Terrorist’ Organizations”, US News, https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-12-02/u-s-designates-pakistan-al-qaida-branch-terrorist-groups, (Date of Accession: 24.12.2022).
