French President Emmanuel Macron visited the United States (US) between 29 November and 2 December 2022. Macron made a statement to the French news channel TF1 during his visit. In an interview published on December 3, 2022, Macron pointed out that Europe must prepare its future security architecture. The French president also stated that if Russian President Vladimir Putin were to negotiate to end the war in Ukraine, the West should consider how to address Moscow’s security concerns.[1]
Nevertheless, one of the most striking points in Macron’s statements is his emphasis on Europe’s “future security architecture.” As can be understood from Macron’s statements, the security concept is planned to be shaped in a framework where Europe will stand on its own feet. In other words, Macron’s emphasis on security architecture is Eurocentric rather than transatlantic-oriented. Moreover, the French President wants this architecture to include security commitments to Russia.
Furthermore, Macron made the following statements about how the West’s approach to Russia should be:[2]
“As Russian President Vladimir Putin has always said, one of the essential points we need to address is the fear of reaching the doorstep of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the deployment of weapons that could threaten Russia.”
In this context, it is not surprising that France is the country that has come to the agenda by making a security commitment to Russia within the West. In his remarks, Macron highlighted the concerns that Russia claims to have heard from NATO. It should also be considered that Macron’s statements questioning the alliance in the past years and that he is the European leader most open to dialogue with Putin in the current process.
Therefore, if Russia takes a step back, it can be said that the Paris administration will be the most open party to communication with Moscow in NATO. Parallels can be drawn between Macron’s policy and the policies pursued by former French President Charles De Gaulle. This similarity is more clearly seen when one considers that the Paris administration left NATO’s military flank under de Gaulle and that Macron is in a sense sceptical of the alliance.
On the other hand, the fact that the French President made these statements during his visit to the US makes Macron’s words even more important. In particular, the fact that Olaf Scholz, who succeeded the previous German Chancellor Angela Merkel after leaving her post in 2021, could not be as effective as Merkel led to Macron becoming more prominent in Europe. In other words, it can be argued that France stands out in European politics rather than Germany. In addition, the fact that Berlin is the European country that had the closest relations with Moscow, especially before the war began, maybe narrowed Germany’s field of action in the current process.
On the other hand, like Macron, Scholz has made statements aimed at addressing Moscow’s security concerns. On December 1, 2022, the German Chancellor proposed that if Moscow abandons aggression against its neighbors, Europe must return to the pre-war peace order with Russia and solve all common security problems.[3]
The point that draws attention to Scholz’s statement is that the solution envisaged to be realized with Russia is “Eurocentric.” The two most powerful leaders of the European Union (EU) are therefore ready to address Moscow’s security concerns if the war ends.
Moreover, while the tenth month of the Russia-Ukraine War has entered, Europe has been the region most adversely affected by the war. The war is taking place on the European continent. In this context, it is seen that Europe is gradually running out of energy. As a matter of fact, the statements of Macron and Scholz can be read as a reflection of this.
On the other hand, various countries in Europe reacted sharply to Macron’s statements. In addition to Ukraine, Latvia, Sweden, and Finland have been critics of Macron.[4] It is not surprising that the countries that have reacted the most to Macron are the Baltic states. In the current conjuncture, the Baltic countries are the states that have the threat perception from Moscow. Sweden and Finland decided to join NATO under the influence of the war and put an end to the neutrality policy they had been following for years.
Furthermore, it can be argued that one of the most important reasons for the criticism of Macron is that the current conjuncture is advancing against Moscow. Macron’s security commitment to Russia may therefore have been perceived by the Baltic states as a sign of weakness.
In addition to all these, there are serious disagreements within NATO about what kind of attitude should be taken towards Russia. It can be argued that the UK and the US are positioned at a different point than the France-Germany duo. Therefore, it can be foreseen that London and Washington may adopt a negative attitude towards Moscow regarding the security commitment. These countries think that Russia is the one who should provide the actual commitment to security.
In this context, it can be argued that Germany and France represent one front within NATO, while the UK and the US represent another front. Therefore, while the Paris-Berlin duo wants the war to end as soon as possible, it can be said that London and Washington are calculating the prolongation of the war. As can be understood, there are disagreements between the US-UK duo and the main representatives of Continental Europe.
Consequently, Macron’s guarantees, which address Europe’s future security architecture and address security concerns of Russia, are met with major opposition, exposing the division within the Western World. Especially given the opposition of the Baltic states and Eastern European countries to the security concept presented by the French President, it is extremely difficult for this plan to be accepted in Europe.
[1] “Macron Says New Security Architecture Should Give Guarantees for Russia”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-says-new-security-architecture-should-give-guarantees-russia-2022-12-03/, (Date of Accession: 11.12.2022).
[2] “Macron’s Idea of ‘Security Guarantees’ to Russia Faces Backlash”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/macrons-idea-of-security-guarantees-to-russia-faces-backlash/, (Date of Accession: 11.12.2022).
[3] Ibid.
[4] “Ukraine, Baltics Rebuke Macron for Suggesting ‘Security Guarantees’ for Russia”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-baltics-rebuke-macron-suggesting-security-guarantees-russia-2022-12-05/, (Date of Accession: 11.12.2022).
