One of the most talked about issues during the United States of America’s (USA) withdrawal from Afghanistan has been why this decision was taken. While some experts argue that the USA withdrew because it was defeated, others argue that Washington withdrew abruptly in order to create a climate of confusion and crisis in the region. Looking at the regional developments in the context of these debates, it is seen that although certain stability has been achieved in Afghanistan in particular and in South Asia in general, the attacks of terrorist organizations continue.
The most important issue fueling the debate over the USA withdrawal is the fact that the withdrawing US Army left behind weapons worth approximately 7.1 billion dollars.[1] If these weapons fall into the hands of various terrorist organizations, it has the potential to negatively affect both Afghanistan and the region. Indeed, the recent terrorist attacks in both Afghanistan and Pakistan suggest that this may be the purpose of the USA.
As a matter of fact, the fact that the weapons left behind by the USA during its withdrawal were not destroyed or transferred to the next administration in a controlled manner facilitated the armament of terrorist organizations in the region. As a matter of fact, the so-called Khorasan Province (ISKP) of the terrorist organization State of Iraq and al-Sham (Daesh) has seized some of the weapons left by the USA. Weapons include rockets, machine guns and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).[2] This means that terrorist organizations in the region have increased their attack capacity.
The terrorist organization Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is believed to be another terrorist organization that seized the weapons. On November 16, 2022, a terrorist attack took place in the Lakki Marwat district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. While six Pakistani police officers lost their lives in the attack, a statement on the[3] incident is quite interesting. On November 17, 2022, the Inspector General of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Police, Moazzam Jah Ansari, commenting on the incident, claimed that terrorist organizations had attacked Pakistan after receiving weapons left behind by the USA during its withdrawal.[4] A recent statement by the terrorist organization TTP also confirms this. The organization has announced that they can carry out attacks for a long time with the weapons and ammunition they have.[5]
On the other hand, it is known that the terrorist organization ISKP has recently intensified its attacks in Afghanistan. On September 5, 2022, ISKP attacked the Russian Embassy in Kabul and on December[6] 2, 2022, ISKP targeted the Pakistani Embassy in Kabul.[7] On December 12, 2022, the terrorist organization also attacked a hotel in Kabul where Chinese citizens were staying.
The most critical detail of these attacks is its timing. During the negotiations between the Islamabad administration and the terrorist organization TTP, Daesh’s so-called Islamic State Province of Pakistan (ISPP) has intensified its attacks. As it is known, ISPP was separated from ISKP in 2019 and established in Pakistan. The ISPP and the ISKP are terrorist organizations with ties. Therefore, it can be said that they serve the same purpose. The ISPP claimed 15 attacks between January and November 2022. Eight of these attacks took place between September and October 2022. These date ranges cover the period of negotiations between Pakistan and the TTP.[8]
The reason why ISPP intensified its attacks during this period is that it wanted to attract terrorists who were uncomfortable with TTP’s meeting with the Pakistani government. Moreover, as a newly established terrorist organization, the ISPP has been spreading propaganda through its attacks and wants to take advantage of the unrest in the region. Lastly, ISPP appears to have played the role of a “peace-breaking actor” in the Pakistan-TTP talks.[9] Given the strong ties between the ISKP and the ISPP, it can be argued that this organization has also been using weapons left by the USA.
As can be understood, the weapons left by the USA affect not only Afghanistan but also the whole of South Asia and cause instability. In fact, Major General Ajay Chandpuria of the Indian Army has stated that the American weapons used in Afghanistan were used by terrorists trying to infiltrate the Control Line. Therefore, it can be stated that these weapons increase the attack capacity of terrorist organizations.[10]
In conclusion, the weapons left by the USA in Afghanistan fell into the hands of terrorist organizations in the region, which has led to a deepening of the threat perception of regional states. Because these terrorist organizations target the stability and security of the region by using these weapons. At this point, it can be argued that the main plan behind the USA decision to withdraw is to create this power vacuum that will plunge the region into chaos.
[1]Jeff Seldin, “Pentagon Downplays $7B in US Military Equipment Left in Afghanistan”, Voice of America, https://www.voanews.com/a/pentagon-downplays-7-billion-in-us-military-equipment-left-in-afghanistan/6549546.html, (Date of Accession: 19.12.2022).
[2]Nolan Fahrenkopf, “Taliban, Islamic State arm Themselves with Weapons US Left Behind”, The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/taliban-islamic-state-arm-themselves-with-weapons-us-left-behind-167960, (Date of Accession: 19.12.2022).
[3]“Six Police Killed in Militant Ambush in Northwest Pakistan”, RFE/RL, https://www.rferl.org/a/pakistan-militants-attack-police/32133125.html, (Date of Accession: 19.12.2022).
[4]“Weapons Left by US in Afghanistan Being Used by Militants Against Security Forces in KP”, SAMAA, https://www.samaaenglish.tv/news/40021607, (Date of Accession: 19.12.2022).
[5]“طالبان پاکستانی: با روحیه و جنگ افزاری که در پاکستان داریم میSputnikتوانیم چندین دهه بجنگیم” , https://l24.im/B6grsR, (Date of Accession: 19.12.2022).
[6]“Afghanistan: Deadly Suicide Attack at Russian Embassy in Kabul”, Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/5/suicide-bomb-blast-near-russian-embassy-in-kabul-afghan-police, (Date of Accession: 19.12.2022).
[7]“Islamic State Claims Responsibility for Attack on Pakistani Embassy in Kabul”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/islamic-state-claims-responsibility-attack-pakistani-embassy-kabul-2022-12-04/, (Date of Accession: 19.12.2022).
[8]Kathryn Tyson, “Salafi-Jihadi Global Tracker”, Critical Threats, https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/al-qaeda-global-tracker/islamic-state-increases-attacks-as-pakistani-taliban-negotiates, (Date of Accession: 19.12.2022).
[9] Ibid.
[10] “Weapons Left by US Troops in Afghanistan found On Terrorists Killed at LoC: Maj Gen Chandpuria”, The Times of India, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/weapons-left-by-us-troops-in-afghanistan-found-on-terrorists-killed-at-loc-maj-gen-chandpuria/articleshow/89684068.cms, (Date of Accession: 19.12.2022).
