At the 77th Session of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly held in New York on September 20, 2022, the Foreign Ministers of the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development (GUAM) members came together on the sidelines and held the 39th Cabinet meeting of GUAM.[1] After the meeting, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova signed a protocol on the determination of the country of origin of the goods. In addition, it was announced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine that a free trade zone was established between the GUAM countries.
In the statements made, it was stated that the members would take steps to improve cooperation within the framework of GUAM and focus on infrastructure works, especially trade, transportation and energy. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitri Kuleba; called on Georgia, Azerbaijan and Moldova to assist in the rebuilding of war-affected Ukrainian regions.[2]
Although Moscow’s hand was seen as strong in the Russia-Ukraine War due to the energy card, the war lasted longer than the Kremlin expected, faced a strong counter-attack, attempts to annex the regions that could not be obtained with military force through referendums, and finally, the partial mobilization of many Russians. It has caused its citizens to organize protests and attempt to flee the country. This is considered a sign of weakness.
The regional states make good use of the advantages and disadvantages of the war. Because the search for an alternative route and resource to Russia has increased in order to prevent the energy and food crisis. In this context, the Middle Corridor, which has been on the agenda frequently in recent months, has come to the fore as an important route for the global supply chain to continue without interruption.
The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (THTR), known as the Middle Corridor, has a nature that centers the relations between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan and represents transportation from Asia to Europe. Azerbaijan stands out as a country that takes an active role in both the Middle Corridor and GUAM and turns the effects and damages of war into an advantage.
Azerbaijan is positioned neutrally with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine in the Eurasian geography and develops an approach based on common interests. As a matter of fact, GUAM, consisting of post-Soviet countries, determines its place in the changing regional geopolitical order after the war with both the Middle Corridor and its free economic zone. At this point, it is necessary to examine GUAM in more detail in order to make sense of the ground on which the GUAM Free Trade Zone was established and tried to be developed.
GUAM was established during the Second European Council Summit held in Strasbourg in 1997, under the name of “GUAM Consultation Form”. It was raised to the status of an association with the Yalta Charter signed by the member states in 2001, and it became an “organization” with the signing of the organization charter in 2006. The main objectives of GUAM can be listed as follows:[3]
- Strengthening democratic values
- Ensuring the rule of law and respect for human rights
- Ensuring sustainable development
- Strengthening international and regional security and stability
- Deepening European integration to create a common security space and broaden economic and humanitarian cooperation.
- Development of potential in socio-economic, transportation, energy, scientific, technical and humanitarian fields
- Promoting political interaction and practical cooperation in areas of mutual interest.
From 1999 to 2005, Uzbekistan also took part in the organization, and with the participation of Uzbekistan, the organization began to be called “GUUAM”.[4] Türkiye also participated in GUAM as an observer.[5] In addition, an agreement on the establishment of a free trade area between the countries was signed in 2002.[6]
In 2005, Uzbekistan announced that it would leave the organization and claimed that the group was not an effective mechanism to strengthen relations or promote integration among member states.[7] However, today, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova continue their goal of constructing the Europe-Caucasus-Asia Transport Corridor and turn into a remarkable platform.
Considering the date when Uzbekistan left its membership, it should be remembered that Central Asia witnessed a process of color revolutions supported by the United States of America (USA). Therefore, the Tashkent administration wanted to prevent the color revolutions from spreading to itself by leaving the aforementioned group, which had a pro-Western attitude, especially the USA attitude. As a matter of fact, Russia also intervened harshly in all developments outside its control in member states, which are post-Soviet countries. For example, as a result of Tbilisi’s pro-Western policies, the Five-Day War took place in 2008. Similarly, Ukraine’s turning to the West resulted in Russia’s military intervention in this country in 2014 and 2022. Moldova, on the other hand, faced economic sanctions when it acted against Russia’s wishes.
For all these reasons, it can be said that Russia’s influence is behind the inability of GUAM to make sufficient progress in the process that has continued since its establishment. However, the newly signed free trade protocol reveals that GUAM member states are chasing alternative opportunities against Russia by prioritizing their own interests.
It is clear that the protocol on free trade is an opportunity to rebuild Ukraine after the war. In this sense, member states are likely to help the country in question. Because the threat perception based in Russia is a risk factor for all members. For this reason, states are of the opinion that it is necessary to act together in order to get out of this process with the least damage.
In addition, the statements of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, Jeyhun Bayramov, support this view. Bayramov emphasized that the situation in Ukraine is a source of serious concern and that it is important to resolve the problem through diplomacy and on the basis of international law, in accordance with the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, especially within the internationally recognized borders of states. Noting that Azerbaijan is one of the first countries to deliver humanitarian aid to Ukraine, Bayramov stated that Baku has provided 15 million Euros of aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the war.[8]
Azerbaijan and Moldova, the two member states of GUAM, are negotiating for natural gas supply. One of the main issues of Moldovan Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilitsa’s visit to Azerbaijan in October 2022 is to import natural gas from Azerbaijan as an alternative to Russia.[9] As an alternative to the Nord Stream-I Pipeline, Azerbaijan is bringing forward different plans to meet Europe’s natural gas demand. The Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania Pipeline (AGRI) is one of these projects.
Another remarkable point in this geo-strategic axis, which is expected to strengthen in the axis of Azerbaijan and Ukraine, is that Azerbaijan has taken back many occupied territories during the GUAM Presidency.[10] In the new term, Ukraine will serve as the Term President of GUAM. In this sense, it is among the wishes of the member states that Ukraine regains its occupied lands and achieves results depending on the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. As a result, GUAM’s free trade area protocol can be evaluated as a new stance and a search for unity developed against Russia in post-Soviet countries.
[1] “Tbilisi, Baku, Kyiv and Chisinau Sign Protocol On Improving Free Trade”, Newsfeed, https://news.am/eng/news/721343.html, (Date of Accession:22.09.2022).
[2] ‘‘Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova Will Create a Free Trade Zone’’, Aze.media, https://aze.media/ukraine-georgia-azerbaijan-and-moldova-will-create-a-free-trade-zone/, (Date of Accession:22.09.2022).
[3] “About GUAM’’, The Organization for Democracy and Economic Development-Guam, https://guam-organization.org/en/about-the-organization-for-democracy-and-economic-development-guam/, (Date of Accession: 22.09.2022).
[4] “Tbilisi, Baku, Kyiv and Chisinau Sign Protocol on Improving Free Trade”, Newsfeed, https://news.am/eng/news/721343.html, (Date of Accession:22.09.2022).
[5] “GUAM-DEKÖ (Gürcistan, Ukrayna, Azerbaycan, Moldova-Demokrasi ve Ekonomik Kalkinma Örgütü): Uluslararasi Örgüt Künyesi”, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Dışişleri Bakanlığı, https://www.mfa.gov.tr/guam-info.tr.mfa, (Date of Accession: 22.09.2022).
[6] “Tbilisi, Baku, Kyiv and Chisinau Sign Protocol on Improving Free Trade”, Newsfeed, https://news.am/eng/news/721343.html, (Date of Accession:22.09.2022).
[7] Antoine Blua, “Uzbekistan: Tashkent Withdraws From GUUAM, Remaining Members Forge Ahead”, Radio Free Radio Liberty, https://www.rferl.org/a/1100023.html, (Date of Accession: 22.09.2022).
[8] “Azerbaijani FM Attends 39th Meeting of GUAM Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs”, Azertag, https://azertag.az/en/xeber/Azerbaijani_FM_attends_39th_meeting_of_GUAM_Council_of_Ministers_of_Foreign_Affairs-2300306, (Date of Accession:23.09.2022).
[9] “Moldovan Prime Minister to Discuss Gas Supply in Azerbaijan”, Apa.az, https://apa.az/en/energy-and-industry/moldovan-prime-minister-to-discuss-gas-supply-in-azerbaijan-385375, (Date of Accession: 23.09.2022).
[10] Taras Kuzio, “Türkiye Forges a New Geo-Strategic Axis from Azerbaijan to Ukraine”, Rusi.org, https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/Türkiye-forges-new-geo-strategic-axis-azerbaijan-ukraine, (Date of Accession:22.09.2022).
