Does the US Want a Civil War in Afghanistan?

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On September 29, 2022, the United States (US) Special Envoy to Afghanistan Tom West suggested that there is a possibility of a resumption of the civil war in Afghanistan.[1] This statement once again brought up the debates that the US wanted to drag Afghanistan into civil war. Because, although the US withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021, it continues its steps to prevent stability in the country.

At this point, the Taliban administration, which has been ruling Afghanistan for more than a year, has not been recognized by any state or international organization. In this case, it is effective that the US is a prime player of the international system and that the international community is largely looking at the Washington administration’s attitude toward relations with the Taliban.

The US, aside from taking steps to pave the way for recognition; continues to make moves that will deepen chaotic situation in the country in question. It can be claimed that the US was preparing to say “We have withdrawn from your country, but you have failed to manage it,” to the Taliban, to whom the US has failed to destroy during the twenty-year period of military intervention and ultimately had to negotiate in Qatar’s capital, Doha.

As a matter of fact, the US, despite its withdrawal from Afghanistan, first blocked national reserves of the country in question and then transferred them to a Swiss-based bank under the name of “Afghan Fund.” The Fund is envisaged to fulfill the function of the Central Bank of Afghanistan.[2] In this sense, absence of Taliban in the fund creates a Taliban reality that is excluded from Afghanistan’s monetary policies. In a sense, there is a situation where the Taliban, who is in power in Afghanistan, is prevented from being the government by the US. This brings along inadequacy of the Taliban in eliminating employment problems and resulting poverty in the country. At this point, it can be argued that the game the US wants to establish aims to make Afghan people, who are impoverished every day, rebel against Taliban administration.

In fact, countries in the region are aware of this plan of the US. As a matter of fact, statements made by representatives of Russia, China and Pakistan at the United Nations (UN) meeting on Afghanistan on September 28, 2022 are very important in terms of revealing this awareness. For example, in her assessment of Afghan Fund, Anna Vestinian, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN, said, “Reportedly, this money will not be accessible by Afghan authorities and will be spent on some temporary socio-economic and humanitarian projects. We call on the stolen assets to be returned to the Afghan people immediately.”[3] Again, within the framework of same awareness, Moscow administration approved grain and oil exports to Afghanistan in order to prevent the deepening of economic problems in Afghanistan.[4]

Similarly, on September 28, 2022, Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China Wang Wenbin made statements about the Afghan Problem and called on international community to act objectively on Afghanistan. In this context, Wenbin stated that social order in the country in question was gradually restored and drew attention to negative consequences of steps to isolate Afghanistan from international community.[5]

It can be stated that Pakistan has the same perspective. The statements made by Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari on September 28, 2022 are extremely important in terms of showing the perspective of the Islamabad administration, which thinks that the solution of Afghanistan-centered problems can be overcome with an approach based on cooperation. Zardari said that the international community should improve its relations with the Taliban instead of isolating Afghanistan. In addition, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan stated that national reserves of Afghanistan belong to the Afghan people. According to Zardari, he argued that the isolation of Afghanistan would benefit radical terrorist organizations.[6]

It should be emphasized that Zardari’s stance is shared by other regional states. As a matter of fact, states such as Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and India, instead of humanitarian aid activities, project-based cooperation and isolating the Taliban from the international community; express at every opportunity that they are ready to contribute to Afghanistan’s stability, security, peace and prosperity thanks to their attitudes that develop de-facto cooperation and carries out a proactive diplomacy. At this point, the reality that the isolation of Afghanistan, which Zardari draws attention to, will benefit radical terrorist organizations, should be opened to discussion along with the West’s claims that a civil war may break out in Afghanistan.

It seems that the US wants to drag Afghanistan into a civil war by isolating Afghanistan from international community, by making moves that will deepen poverty in the country, and by taking steps to make it difficult for the Taliban to overcome the recognition problem. For example, the United States wishes to abolish visa liberalization and expand sanctions on Taliban rulers.[7] In this regard, the Washington administration is vetoed by Russia and China, permanent members of the UN Security Council.

Another issue that deepens recognition problem of Taliban is the air operations carried out by the US in Afghanistan within the framework of the alleged fight against the terrorist organization Al Qaeda. In particular, killing of the leader of Al-Qaeda terrorist organization, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, in an attack in Kabul brought along discussions that Taliban violated the Doha Agreement and increased pressure of the international community on Taliban administration.

Moreover, it is possible to suggest that the US also encourages radicalization in Afghanistan. For the images showing that the terrorists who are members of terrorist organization State al-Iraq and al-Sham (DEASH) in Syria and Iraq were transported to Afghanistan under the American escort, have preserved their place in memories. As a matter of fact, main actor who took advantage of the power gap after US withdrew from the country in question was the DEASH terrorist organization. That’s why, the US can use this terrorist organization as a means of increasing ethnic and sectarian violence. Because there is a claim that one of the targets of Washington administration in process of withdrawal from Afghanistan is the increase of radicalization in country, this radicalization causes regional chaos, on one hand, through Wakhan Corridor to China; on the other hand, its spread to Muslims of Russia through Central Asia. Frankly, Beijing administration is the key actor who defies the global hegemony of the United States, and Moscow is the historical “other” that provides the consensual element of American leadership, which increases the accuracy of such claims. The common-sense approaches of the regional states that are taking care to bring Afghanistan to the ground of co-operation are closely related to the risk they see.

As a result, it can be considered that West’s words that there may be civil war in Afghanistan are a confession to the plans of the US, or a sign in the least of all terms. The Washington administration may want to drag the region into chaos, and therefore, as a geopolitical significance, it may aim to bring Afghanistan, which is the heart of Eurasia, back into a civil war. But the constructive position of regional states to attract Afghanistan to an environment of international cooperation through projects makes it difficult for Washington to do so.


[1] H. Andrew Schwartz, “A Conversation with Thomas West in the Context of Afghanistan One Year Later”, CSIS, https://www.csis.org/analysis/conversation-thomas-west-context-afghanistan-one-year-later, (Date of Accession: 30.09.2022).

[2] Ahmad Khan Dawlatyar, “The Afghan Fund: What Does the USA Aim?”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/the-afghan-fund-what-does-the-usa-aim/?lang=en, (Date of Accession: 30.09.2022).

[3] “Russia Calls for Release of Afghan Assets”, Tolonews, https://tolonews.com/business-180060, (Date of Accession: 30.09.2022).

[4] “Russia ‘Tentatively’ Approves Oil, Grain Exports for Afghanistan”, Voice of America, https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-tentatively-approves-oil-grain-for-afghanistan-/6767290.html, (Date of Accession: 30.09.2022).

[5] “China Urges Objective Stance over Afghanistan’s Taliban”, CTGN, https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-09-28/China-urges-objective-stance-over-Afghanistan-s-Taliban-1dHjb8VxQCQ/index.html, (Date of Accession: 30.09.2022).

[6] “وزیر خارجه پاکستان: طالبان هنوز توانایی مقابله با گروه‌های افراطی را ندارند”, Tolonews, https://www.afintl.com/202209288077, (Date of Accession: 30.09.2022).

[7] Ahmad Khan Dawlatyar, “What Does the United States Hope to Achieve with UAVs in Afghanistan?”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/what-does-the-united-states-hope-to-achieve-with-uavs-in-afghanistan/?lang=en, (Date of Accession: 30.09.2022).

Dr. Doğacan BAŞARAN
Dr. Doğacan BAŞARAN
Dr. Doğacan BAŞARAN, 2014 yılında Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü’nden mezun olmuştur. Yüksek lisans derecesini, 2017 yılında Giresun Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Uluslararası İlişkiler Anabilim Dalı’nda sunduğu ‘’Uluslararası Güç İlişkileri Bağlamında İkinci Dünya Savaşı Sonrası Hegemonik Mücadelelerin İncelenmesi’’ başlıklı teziyle almıştır. Doktora derecesini ise 2021 yılında Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Uluslararası İlişkiler Anabilim Dalı‘nda hazırladığı “İmparatorluk Düşüncesinin İran Dış Politikasına Yansımaları ve Milliyetçilik” başlıklı teziyle alan Başaran’ın başlıca çalışma alanları Uluslararası ilişkiler kuramları, Amerikan dış politikası, İran araştırmaları ve Afganistan çalışmalarıdır. Başaran iyi derecede İngilizce ve temel düzeyde Farsça bilmektedir.

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