21 February 2022 has become an extraordinary day for world politics. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in the evening of that day, made his speech addressing to his nation, that took approximately an hour, and he declared that they are recognizing independence of People’s Republic of Donetsk (PRD) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), where the conflicts have been continuing for nearly eight years. This decision was globally resonated and concerns on Russia’s military invasion firstly to the region, later to Kiev.
After three days of recognizing PRD and LPR, Russia invaded Donbass early in the morning and the concerns became true. Russia imposed a blockade of Russia over Belarus, Donbass, and Crimea, and after a short time entering Donbass, firstly Capital Kyiv, then Kharkov, Kramatorsk, Mariupol, Mykolaiv and Odessa and many other cities were bombed, and the war titled “special operation” has started. Due to the attacks, civilian people of Ukraine have settled in shelters and some of them moved towards the borders of Poland and Romania, state of emergency was declared in the country and martial law was announced. There were also important developments such as the call for arm everyone who is able in Ukraine, evacuation of all Russian diplomats in Kyiv, and Ukraine cut her diplomatic relations with Russia. Those developments mean that peacebuilding in the region has become harder and many soldiers and civilians will lose their lives.
Putin tries to legitimate the war saying Russian citizens in the region faced tyranny and genocide for eight years. As he suggests, the Russian people living in the region was assimilated by Kyiv and Ukraine courts cannot provide the law against bloody crimes unbiased and independently. Besides Putin, including Russian citizens, expressed that the crimes against civilians will be punished.[1]
Russian leader, who had the authority to send soldiers from the Russian Parliament, has challenged to the world, he gave strong warnings against the European Union (EU), the North Atlantic Alliance Organization (NATO) and the United States (US) by signaling that he could expand operations by retaliating that what he did was a guarantee of what he would do. In fact, behind his confident speeches, there is the fact that Russia is the most important nuclear powers in the world.
This war between Russia and Ukraine is of great importance since it means that a nuclear power country will attack another state for the first time after the Second World War. Although many crises were faced during the Cold War period, which started after the Second World War, nuclear weapons did not come to the fore. Moreover, serious steps have been taken to reduce the production of nuclear weapons. However, Putin’s assertion that Ukraine is trying to have nuclear weapons and that Russia will not allow this has negative meanings for the coming days.
The most important question to be asked is, because of which developments the war will come to an end. Russia’s demands in this regard are as follows: Ukraine not to join NATO, NATO soldiers not to be deployed in regions close to the Russian borders, military exercises not to be held, and Crimea to be recognized as Russian territory. In fact, Russia wants Ukraine to remain as a buffer zone between NATO and its borders. However, Russia, which does not want to be a neighbor to NATO, will face such a neighborly relationship because of its own actions if it completely invades Ukraine.
In addition, Russia carried out the operation in question despite the fact that it was repeatedly stated that Ukraine would not be included in NATO. As for NATO’s recognition of Crimea, the organization finds the annexation of Crimea contrary to international law and considers it a disrespectful step against Ukraine’s territorial integrity. In this context, NATO will not recognize the annexation of Crimea by Russia.
Ukraine is incomparably weak in terms of military equipment compared to Russia. For this reason, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky calls for help to the whole world, especially NATO, the US and the EU. So, what does the West do in the face of these calls?
The West has introduced some sanctions by making statements condemning Russia’s military action. Germany decided to stop the Nord Stream-2 Project, the construction of which started in 2018 and cost 9.5 billion dollars; The USA banned economic investments in the annexed regions and stated that Moscow’s relations with Western capital markets would be cut off. The EU has stated that the Russian economy will be weakened, Russian assets in the EU will be frozen and Russian banks’ access to the EU financial market will be stopped.[2] In addition, the EU has decided to sanction 27 real and legal persons and 351 deputies, including the Spokesperson of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova.[3]
It is understood from the statements of EU Commission President Von Der Leyen that additional sanctions will come into effect. NATO, on the other hand, condemns Russia every time and publishes a message that Ukraine’s territorial integrity will be protected; however, it does not take concrete deterrent steps. This encourages Russia.
Based on all these developments, although Russia’s victory over the West and NATO cannot be mentioned, it can be said that the West has lost its deterrent against Russia. As a matter of fact, although the West has the potential to stop Russia, it is obvious that it is content with passive statements.
[1] “Путин объявил о специальной военной операции в Донбассе, Putin ob”yavil o spetsial’noy voyennoy operatsii v Donbasse”, Риа Новости, https://ria.ru/20220224/operatsiya-1774620380.html, (Date of Accession: 24.02.2022).
[2] “Еврокомиссия предложит новый пакет санкций против России, Yevrokomissiya predlozhit novyy paket sanktsiy protiv Rossii”, Газета.ру, https://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2022/02/24/17337961.shtml, (Date of Accession: 24.02.2022).
[3] Евросоюз ввел новые санкции против России, Yevrosoyuz vvel novyye sanktsii protiv Rossii, Тасс, https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/13821787, (Date of Accession: 24.02.2022).
