After the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, there has been a serious concern in the European Union (EU) due to the dependence on Russian gas and oil. Unlike other member states, Bulgaria’s high dependence on Russian energy has created some doubts about the country’s abandonment of Russian gas and oil. Because Sofia supplies 77% of its gas from the Russian state company Gazprom, while the only oil refinery, the largest in the Balkans, belongs to the Russian Lukoil.
Bulgaria, once considered the Soviet Union’s “staunchest Warsaw Pact ally” but joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 2004 and the EU in 2007, began to paint a friendly image with Western countries and therefore attracted the reaction of the Moscow administration. After the Russia-Ukraine War, Sofia’s support for Western sanctions accelerated the Bulgarian Government’s orientation towards the West. In this context, in his first statements after the war, former Prime Minister of Bulgaria Kirill Petkov summarized Sofia’s position as in the following:[1]
“We are fully back the existing sanctions against Russia. We work with the EU to ensure that these sanctions have maximum power, but a thing that we cannot afford is to stop the import of oil and the import of gas.”
As it will be recalled, on March 31, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree about the payment of Russian gas in rubles by “unfriendly” countries of Russia, including Bulgaria. After that, the Bulgarian and Polish state gas companies refused to pay in rubles. Consequently, Gazprom has stopped the distribution of gas to both countries.
For many years, the Kremlin’s ability to influence decisions in Sofia has been based on its de-facto dominance of various parts of Bulgaria’s energy sector, including oil, gas and nuclear energy. For many years, the United States (US) has supported Sofia in opening the Bulgaria-Greece liquefied gas (LNG) connector, which will facilitate access to different sources of supply from suppliers in Central Asia, primarily Azerbaijan. Sofia, however, has delayed the completion of this cross-border pipeline for a long time in favor of deeper relations with Gazprom.
Due to Bulgaria’s support for Ukraine, Moscow has used the “gas” card to punish the country by cutting off flows. In response to this move, Petkov stated on May 20, 2022, that “one of Putin’s goals was to bring down the government, which has steered a more EU-friendly course than previous Bulgarian governments.”[2]
Following the gas cut, the Sofia administration said that they are ready to stop the supply of Russian gas and have plans for alternative sources. If the plans are successful, Bulgaria will become a country with greater energy independence at lower prices. In this context, the Petkov administration, which has taken a tough stance against Russia, expelled 70 Russian diplomats and spies and accelerated the search for alternative energy sources, including the operationalization of the gas pipeline on the Greek border, which was delayed for many years.[3] In fact, it has been announced that the Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria (ICGB) Pipeline, which connects Greece’s Komotini to Stara Zagora in central Bulgaria, will start pumping gas in both directions in July 2022.
Although a short link, the new 180-kilometer pipeline, which promises to bring energy security to a wider area of Europe and will start commercial deliveries in September 2022, is planned to be powered by LNG supplies, which will include Qatar, Algeria and the United States, from the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), an extension of the Southern Gas Corridor carrying gas from Azerbaijan.
In the light of recent global events, Azerbaijan has come to the fore as one of the most reliable energy suppliers in Europe. Especially after the war, the importance of the Southern Gas Corridor for the countries of Southeastern Europe has increased considerably. In this context, Bulgaria is taking a leading role in breaking the Russian energy monopoly in Europe by ensuring the supply of Azerbaijani gas to Europe via TAP within the framework of the agreement signed with Azerbaijan.
The fact that Bulgaria will start receiving gas from Azerbaijan as of July 1, 2022, is critical for the energy security of Southeast Europe. Once the ICGB is launched, 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas will be supplied annually from Azerbaijan and in the next stage, this volume will increase to 3 bcm which corresponds to the current capacity of the interconnector.[4] As a result of the search for alternative gas, Sofia has reached the level of “strategic partnership” with Baku in the field of energy and has therefore achieved great success in energy security.[5]
Bulgaria, which handled to manage the gas crisis despite being one of the first countries to experience gas cuts among EU countries after the war, attracted attention with its efficient and sustainable steps to get rid of its energy dependence on Russia. However, Petkov resigned, and the caretaker government took office due to the fact that he could not get a vote of confidence in the parliament without realizing all the gas diversification plans. In this setting, it has begun to be seen that there is a change of course in the search for solutions to the energy crisis.
The caretaker government, appointed by Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, has sought to create a more moderate atmosphere towards Russia, unlike Petkov. Caretaker Prime Minister Galab Donev, who is currently considered “pro-Russian” in the Bulgarian public opinion, has put the resumption of energy flow from Russia on the table as soon as he came to power and has given a message that gas imports from Russia could continue as a result.
Despite Petkov’s efforts to make Sofia less dependent on Russian gas, the caretaker government described the supply situation as “serious, if not critical,” saying that Bulgaria’s gas supply could last only until September 2022 and laid the political-economic basis for starting gas trade with Russia.
Following negotiations by the Petkov Government to ensure the delivery of seven tankers of LNG from an American company, the caretaker government announced that it would accept only one of the LNG tankers, citing the high cost of making room for coming supplies at the terminals, and the gas agreement with Azerbaijan would be renegotiated. The caretaker government also criticized the decision to expel Russian spies and diplomats as putting “the energy sector, the economy and the people” at risk.[6]
Following the government change in Bulgaria, Energy Minister Rossen Christov’s statement that Bulgaria has no choice but to restart negotiations with Gazprom is an indication of a change in Sofia’s efforts to diversify energy sources, which it has been accelerating for months. Hristov also accused Petkov of worsening ties with Moscow and making future negotiations difficult.[7]
All these developments have led to the idea that the efforts of Bulgaria to diversify gas supply carried out during the Petkov era will be in vain. Because it is seen that the steps taken in the context of energy security as part of the support given to Ukraine are being re-evaluated. This brings with it some criticisms that Bulgaria will be shuttling in the East-West balance as it has been in the past. Because the Sofia administration’s resumption of negotiations with Gazprom can be interpreted as a development that will increase Russia’s influence in Bulgarian politics.
Ultimately, it is still unclear whether Bulgaria will remain a transit hub in Southeast Europe within the scope of energy security, or whether it will again fall under the Russian influence. However, it is obvious that this issue will be guided by the course that the country will adopt in its energy policies. Because it is brought forward that the steps taken by the caretaker government were not taken to ensure security of supply and were based on a geopolitical preference. However, on the contrary, Sofia may also have chosen to act pragmatically, considering that it cannot ignore the need for Russian gas due to the war in Ukraine.
[1] “Bulgaria Can’t Afford a Ban On Russian Energy: PM”, Barrons, https://www.barrons.com/news/bulgaria-can-t-afford-a-ban-on-russian-energy-pm-01646741107?tesla=y, (Date of Accession: 24.08.2022).
[2] “Weekly Data: Can Bulgaria Live Without Russian Gas?”, Energy Monitor, https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/networks-grids/weekly-data-can-bulgaria-live-without-russian-gas, (Date of Accession: 24.08.2022).
[3] “Bulgaria Expels 70 Russian Diplomats over Spying Allegations”, Anadolu Agency, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/bulgaria-expels-70-russian-diplomats-over-spying-allegations/2624995, (Date of Accession: 24.08.2022).
[4] “Bulgaria to Receive Azerbaijani Gas Through IGB From 1 July”, CE Energy, https://ceenergynews.com/oil-gas/bulgaria-to-receive-azerbaijani-gas-through-igb-from-1-july/, (Date of Accession: 24.08.2022).
[5] “Petkov: Bulgaria, Azerbaijan Are Strategic Partners in Gas Supply” NEWS,
https://news.am/eng/news/712988.html, (Date of Accession: 24.08.2022).
[6] “Bulgaria Risks a Relapse into Its Addiction to Russia’s Gazprom”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgaria-risks-a-relapse-into-its-addiction-to-russias-gazprom/, (Date of Accession: 24.08.2022).
[7] “Bulgaria Minister Says New Negotiations with Gazprom ‘Inevitable’”, Balkan Insight, https://balkaninsight.com/2022/08/22/bulgaria-minister-says-new-negotiations-with-gazprom-inevitable/, Date of Accession: 24.08.2022).
