Although Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s efforts to incorporate France in the Azerbaijan negotiations, it is possible to argue that this situation has harmed the normalization process. Furthermore, Pashinyan’s actions discredit the European Union’s (EU) respectable stance in the quest for peace.
Despite Russia, Armenia’s attempt to undermine the negotiating procedures is primarily aimed at restricting Moscow’s influence. Because Pashinyan is a pro-Western actor, and one of his political aims is to reduce Armenia’s reliance on Russia. France, on the other hand, is trying to become the only mediating actor in the region and wants to prove that Moscow’s efforts for a peace agreement are insufficient.
On the other hand, it should be noted that the current geopolitical situation provides serious advantages to Azerbaijan. Because, while the West’s two adversaries, Russia and Iran, serve as Armenia’s allies, France’s actions also hinder the EU’s constructive efforts. This means preserving the current status quo.
The United States (US), on the other hand, advocates for the Karabakh Armenians to be granted a cultural or different status. This leads the US to a biased position in favor of Armenia, which is far from mediating. Because the Washington administration desires to become an effective power in the region by giving Karabakh a new status.
At this point, the US, Russia, and France’s supporting Armenia is hindering the peace process. This makes it difficult for the parties to compromise. All of this raises the prospect of another armed conflict. As a result, if Armenia fails to take the expected measures in the peace talks, it would not be surprising if the Azerbaijani Army considers taking a military action. Because of this, the current process is in Azerbaijan’s best interests. Because the Baku administration is determined to liberate the other occupied regions.
The Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) Collective Security Council held on November 23-23, 2022 in Yerevan, Armenia’s capital, should also be mentioned. Because the meeting plainly disclosed the member nations’ approaches to the Moscow government. Pashinyan, made remarks criticizing Kremlin leadership, claiming that the CSTO was ineffective and opened discussion about leaving the organization.[1]
Moreover, Pashinyan had given messages at the extraordinary meeting held in October 2022 that they could leave the organization.[2] This had caused Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to criticize Pashinyan.[3] Despite this, Pashinyan maintained its stance on November 22-23, 2022, and this did not go unnoticed. While Yerevan is opening up to the West, it is also attempting to overcome its isolation in Karabakh by putting pressure on Russia.
In conclusion, Pashinyan seeks to create chaos inside the CSTO in order to fend off criticism for breaking the Brussels and Sochi Agreements and thus bring France into the mediation proceedings, despite the fact that it is a party to the Karabakh conflict. This implies abandoning the pursuit of peace in Azerbaijan-Armenia relations. Already, the process shows that the dynamics of the conflict are becoming closer than ever.
[1] “Пашинян не подписал декларацию ОДКБ: недоумение Лукашенко”, Mignews, https://mignews.com/news/politic/pashinyan-ne-podpisal-deklaraciyu-odkb-nedoumenie-lukashenko-popalo-na-video.html, (Date of Accession: 29.11.2022).
[2] Sabir Askeroğlu, “Армяно-российская напряженность и Кавказ в контексте ОДКБ”, ANKASAM, shorturl.at/aboE2, (Date of Accession: 01.12.2022).
[3] Ibid.
