On August 15, 2021, Taliban declared its absolute victory by going into Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan and also with President Ashraf Ghani’s leaving the country.[1] In this process, although Western intelligence and media foreseen that Taliban will hold provinces in 90 days, Taliban succeeded this in a shorter time and without encountering serious resistance. In current situation, Taliban emerges as the most concrete reality of Afghanistan. But there is no clarify yet about where events will evolve in the future, who will be winner or loser. Because there are different views on the issue.
The most common of these views is that USA had to withdraw from the region and hegemony of Washington will decrease greatly in the medium and long term due to the image that the USA lost and damaged while withdrawing process. Determining that the USA spent a total of 2.261 trillion dollars in Afghanistan between 2001-2021 and the total number of people who lost their lives in this war was between 171 and 174 thousand by Brown University has been summarized the price paid of the USA in Afghanistan in simplest way.[2] At the same time, the people of Afghanistan have experienced a total destruction economically, socially and culturally.
Undoubtedly, the picture that USA left behind is not pleasant. Images of US planes leaving Kabul Airport and the chaotic environment will damage the public opinion of this country for many years to come. But the thesis that the Washington administration has suffered an absolute defeat that will affect the future of its global dominance is controversial. Because the withdrawal of USA from Afghanistan indicates that changing in its approach to global geopolitics.
As it is known, USA had intervened to Afghanistan that heart of the Asia, in accordance with the “Heartland Theory” of Halford Mackinder in line with the guidance of names such as Zbigniew Brzezinski and George Kennan who drew attention to the importance of dominating Eurasia. In the current situation, USA left this theory and switched to a policy that is closer to Alfred Thayer Mahan’s “Sea Power Theory” and Rimland Theory of Nicholas J. Spykman. The main rival for USA in the current international order is China and new strategies needs to be implemented accordingly. Thus, the policy towards to Pacific that has started in the Barack Obama period, continued in the period of Donald Trump and of Joe Biden. Besides it is not coincidence that US intention to withdraw from Afghanistan has started since Obamas’ period and is related with these strategies.
Especially, during the Trump period, the security discourse that started within the scope of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy, increasing in economic budget and military deployment in the Trump era[3] shows that Washington administration has turned its face from the geographies such as Afghanistan to seas.
In essence, with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the only certain reality is uncertainty in this country. The safe environment that form in the central Asia in the past years and the inability of terrorist groups to spread to this region has related with the deployment of American soldiers in the region and to their attracting target to US soldiers. The country that benefited from this situation was China. In fact, the long-term security environment that necessary for the continuation of the investments initiated within the scope of the Belt-Road Project has been to Beijing advantages’ and has led China to gain an influence in Central Asia that will surpass Russia. Hence, recently, Russia has been also discomfortable from this power change in the region. In this period that economic investments are at the forefront, Russia has drawn an image far from become an alternative to China.
The current situation of Afghanistan will cause new perceptions. Because the Central Asia countries that want to provide their own security, will more engage in defense cooperative policies. Accordingly, economic projects will be taken backseat at least for a while. Uncertainty is the biggest obstacle for investments. In this situation, it is clear that Russia, is still the most powerful actor of the region militarily will replace China which has risen to the first place in recent years in terms of its economic power and its influence on the countries of the region. As the first sign of this; the General secretary of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Stanislay Zas has explained that a new exercise will be held in the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border and the situation in Afghanistan will be discussed at the CSTO Security Council meeting that held in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, on Sept, 2021.[4] It is possible to say that Russia that has absolute power on CSTO unlike the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) can bring this organization to the fore. This situation suggests the possibility of a clandestine alliance between USA and Russia.
Another geopolitical goal that the USA aims to achieve when it leaves from the region is that Afghanistan under the leadership of Taliban, follows Sunni policies and to establish a balance against to Iran and increasing Sino-Iran rapprochement in the recent years. As it is known, Iran supported to Taliban against to existence of US in the region. But there are sectarian differences between Iran and Taliban and Iran’s support to Taliban for tactical reasons may become a strategic obstacle in the future. At this point, the statement that made by The Afghan ambassador to Tajikistan on August 18, 2021, should be carefully noted.[5] In his statement, ambassador rejected Taliban rule of his country and said Panjshir province, north of Kabul, would serve as a stronghold for resistance led by self-proclaimed acting president Amrullah Saleh.
The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan has led many analysts predicted that Chine will enter into Afghanistan with new projects, develop the country economically and cooperate with Taliban. As a matter of fact, important statement in this direction has reflected to media by both Taliban and China. But there is a reality that should not be forgotten. Taliban’s advance did not encounter any resistance. Possible resistances are also will start in the future period. In this sense Ahamd Shah Mesud’s son Amrullah Salih, who came to forefront with his struggle against Taliban and called as “legendary commander” announced that he started a resistance in Penshir against to Taliban. The resistance center is Penshir; the reason is that the region gives a natural defense opportunity geographically, it never fell into Taliban during the civil war in 1990s and the Qizilbash Turkmen, Tajik, Hazara and Uzbek populations resisted the Taliban in the region.
In summary, it is clear that the USA will try to shape the instability that may occur in the country while leaving Afghanistan in line with its own interests. Therefore, while the USA create an alliance in Indo-Pacific against to China, it desires to instability in the region that will affect China. With this reason, USA may see a Sunni Afghanistan under the Taliban administration for its own interests against both China and Iran. Consequently, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan should not be read as a ultimate defeat. Because it is too early to say who will win or who will lose in the region.
[1] “Taliban Kabil’e Girdi, Afganistan Cumhurbaşkanı Gani Ülkeyi Terk Etti”, CNN Türk, https://www.cnnturk.com/video/dunya/son-dakika-afganistan-taliban-dort-bir-yandan-baskent-kabile-girmeye-basladi, (Date of Accession: 18.08.2021).
[2] “US Costs to Date for the War in Afghanistan”, Watson Institute, https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/figures/2021/human-and-budgetary-costs-date-us-war-afghanistan-2001-2021, (Date of Accession: 28.07.2021).
[3] Laura Zhou, “US Moves to Boost Military Presence in Indo-Pacific Amid China “Threat””, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3125277/us-moves-boost-military-presence-indo-pacific-amid-china#:~:text=in%20the%20middle-,Laura%20Zhou,-in%20Beijing, (Date of Accession: 18.08.2021).
[4] Dmitri Chirciu, “Kolektif Güvenlik Anlaşması Örgütü Genel Sekreteri: “Taliban’ın Afganistan’ı Kontrol Altına Alması Endişelendiriyor””, Haberler, https://www.haberler.com/kolektif-guvenlik-anlasmasi-orgutu-genel-sekreteri-14334444-haberi/, (Date of Accession: 19.08.2021).
[5] “Afghan Envoy Says Hold-out Panjshir Province Can Resist Taliban Rule”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-conflict-tajikistan-diplo-idUKKBN2FJ1LW, (Erişim Tarihi: 19.08.2021).
