The rapid progress of the Taliban in Afghanistan evolved into a new phase with the siege of the capital Kabul by the Taliban elements on August 14, 2021, and therefore, on August 15, 2021, President of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani and the Afghan Government resigned. Thus, the Taliban took Kabul under their control and proved that they are the dominant power in Afghanistan.
Also, the Taliban’s statement that they will not attack while waiting for the city to be handed over to them, after the siege of Kabul, creates the impression that there is a course of action that has learned positive lessons from the experiences of the past. The expectations regarding the transformation in the country are towards the establishment of a transitional government.
In this context, Aamir Khan Muttaki, one of the top level leaders of the Taliban, is meeting with Former President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai, Chairman of the National Reconciliation Council of Afghanistan Abdullah Abdullah, and the leader of the Islamic Party of Afghanistan Gulbuddin Hekmatyar in Kabul. Those three people who met with Muttaki announced that they established a coordination council to hand over power in a healthy way. The establishment of such a council strengthens transitional government assertions.
At the transitional government point, although it was first come into question that a cabinet would be formed under the chairmanship of Ali Ahmed Celali, the former Minister of Interior of Afghanistan, this claim was refuted. There are currently two possibilities for the transitional government that is foreseen to be established in Afghanistan. The first of these is that the Taliban will establish a transitional government under the leadership of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and includes names such as Karzai, Abdullah, and Hekmatyar in the aforementioned government. The second possibility is the creation of a roadmap that will shape the future of Afghanistan through the convening of an international conference. The first scenario may result in the Taliban’s quickly establishing the ideological order that they demanded. The second possibility may pave the way for the Taliban to completely overcome the international legitimacy problem. Although it is not known which option the organization will choose in the current situation, both situations indicate that the transition to be experienced in the country can happen on a common sense basis.
The Taliban’s foreign contacts reveal that the movement cares about the legitimacy issue. The most important characteristic of Mullah Baradar is that he is the name that maintains the diplomatic contacts of the Taliban, anyway. This shows that Afghanistan still has an opportunity to move to a stable order that did not attract the reaction of the international community during the second Taliban period.
In the statement made by the representatives of the movement after the Taliban elements entered Kabul, indicating that there will be no restrictions on women’s working life also reveals that the concern for legitimacy is taken seriously and gives hope that human rights violations will not occur in the upcoming period. Similarly, it was announced by the Taliban that the ceremonies to be held by the Shias due to the Muharram would be allowed and the safety of the participants would be ensured. Therefore, if the Taliban act in accordance with their obligations in the Doha Agreement, it is obvious that a controlled transition will occur in the country.
Of course, the establishment of a stable and peaceful order in Afghanistan is the demand of all Afghan people. Even in anti-Taliban groups, as of August 15, 2021, relief that “At least the war is over.” has occurred. In short, if the Taliban builds the “New Afghanistan” in accordance with rationality, it may be possible to provide peace and stability in Afghanistan. In such a scenario, the risk of migration will also disappear, and not only in Afghanistan; a healthy atmosphere will be created for the entire region. For this reason, the position of the Taliban as an actor contributing to regional stability depends, first of all, on the positive relations it will establish with the states in the region.
When looked at Afghanistan’s neighbors, it can be said that Pakistan is satisfied with the current conjuncture. In fact, Pakistani officials see the Taliban’s entry into Kabul as the liberation of the Afghan people. Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, who are Afghanistan’s Central Asian neighbors, are concerned about the rise of radicalization in the country in question and are increasing security measures and military exercises. In other words, the possibility of the Taliban creating instability in the region worries Afghanistan’s Central Asian neighbors. In this context, it is seen that the states in the region are working closely with Russia. However, Moscow has announced that it will not withdraw its diplomatic personnel from Afghanistan. Considering the visits of the Taliban delegations to Moscow in the past, it can be said that the Taliban will alleviate the concerns of the Central Asian states by displaying a constructive attitude.
Likewise, China is preparing to see the Taliban as a legitimate actor and to recognize the “Islamic Emirate”, which is thought to be proclaimed together with the government to be established by the Taliban. The hosting of Mullah Baradar by Minister of Foreign Affairs of China, Wang Yi in July 2021 gave the signals of this.
This whole picture shows that there are important opportunities for Afghanistan’s future. In this regard, the Taliban needs to establish good relations not only with Afghanistan’s neighbors; but also with the Western World. In this sense, Turkey’s role in the construction process of the “New Afghanistan” is of great importance. Turkey can be a key actor in building regional and global peace, both by being a part of the Western World and with its Muslim identity, by acting as a bridge for the Taliban to open to the West. It is expected that the Taliban evaluate this situation.
The opposite scenario may result in the Taliban being isolated from the international community by repeating the mistakes they made in the past. If Afghanistan turns into geography where human rights violations and radicalization are exported to the world, there is a possibility that the country in question will face a new international intervention. Therefore, the real test for the Taliban begins now.
As a result, the entry of the Taliban in Kabul drew the attention of the international community to Afghanistan and some fears from the past came to light. However, the first messages from the Taliban are extremely positive. The movement has an opportunity to be positioned as a legitimate actor that contributes to the peace of Afghanistan in particular and the region in general. The time will tell whether the Taliban will take advantage of this opportunity or not.
